The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS on Sunday, March 20, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Dejounte Murray at Golden State Warriors – $10,600 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
Despite the Spurs losing eight of their last 11 games, they are only six-point home underdogs against the Warriors tonight. A big reason why is the absence of Stephen Curry, who is out for a couple of weeks. They did get Draymond Green back but the Spurs should be able to keep this close, leading to a big night from Dejounte Murray, who comes in as the top ceiling point guard.
Murray has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his last nine games on FanDuel. The one he failed was his last game, when the Spurs got torched by the Pelicans, 124-91. Keep this game close and Murray should thrive. The Warriors rank third in defensive rating, allowing 105.1 points per game. Murray’s price has slid down on both sites, making him a great pay-up option tonight.
Top Value: Monte Morris vs. Boston Celtics – $4,700 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Do not let last game against the Cavaliers sway you from rostering Monte Morris. In his previous eight games, Morris averaged 24.7 DraftKings points per game while shooting a ridiculous 56.5% from the field. During that time, Morris scored 20 or more DraftKings points in every single game. He has proven he can score, but he also does a great job rebounding and providing assists.
The Celtics lead the league in defensive rating, allowing a league-best 103.6 points per game. The Nuggets are three-point home underdogs implied to score 110 points tonight. Getting to Morris in non-Nikola Jokic lineups tonight is one of the best options, even though playing them together is always an option as well. Morris provides value, even if this is a difficult spot against the Celtics.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. Toronto Raptors – $10,100 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
James Harden was finally able to perform last game, as it was the first time he had a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in eight games. He finished last game with 24 points, 12 assists, and seven rebounds. That was Harden’s third-straight game where he recorded 20-plus points and 11-plus assists. Joel Embiid is questionable tonight, which may force Harden to do all of the heavy lifting.
The sample size is only 111 minutes, but using our On/Off Tool, Harden has a +10.9% usage rate and a +13.7 DraftKings Plus/Minus increase without Embiid on the floor. Even if Embiid does play tonight, Harden’s salary has come down enough where he is still more than viable. The 76ers are 5.5-point home favorites, as both teams rank in the bottom five of pace. Expect a lot of Harden isolation.
Top Value: Trent Forrest at New York Knicks– $3,000 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
The first of two minimum-priced options on DraftKings and FanDuel in this article is Jazz guard Trent Forrest. He leads the way on DraftKings with the highest projected Plus/Minus, as the Jazz will be without Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic. Forrest is listed as questionable right now, so make sure to monitor his status before lock. If he is able to play, he will likely draw the start.
Forrest has been out for four-straight games with a wrist injury. His status is very important on this slate, because we have him projected to play 29 minutes tonight. Forrest is a cheap way to get exposure to the Jazz without two of their top guards. The Knicks play at the fourth-slowest pace in the league, so naturally this game has the lowest total on the slate. Forrest still provides value if he plays.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Denver Nuggets – $10,000 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
Jayson Tatum seems to be peaking at the right time for the Celtics who have won a ridiculous 18 of their last 21 games. Tatum has increased his scoring average every year and is averaging a career-high 26.8 points per game this season. Tatum has excelled in the month of March, scoring 34.8 points while shooting 51.6% from the field and averaging 53.8 DraftKings points per game.
The Celtics are three-point road favorites despite the Nuggets having a 20-13 home record this season. Both teams rank 20th and lower in pace, which should provide a relatively low-scoring game. With how well Tatum is playing right now, it doesn’t matter what game flow the Celtics are playing at. Tatum is still priced a little bit lower than he should be, especially on FanDuel.
Top Value: Tobias Harris vs. Toronto Raptors – $6,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Tobias Harris is priced in the mid-range, but he’s popping in our Tournament Model as one of the best value plays for both sites tonight. Harris leads the slate on FanDuel with the highest projected Plus/Minus, while he ranks third on DraftKings. He would also greatly benefit if Embiid were to sit tonight. Harris has a +6.7% usage rate and +4.7 DraftKings Plus/Minus increase without Embiid.
There is no denying that Harris has taken a step back with the addition of Harden. Since Harden came to the 76ers, Harris has one game where he scored over 34 DraftKings points. His usage rate and field-goal attempts have plummeted, but he does have upside at this salary on both sites. Prioritize Harris on FanDuel, where he has a 94% Bargain Rating and is the best value on the slate.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam at Philadelphia 76ers – $9,100 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Having Fred VanVleet back in the lineup has actually helped Pascal Siakam get back to his ceiling games. Siakam has finished with over 52 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. During that stretch, he has averaged 26.6 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 6.4 assists while shooting 51.5% from the field and 52.6% from behind the arc. He of course is playing heavy minutes.
The pair of Siakam and VanVleet leads the league in minutes played per game this season. The Raptors are also playing without OG Anunoby. Using our On/Off Tool, Siakam has a team-high +1.6% usage rate increase with Anunoby off the floor this season. Both teams play so slow that it is tough to get too carried away with this game. However, there is upside with Siakam, who has been playing well.
Top Value: Trey Lyles vs. Phoenix Suns – $5,100 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Behind Harris, Trey Lyles is the second-best value in our model on FanDuel tonight. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in five-straight games and has an 89% Bargain Rating. During that five-game stretch, Lyles is averaging 13.4 points and 8.6 rebounds per game while shooting 54.5% from the field. His minutes have also ramped up to 29.6 per game with Richaun Holmes still out.
This game between the Kings and Suns features the highest total on the slate at 231.5 points. The Kings are double-digit underdogs, which is no surprise as the Suns have the best record in the league and rank in the top three of both offensive and defensive rating this season. The matchup is brutal, but the pace of this game will be very high and Lyles is too cheap for his upside.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Boston Celtics – $12,000 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
The highest-priced player with the largest ceiling on this seven-game slate is Nikola Jokic. Surprise surprise. Especially if Embiid and Trae Young both miss their games, Jokic is going to look even better from a raw points perspective. Jokic has recorded a double-double in 24 consecutive games. During that time, he is averaging 25.1 points, 13.1 rebounds, and 8.6 assists per game.
Jokic also leads the league in triple-doubles with 18 with Murray being the next closest at 12. He is the only player with games over 90 DraftKings points this season and he has two of them. He can reach a level that no one else can. The Celtics have a difficult defense, but they do not have the size to match up with Jokic. He is tough to ignore with so much value on this slate.
Top Value: Jericho Sims vs. Utah Jazz – $3,000 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
The second minimum-priced player on both DraftKings and FanDuel who provides value is Jericho Sims. He is second behind Forrest for the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and is another salary saver for stars-and-scrubs lineup builds. Over the last three games Sims has averaged over 20 minutes while scoring a little over 15 DraftKings points per game.
The Jazz have a few players out tonight as I previously mentioned, so the Knicks should be able to keep this game relatively close at home. The rookie from Texas has provided a much needed spark off the bench for the Knicks. Being center-only eligible on FanDuel makes it tough to roster Sims, but he has dual eligibility on DraftKings. He may be the only minimum-priced option if Forrest isn’t able to play.
