The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position and looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. San Antonio Spurs – $12,200 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
Luka Doncic had his 16th technical foul of the season rescinded, so he will be able to play in the last regular season game tonight. The Mavericks need to win and have the Warriors lose to get the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference playoffs. A loss or Warriors win, and they will stay at No. 4. That is important to know given the price and upside of Doncic on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Over the last six games, Doncic has averaged 33.7 points, 11.2 assists, and 9.2 rebounds per game with three games of over 70 DraftKings points. Doncic continues to lead the league in usage rate at 37.3 percent. During that six-game stretch, he averaged a 45.5 percent usage rate. The Spurs rank third in pace this season, which is perfect for Doncic. He is a tough fade in this spot.
Top Value: Ayo Dosunmu at Minnesota Timberwolves – $3,900 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
The Chicago Bulls are already locked into their playoff seed, so they are resting DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Alex Caruso, and Coby White. Hello Ayo Dosunmu! His salary is way too cheap for the minutes and upside that he provides. Dosunmu has shown double-double upside in the past, which is definitely on the table being the main facilitator tonight.
The Bulls are playing on the road against the Timberwolves who will likely sit their fair share of players as well, as they have nothing to play for. This game total is set at 229.5 points, which is the third-highest on the slate. The Timberwolves play at the fastest pace in the league and allow 113.2 points per game. Dosunmu will be one of the most-popular players on the slate for both sites.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. Detroit Pistons – $10,100 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
The Philadelphia 76ers are another team who is sitting in the No. 4 seed, but they could get the No. 3 seed with a victory and a Celtics loss against the Grizzlies. James Harden is coming off his fifth-straight double-double, and he is averaging 15.8 points and 13.2 assists per game. He only has one game over 50 DraftKings points due to shooting only 36.1 percent from the field and 27.3 percent from behind the arc. The salary for Harden is absurd on FanDuel. He has a 97% Bargain Rating and the highest projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard.
The 76ers are massive 15.5-point home favorites tonight, implied for 120 points. They should have zero trouble with the Pistons, who have lost their last two games by a combined 58 points as they try and lock up the third-worst record in the league. Harden has triple-double upside and then some if he shoots well from the field. There is a reason why he continues to be the highest-ceiling shooting guard in our Tournament Model, but make sure he’s playing, as he was added to the injury report Sunday afternoon.
Top Value: Dillon Brooks vs. Boston Celtics – $6,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
The Memphis Grizzlies have locked up the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference and have nothing to play for besides to play spoiler on the Celtics. Despite only playing 32 games this season, Dillon Brooks is second on the Grizzlies in points, averaging 18.4 per game. He is an extremely high-usage guard who isn’t afraid to take any shot. That is what we want in our DFS lineups.
The value at shooting guard is very weak compared to the rest of the slate with other positions, but Brooks does remain relatively cheap in this spot. His status as well as the rest of the Grizzlies is up in the air at the moment, but don’t be shocked if they send Brooks out with a bunch of role players. He is projected to play 29 minutes and be a very solid value play, especially on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Memphis Grizzlies – $10,300 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
The Boston Celtics are another team that is needing a win to make sure the 76ers don’t pass them in the standings. However, a matchup against the Heat in the second round compared to the Bucks or potentially the Nets has to be intriguing! Wild day today, who knows what will happen. Jayson Tatum has been filling up the stat sheet lately and needs to be considered.
This matchup against the Grizzlies is a tough one on paper, as they rank fifth in defensive rating. Ja Morant returned to the lineup last night and played 27 minutes. Morant’s status for tonight is up in the air, but when Tatum gets going, he is nearly impossible to stop. He has been extremely consistent lately, averaging 30.3 points per game since the All-Star Break, which ranks eighth in the league.
Top Value: Caleb Martin vs. Utah Jazz – $3,200 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
Priced very close to the minimum on DraftKings and at the minimum on FanDuel is Heat forward Caleb Martin. The Heat have locked up the top seed in the Eastern Conference and will more than likely rest a majority of its starters in this road matchup against the Magic, where Miami is a 9.5-point favorite\. Martin has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings for small forwards.
Martin has played three games since injuring his calf and has played 26 minutes in each game. He is projected for 27 minutes right now, but that could increase with more Heat players getting ruled out later in the day. Martin has had a few big games this season when the Heat have rested players. Add Martin to the value list as someone who is perfect for a stars-and-scrubs lineup build.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam at New York Knicks – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
The Toronto Raptors are locked into their playoff seed, so it will be interesting to see if they sit any players or ride the momentum. They have won 14 of their last 17 games, and they are going for the season sweep over the Knicks tonight. Pascal Siakam has been incredible lately. Over the last three games, Siakam is averaging 32.3 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 67.1 DraftKings points per game.
The Raptors are expected to get Fred VanVleet back, and OG Anunoby is considered questionable. What is really tough to know is the playing time Siakam will receive tonight. He has played 40 or more minutes in six of his last seven games, but with the Raptors having nothing to play for, it is tough to know the plans of Nick Nurse right now. Monitor the news, but Siakam has been so good.
Top Value: Jaylen Hoard at Los Angeles Clippers – $7,000 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
Jaylen Hoard has made a name for himself over the past week, as his salary has climbed from minimum price to the high mid-range. We have Hoard projected for 39 minutes, which may be on the low side as he has played 46 or more minutes in two of his last three games. The Thunder are only implied for 103.25 points, but Hoard has a positive Plus/Minus in every game he has started.
It doesn’t make sense to say Hoard’s price should come up more than what it already is, but the numbers don’t lie. He has started in four of the last five games. During those four games, Hoard is averaging 21.3 points and 15.8 rebounds per game while shooting 56.1 percent from the field. In three of those games, Hoard recorded 17 or more rebounds. He has also scored 23 or more points in three-straight games.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $12,400 DraftKings, $12,200 FanDuel
The best play on the slate is Nikola Jokic if he plays. He is the first player in NBA history to record a season with 2,000 points, 1,000 rebounds, and 500 assists. After his historic accomplishment, Jokic is questionable tonight. No one is as consistent or has as high of a ceiling as Jokic. He has recorded seven-straight games with 70 or more DraftKings points.
With a Nuggets victory and a Jazz loss, the Nuggets could get to the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference. However, the Jazz are 19-point favorites, which makes it hard to know whether Jokic plays or not. The Lakers have allowed 51.5 points per game in the paint this season, which is the third-most in the league. Jokic has averaged 27.5 points, 15 rebounds, and 9.5 assists per game against them.
Top Value: Naz Reid vs. Chicago Bulls – $3,300 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
Last but certainly not least is Naz Reid, who has the highest projected Plus/Minus for any player on the slate. Karl-Anthony Towns is out tonight, which will move Reid into the Timberwolves’ starting lineup. Using our On/Off Tool, Reid has played the most minutes without Towns on the floor this season. In six games without Towns, Reid is averaging 13.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 27.3 DraftKings points per game.
Both the Timberwolves and Bulls have nothing to play for, which is why so many starters are not in the lineup. This is a glorified G-League game, and Reid should dominate. We have Reid projected to play 30 minutes, as he has the upside to post a monster double-double in this spot. He is arguably the best salary saver on this slate, as he is even priced at the stone minimum on FanDuel.
