The Western Conference Finals continue this Saturday as the series shifts from Oklahoma City to Minneapolis after the Thunder held home-court advantage by winning Game 1 and Game 2. Game 3 is Saturday night at 8:30 p.m. ET and should continue a fascinating series. It also provides another opportunity for everyone to enter DFS fantasy basketball Showdown contests on DraftKings.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
So far, the series has belonged to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections again on Saturday night for Game 3. He also has the highest salary, which gives him only the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
The recently awarded Most Valuable Player posted 55.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 59.75 DraftKings points in Game 2 with over 30 points in each contest. In Game 2, SGA had 38 points, eight assists, three rebounds, and three steals in 42 minutes. He has come up just short of a double-double in both contests while adding three steals in each game.
Dating back to the last round, SGA has over 30 points in four straight games and is averaging 51.5 DraftKings points per game in the postseason at the rate of 1.39 DraftKings points per minute. He’s definitely an extremely productive option, but the question on Saturday is if he’ll be worth his hefty salary.
On the other side of the matchup, Anthony Edwards has a salary that is $800 lower in a flex spot and $1,200 lower in the Captain spot. We’ve been excited this season about our partnership with ShotQuality, and in the ShotQuality projections, Edwards actually has a higher ceiling, median, and floor projection than Gilgeous-Alexander. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in both sets of projections.
In the playoffs, Edwards is averaging 50.3 DraftKings points per game at a rate of 1.25 DraftKings points per minute. He has been even better than that average in his last playoff games at home, where he averaged 56.5 DraftKings points per game. In his last home game, he had 22 points and 12 assists for 57.25 DraftKings points, which eliminated the Warriors.
Edwards had a quieter Game 1 in the blowout loss with just 18 points but bounced back with 32 points and 54.75 DraftKings points in Game 2. Coming home should make him an even better play on Saturday night, and there’s a strong case that he’s the better fantasy play of the two superstar guards since he comes at a lower salary.
Julius Randle has stepped up at home as well, although he got off to a rough start to this series against the strong interior defense of the Thunder. In the playoffs, he’s averaging 39.3 DraftKings points per game, but he went just 2-for-11 from the field in Game 2 and managed just six points, five boards, five assists, and 19.75 DraftKings points.
He’ll need to bounce back in Game 3 if the Timberwolves are to get their first win of the series and look to extend it deep into next week. Both sets of projections indicate he’s a little overpriced since he’s in a tough matchup, and his salary is still up after great showings against the Lakers and Warriors.
Jalen Williams has a higher ceiling, floor, and median projection than Randle in both sets of projections and a significantly higher Projected Plus/Minus. He had a strong showing with 47 DraftKings points in Game 1, but he really took it to the next level with 26 points, 10 boards, five assists, and 50.5 DraftKings points in his first double-double of the postseason in Game 2.
He had a rough game in Game 6 against the Nuggets with just six points on 3-of-16 shooting, but since then, Williams has posted over 42 DraftKings points in three straight games to raise his average for the playoffs to 40.2 DraftKings points per contest.
Williams is worth a look as a Captain if he can have another game like Game 2, and he comes as the cheapest of the four studs on the board this Saturday for Game 3. If you have him as Captain with SGA or Edwards next to him, there is still enough salary to build a strong list of UTIL options. He also fits next to either superstar if they are in the Captain spot. It’s easier to include Williams in a UTIL spot if one of the two superstars is your Captain, as having both Edwards and SGA with one at Captain is almost impossible without punting a roster spot.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Up front for the Thunder, Chet Holmgren has been very solid throughout the playoffs, averaging 35.8 DraftKings points per game. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in both the FantasyLabs and ShotQuality projections after the four studs discussed above.
In Game 2, Holmgren had 22 points and 29 DraftKings points in 32 minutes, but his fantasy production was even stronger in Game 1, when he had just 15 points but 34.25 DraftKings points in only 26 minutes. When the Thunder are at their best, Holmgren is very involved and productive, making him the top mid-range target on the board if you can make his salary work.
Isaiah Hartenstein has had lower numbers in the first two games in this matchup, managing 18.75 and 20.5 DraftKings points. He is doing a great job defensively and contributing in many meaningful ways, but they don’t always translate to the box score enough to make him worth his salary compared to the other options around this price point.
