The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tools and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Golden State Warriors – $11,700 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel
Luka Doncic had a disappointing first game back after the All-Star Break, where he only shot 8-for-24 from the field and had 51.3 DraftKings points. However, deciding between Doncic and Stephen Curry feels like a no-brainer at this point. Doncic continues to lead the entire league in usage rate at 37.0%. Before the All-Star Break, Doncic was on an insane run. During a 10-game stretch, Doncic averaged nearly a triple-double: 35.4 points, 10.3 rebounds, 9.8 assists and 68.7 DraftKings points per game.
Playing against the Warriors presents some difficulties even without their star defender Draymond Green. The Warriors still lead the league in defensive rating, allowing only 103.6 points per game. The Mavericks are implied for a slate-low 107.75 points. Deciding between Doncic and Nikola Jokic at the top is tough. Doncic has been playing better lately, but Jokic has the much better matchup.
Top Value: Devonte’ Graham at Los Angeles Lakers – $4,200 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
The salary on Devonte’ Graham continues to slide, but it is warranted now that he is coming off of the bench. Despite not starting, Graham is still playing 25-plus minutes; our Tournament Model has him projected for 26 minutes tonight. Graham is a cheap way to get exposure to the Pelicans, who are in a solid spot against the Lakers. They are only one-point road underdogs.
The Lakers play at the fifth-fastest pace in the league, allowing 112.3 points per game. They are sliding quickly in the Western Conference standings as well. Their defensive rating drops from 107.8 to 110.6 playing without Anthony Davis this season. Graham isn’t the player that he was earlier in the season, but he still has upside with his falling price tag and his ability to get hot from long distance.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: CJ McCollum at Los Angeles Lakers – $8,900 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
The reason Graham is coming off of the bench is due to the trade-deadline acquisition of CJ McCollum, who has been fantastic with the Pelicans. Over the last five games, McCollum is averaging 31.8 points per game while shooting 57.5% from the field and 47.2% from behind the arc. He has also averaged 50.5 DraftKings points with a usage rate of 30.7%.
McCollum has had a positive Plus/Minus in all five of those games while attempting 21.2 field goals per game. The Pelicans have still only won two of their last 11 games, but adding McCollum is obviously a big boost to their offense. The Lakers allow their opponents to shoot 90.4 field goals per game, which ranks fourth-highest in the league. Look for McCollum to stay aggressive once again tonight.
Top Value: Austin Reaves vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $3,300 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel
This game between the Lakers and Pelicans is obviously drawing plenty of attention in our model, as Austin Reaves comes in as the best value guard option on DraftKings. The minutes have been ramping up lately for Reaves, as he drew the first start of his career last game. Monitor the news to see if he is starting tonight, but if that is the case he is far too cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Reaves played 33 minutes last game, but his stats were very disappointing. He only finished with six points on 2-for-4 shooting from the field and 15.3 DraftKings points. Reaves has shown he can get hot from distance, and 55.8% of his field-goal attempts come from behind the arc. The Pelicans allow the fourth-highest 3-point percentage in the league at 36.3%. Similar to Graham, Reaves is a cheap way to get exposure to not only the Lakers, but to this game. He also is great in a stars-and-scrubs lineup build.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $10,900 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Probably the biggest news on the slate is the status of LeBron James. We are going down this road again where he is questionable to play every game, and then more often than not he plays. The Lakers desperately need him to play, as they have lost eight of their last 11 games. James leads the Lakers in points, rebounds, steals, and assists this season, and he is playing 36.8 minutes per game.
Using our On/Off Tool, James’ DraftKings Plus/Minus increases the most on the team without Davis in the lineup. In 21 games without Davis this season, James is averaging 32.1 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 58.7 DraftKings points per game. His upside is extremely high without Davis, and James should feast in this matchup against the Pelicans if he is in the lineup. He is a way to get different at the top.
Top Value: Eric Gordon vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
It was surprising to see Eric Gordon still remain on the Rockets past the trade deadline. It may be more surprising that he continues to stay in the starting lineup and play relatively high minutes. Gordon played 30 minutes in his last game and had 20 DraftKings points. He is a very boom-or-bust fantasy producer who relies on his perimeter jump shot, but he is the best value at small forward tonight.
This game between the Rockets and Clippers features the highest total on the slate at 229 points. The Rockets have lost 12 of their last 13 games, as they continue to be the caboose of the Western Conference. They are 7.5-point home underdogs against the Clippers, who rank seventh in defensive rating. Gordon still makes for a great value play if he continues to start and play these minutes.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Miles Bridges vs. Detroit Pistons – $7,900 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
No team needed the All-Star Break more than the Hornets. They had lost nine of their last 10 games before the break but came out victorious in their first game back. They look to make it two in a row against the pitiful Pistons, who rank 25th in defensive rating this season. The Hornets have the highest implied total on the slate at 119.25 points. Getting exposure here is critical for tonight.
Miles Bridges jumps off the page, as he has recorded three straight double-doubles. Over that stretch, Bridges is averaging 22.7 points and 11.3 rebounds per game. He has also averaged 46.7 DraftKings points while increasing his usage rate to 24.6%. The Hornets continue to rank second in pace this season, as Bridges ranks in the top 10 in points scored in the paint. Even with the addition of Montrezl Harrell, Bridges has shown upside and remains at a relatively cheap price point.
Top Value: Marvin Bagley at Charlotte Hornets – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Marvin Bagley left last game due to an ankle injury and is questionable to play tonight. He pops as the best power forward value on DraftKings and third-best on FanDuel. Since joining the Pistons over the last four games, Bagley has averaged 11.5 points and 5.5 rebounds while shooting 51.3% from the field. During that time, Bagley has averaged 20.3 DraftKings points while playing 22.3 minutes per game.
If Bagley is unable to play, fire up Kelly Olynyk, who is priced very similar to Bagley and has the same great matchup. Playing against the Hornets is always a high-upside situation. I mentioned they rank second in pace, but they also allow 114.4 points per game, which ranks third-highest in the league. Bagley and Olynyk should be able to pay off their price tags with ease in this matchup.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Portland Trail Blazers – $12,600 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel
Despite recording his league-lead 16th triple-double last night, Nikola Jokic only finished with 50.5 DraftKings points. However, Jokic easily stands out as the best center on this slate. He has the highest ceiling of any player tonight on both sites. However, on FanDuel, Jokic has a 96% Bargain Rating. Prioritize him on FanDuel, but there is enough value to get to him on DraftKings as well.
Jokic was unable to take advantage of the Kings’ weak interior defense, but he gets another great matchup tonight against the Trail Blazers. They rank 28th in defensive rating, allowing 112.4 points per game. The Trail Blazers also allow the second-most assists per game, and after losing Jusuf Nurkic, they have zero interior defensive presence to stop Jokic. Another triple-double is firmly on the table.
Top Value: Dwight Howard vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $3,000 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
Priced at the stone minimum, Dwight Howard is coming off a game where he started and had a massive double-double with 14 points and 16 rebounds. Howard finished with 44.5 DraftKings points and remains incredibly cheap again tonight. Don’t get it twisted, there is still risk with Howard. First off, make sure he is starting again. The Lakers are wild with their rotations, especially at center.
It is pretty obvious by now that this game has a lot of potential. Stacking it up is a great option, as there are so many different ways that lineups can be made. The Pelicans have been very solid at limiting points in the paint this season, as they rank sixth in that category allowing only 44.5 per game. However, at this salary with the upside he can provide, Howard is a fantastic option to round out your lineups.
