The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS on Sunday, Mar. 27, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Utah Jazz – $11,600 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
Luka Doncic has been a little disappointing lately from a ceiling perspective, but he continues to lead the league in usage rate. His salary has continued to slide on FanDuel, where he now has a 97% Bargain Rating. His ceiling in our Tournament Model is more than 10 fantasy points higher than the next point guard. Doncic also averages 3.5 more points per game at home this season.
This game against the Jazz is going to be played at a very slow pace. The Jazz rank 23rd in pace, while the Mavericks rank last. The total is the lowest on the slate at 214.5 points, and the Mavericks are one-point home favorites. Doncic ranks second in most drives with 22.1 per game, as he constantly has the ball in his hands. Prioritize Doncic on FanDuel, but he still has upside despite the slow game.
Top Value: Patrick Beverley at Boston Celtics – $4,600 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
The Timberwolves have lost two of their last three games with another tough test on the road against the Celtics tonight as six-point underdogs. Patrick Beverley is one of the best guard options on DraftKings at this salary. He continues to start and play a good amount of minutes. He is a scrappy player who can fill up the stat sheet and may have to score more with Malik Beasley out.
Over the last six games, Beverley is averaging 26.2 DraftKings points per game despite having one game where he only finished with 8.25 DraftKings points, as he was ejected after playing 10 minutes. The salary doesn’t quite make sense seeing as though he is playing as well as most of the Timberwolves starters. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings for guards.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden at Phoenix Suns – $10,000 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
Deciding between James Harden and Devin Booker in this spot was difficult, but Harden still has that triple-double upside that is tough to ignore. He is also cheaper than Booker on FanDuel now as well. Harden is second to Chris Paul this season with 10.1 assists per game. This is the second consecutive season Harden has averaged 22-plus points and 10-plus assists per game.
The Suns are a very strong defense that ranks third this season in defensive rating. However, they play at a little bit quicker of a pace, which makes this game a little more inviting for opponents. The 76ers are still 3.5-point road underdogs, but they always have a chance with Harden controlling the ball. He can get cooking from deep at any time and have a monster game.
Top Value: D’Angelo Russell at Boston Celtics– $6,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
The highest projected Plus/Minus player on FanDuel is D’Angelo Russell. His salary has dropped significantly, and he now has a 94% Bargain Rating. Pairing Russell with Doncic seems like the way to go on FanDuel tonight. Over the last six games, the minutes for Russell have been down. He has played 29.3 minutes per game while posting two games under 20 DraftKings points.
The Timberwolves have been the best team since the All-Star Break with a record of 12-4, but playing on the road against the Celtics will be very difficult. The Celtics lead the league in defensive rating, allowing a league-best 103.8 points per game. They also allow the lowest three-point percentage in the league. Very tough spot for Russell, but the price tag is just so inviting tonight.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Charlotte Hornets – $11,000 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel
The Nets destroyed the Heat on the road last night, which resulted in only 31 minutes for Kevin Durant after averaging 39 minutes per game in his previous four games. Kyrie Irving is now able to play home games, but you never know if he will decide to sit on this back-to-back. Regardless, Durant is going to be a great option to pay up for on this slate in this cupcake matchup.
The Hornets allow 114.5 points per game, which is the fourth-most in the league. It is mainly due to how fast they play, as they rank fifth in pace this season. These two teams are neck and neck in the standings as the season starts to wind down. The biggest draw to Durant and this game in general is that it has the highest total on the slate at 238.5 points, with the Nets implied for 122 points.
Top Value: Royce O’Neale at Dallas Mavericks – $4,000 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
The value at the small forward position is a ghost town per usual. One player who we can always rely on being down here with upside is Royce O’Neale. He’s probably best served for cash games, as O’Neale is not a high usage kind of player. A good goal for him is getting up to around 20 DraftKings points, as he will be one of the best salary savers in a stars-and-scrubs lineup build.
O’Neale will be relied upon for his defense against Luka Doncic tonight, especially with his teammate Bojan Bogdanovic not in the lineup. As I previously mentioned, this game features an extremely low total, but the risk is mitigated with O’Neale’s cheap salary. Prioritize O’Neale for cash games if you need the savings, but keep the big picture in mind; roster him to pay for studs.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at New Orleans Pelicans – $11,200 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
LeBron James has catapulted himself to 30 points per game, which is the most in the league this season. The race is close, but James is playing at an elite level as he tries to keep the Lakers afloat without Anthony Davis. James has been listed as questionable with a knee injury for over a month, so it is always good to keep an eye on the news to make sure he is in the lineup.
The crazy thing about James’ scoring is this is tied for his second-highest points per game in his 19-year career. The Lakers are three-point road underdogs, and this game has the second-highest total on the slate at 230.5 points. If the salary and blowout concern you with Durant, pay up a little more for James, who is doing literally everything for the Lakers in a great matchup.
Top Value: Jaxson Hayes vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $5,000 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Flipping to the Pelicans side of the ball, Jaxson Hayes has a great matchup against the Lakers without Davis in the lineup. The Lakers allow the third-most points in the paint this season with 51.2 per game. They allowed 60 points in the paint in their most recent game against the 76ers. Hayes should have no trouble getting easy putbacks and dunks in this juicy matchup at home.
The minutes for Hayes have been so good lately. He is averaging 32 minutes per game in his last eight games, as Brandon Ingram remains out of the lineup. Hayes is a threat to double-double in this matchup, as the Lakers get torched in the paint and are also a poor rebounding team. They allow 47 rebounds per game, which ranks as tied for the fourth-worst in the league. Hayes has value.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid at Phoenix Suns – $11,400 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
This slate is absolutely loaded with high-usage players. Joel Embiid is second to Doncic in usage rate per game this seaso, and he is averaging a career-high 29.8 points per game, which is also second to James. Embiid has taken a brief step back with Harden on the 76ers, but he still has an incredible ceiling every time he plays. Embiid leads the league in free-throw attempts with 11.8 per game.
The Suns rank in the top 10 of least amount of points allowed in the paint this season. Deandre Ayton has been a fantastic defender, however Embiid has absolutely torched Ayton in his career. They have played against each other five times, and Embiid is averaging 36.4 points and 14.4 rebounds per game while shooting 53.8 percent from the field. Sneaky stat that provides a huge ceiling.
Top Value: Robert Williams vs. Minnesota Timberwolves– $6,000 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
Leading the slate in highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and the best value center option on FanDuel tonight is Robert Williams. Despite only being center-eligible on DraftKings, Williams has an 84% Bargain Rating, which is rare to find at this salary. The Timberwolves have been solid defensively, but they still play at the fastest pace in the league, which helps Williams’ rim runs.
The main attraction to this play is that the Celtics will be without Al Horford tonight. In nine games without Horford this season, Williams is averaging a double-double with 12.1 points and 11.1 rebounds per game. He is also playing 34.2 minutes per game during that time, which is very high for Williams. If he can stay out of foul trouble against Karl-Anthony Towns, expect a big day from Williams.