Luguentz Dort has been playing big minutes in this matchup, logging 28 minutes in Game 1 and 35 minutes in Game 2. He had a playoff-high 30 DraftKings points in Game 2 on nine points, eight rebounds, four assists, and two steals. He had been held under 20 DraftKings points in his previous seven playoff games, so he definitely isn’t a sure thing to get over that number in Game 3. However, his increased playing time makes him a great value in a UTIL spot from under $4,000.
Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace continue their involved roles as well. Caruso has nine points in each of the first two wins in the series, while Wallace reached 22.75 DraftKings points in Game 2, the highest mark for either of the two guards in this series so far. Wallace is getting slightly more minutes and is my preferred play of the two, although both get plenty of minutes to have upside despite their typically low usage.
On the other side of the matchup, Jaden McDaniels is a key for the Timberwolves to get going. He had 22 points and 32 DraftKings points in Game 2 after a disappointing Game 1, but it wasn’t quite enough to compensate for Randle’s struggles.
McDaniels has produced over 30 DraftKings points in four of his last six playoff games and has the sixth-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in both sets of projections, behind just the four studs and Holmgren. He has shown a very high ceiling this postseason, averaging 29.1 DraftKings points per game.
Rudy Gobert comes in just behind McDaniels in the ShotQuality projections, which give him the nod over Naz Reid even though Reid comes with a higher salary. Gobert was held under 20 DraftKings points in each of the first two games of the series, but he would likely get more minutes if the game stays competitive throughout. He usually steps up at home a little more as well.
In the backcourt, Mike Conley has been starting, but Donte DiVincenzo has been the more productive fantasy play most of the postseason. DiVincenzo also has a higher ceiling since he can be streaky and get hot from long range.
Conley had more success against the Warriors, especially at the end of the series, but he has struggled in the first two games against OKC. Despite his low individual output, he is the only Timberwolves player with a positive +/- in both games this series, so he could get more run on Saturday if the game stays close. Conley is only averaging 18.3 DraftKings points per game in the playoffs, while DiVincenzo is averaging 20.25 DraftKings points per game in the exact same minutes average.
Of the mid-range options from both teams, Holmgren and McDaniels stand out as the two strongest plays by a wide margin. Dort is a great value and could be used as a contrarian Captain if you want to get really wild. Wallace and Conley are my preferred plays in that price range, but DiVincenzo brings a little higher boom-or-bust ceiling.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with our Sleeper Fantasy promo code.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($2,200): Alexander-Walker has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players in this matchup in the FantasyLabs projections and the fourth highest in the ShotQuality projections. He’s radically underpriced compared to his ceiling. He had 23 DraftKings points in Game 2 and has 15+ DraftKings points in four of his last six games in the playoffs dating back to his big 20-point game against the Warriors that earned him 30.5 DraftKings points. He’s the best pick from under $3,500 by a wide margin. No other player in this price range has been involved for Minnesota lately, as they’ve limited their rotations in the playoffs.
- Aaron Wiggins ($1,400): Wiggins’ minutes have been limited in the postseason and especially in this series. He has stepped up when given a larger role in blowouts, but his playing time is hard to trust even at this salary.
- Isaiah Joe ($1,000): Joe came off the bench with seven points, eight rebounds, and 19 DraftKings points in Game 1 but only played three scoreless minutes in Game 2. As the Thunder tighten their rotation, he has been left as a high-risk flier but still brings some potential upside.
- Jaylin Williams ($1,000): Williams got minutes against the Nuggets in an effort to slow down Nikola Jokic, with Hartenstein sometimes dealing with foul trouble. He didn’t play in the first two games of this series, though, so he doesn’t seem like a good fit in this matchup.
- Kenrich Williams ($1,000): Instead of Jaylin Williams, Kenrich Williams has been the option off the bench for the Thunder in this series. He had a quick eight points and 12.25 DraftKings points in Game 1 but only played two minutes in Game 2. Wiggins and Joe are better punt plays off the OKC bench even though Kenrich is the Williams is getting minutes.
