NBA

NBA DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown for Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 5

We’ll have our first opportunity to see a team punch their ticket to the NBA Finals on Wednesday. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the best team in basketball this season, and they currently lead the Minnesota Timberwolves three games to one in the Western Conference Finals. They managed to bounce back from an embarrassing Game 3 loss with a win in Game 4, and they’re listed as 8.5-point home favorites in Game 5. The game will take place at 8:30 p.m. ET, and the total sits at 220.5.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

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Real-time DFS models & projections

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NBA DFS Stud Picks

The Thunder have a lot of things working for them, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is undoubtedly one of the best. He took home the MVP award for his work during the regular season, and he’s been just as unstoppable in the playoffs.

He’s coming off a monster performance in the team’s Game 4 win. He racked up 40 points, 10 assists, and nine rebounds, resulting in 68.25 DraftKings points. That was his top mark of the playoffs, but it doesn’t stand out as a massive outlier. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but two games during the postseason, and those were two massive blowouts where he played reduced minutes.

Ultimately, there’s no reason to expect much different from SGA on Wednesday. It doesn’t matter what opposing defenses do; he’s going to get his. He’s scored at least 54.25 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, and he leads the slate in median projection, ceiling projection, and projected Plus/Minus. He’s expected to carry the most ownership on the slate, but he’s an extremely tough fade.

Anthony Edwards is the other stud to consider in this matchup. Unlike SGA, Edwards is coming off arguably his worst performance of the postseason in Game 4. The Thunder somehow limited him to just two field goal attempts in the first half of what was essentially a must-win game, which is almost unfathomable. He was more aggressive in the second, shooting 4-11 from the field, but it wasn’t enough to salvage his overall numbers. Edwards finished with just 16 points, four rebounds, six assists, and five turnovers, resulting in 28.0 DraftKings points.

The Thunder are arguably the toughest matchup in all of basketball. They were the No. 1 defense in the league during the regular season, and they’ve been even more imposing during the playoffs.

That said, it’s hard to imagine Edwards not being more aggressive in a potential elimination game. He had 54.75 DraftKings points in Games 2 and 3, so he’s certainly capable of succeeding in this matchup. He doesn’t grade out quite as well as SGA from a ceiling or value standpoint, but he has some bounce-back appeal in this spot. If the Timberwolves do manage to extend this series another game, expect it to be on the back of a big game from Edwards.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Midrange Picks

Jalen Williams has been the Thunder’s No. 2 offensive option all season, but he had some shaky moments vs. the Nuggets in the previous round. However, he put together a big Game 7 against Denver, which has springboarded him into a much better series vs. the Timberwolves. He’s had at least 47.0 DraftKings points in each of the team’s three wins, including 53.25 DraftKings points in Game 4.

Williams has shot the ball significantly better against Minnesota. He’s averaging 23.0 points per game while knocking down 49.3% of his shots from the field and 50.0% from 3-point range. He’s also leading the team with 25 rebounds and nine steals in this series, so he’s capable of stuffing the stat sheet in a variety of areas.

Williams is up to $9,800 for Game 5, but that still feels like too cheap a price tag. He trails only Gilgeous-Alexander in projected Plus/Minus, and his salary comes with a 98% Bargain Rating.

Julius Randle has been the Timberwolves’ No. 2 option this postseason, and he was instrumental in their wins over the Lakers and Warriors. He completely erased the previous narrative about him struggling to produce in the postseason and any potential concerns about his fit in Minnesota.

Unfortunately, those concerns have come right back to the forefront in this series. Randle has been largely ineffective against the Thunder’s swarming defense, which has massively impacted his playing time of late. He routinely logged more than 40 minutes per game vs. the Warriors, but he’s failed to crack 30 minutes in each of his past two games. He’s had less than 20 DraftKings points in two of his past three.

That makes it extremely tough to trust Randle at his current price tag. We currently have Randle projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and that could end up being a bit generous. Even so, he still grades out as one of the worst values of the day.

Chet Holmgren hasn’t displayed a ton of upside of late, but he’s been pretty consistent. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past six games, including 39.75 DraftKings points in his last outing. One of the lone exceptions was the Game 3 blowout loss, and he played just 20.8 minutes in that contest.

Holmgren doesn’t see the volume of minutes you’d typically expect for a player in this price range, but he’s typically very effective when on the floor. He’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute during the postseason, which is the second-best mark on the Thunder.

Jaden McDaniels has been one of the more effective role players for the Timberwolves in this series. He’s coming off his best performance in Game 4, finishing with 40.5 DraftKings points in 31.2 minutes, and he had another 32.0 DraftKings points in Game 2. 

McDaniels is only projected for 34 minutes in Game 5, but that should still give him a solid chance to return value.

Randle isn’t the only big man struggling for the Timberwolves. The same can be said for Naz Reid and Rudy Gobert, who also can’t seem to stay on the floor. 

Reid managed to return value in Games 2 and 3, but he scored just 25.0 and 26.0 DraftKings points in those contests. In other words, he didn’t exactly light it up. He’s up to $7,000 on DraftKings and is projected for just 24 minutes, and it’s hard to get excited about him at those figures.

Gobert is projected for a bit more playing time (29 minutes), and he’s also a bit cheaper at $6,400. He’s also projected for 29 minutes in our NBA Models and had just under 30 DraftKings points in Game 4, so he appears to be the superior option.

His playing time has also trended in the right direction after logging just 21.3 minutes in Game 1. He’s played at least 28.2 minutes in three straight, including 32.3 minutes in his last outing. He’s still far from a must-play, but he at least appears to be a viable option.

In addition to having the league MVP, the Thunder also have one of the deepest rosters in basketball. That gives them massive flexibility. Isaiah Hartenstein played a big role in their series vs. the Nuggets, but he hasn’t carried nearly the same workload vs. the Timberwolves. He’s played less than 20 minutes in three of the four outings, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in all four games. His price tag has come down to $6,800, but that’s still way too expensive for the role he’s played.

Donte DiVincenzo has been quiet in his first year with the Timberwolves, but he broke out with 35.75 DraftKings points in Game 4. He scored 21 points and knocked down five of eight 3-pointers, so he could play a bigger role in Game 5. He’s currently projected for just 25 minutes in our NBA Models, but that could end up being a conservative estimate.

 

NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks

  • Alex Caruso ($4,800): Caruso hasn’t had a huge statistical impact during the playoffs, but he’s been instrumental with his work on defense. He’s coming off 33.5 minutes in Game 4, and he’s projected for another 28 minutes on Wednesday. That makes him a viable target at $4,800. Caruso has historically averaged more than 20 DraftKings points with a comparable minute projection as a member of the Thunder (per the Trends tool), and you’ll take that type of production at $4,800.
  • Lu Dort ($4,600): Dort is another massive part of the Thunder’s defense who hasn’t contributed a ton offensively. He’s gone for more than 14.5 DraftKings points in just one of four games vs. the Timberwolves, but he went for 30.0 in that outlier. That at least gives him a really solid ceiling for his price tag.
  • Cason Wallace ($4,200): Wallace has been more reliable than Dort in this series. He’s scored at least 18.25 DraftKings points in each of the team’s three wins, and he’s had at least 21.75 DraftKings points in two of them. His 28 projected minutes are nearly identical to Dort’s, and he’s been the more productive player on a per-minute basis during the playoffs.
  • Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($3,400): With the Timberwolves’ big men struggling in this series, the team has had to look for alternative answers. Alexander-Walker has been one of them. He’s played at least 25.4 minutes in three of the first four games, including 29.3 minutes in Game 4. He responded with a massive 43.0 DraftKings points, and while that’s definitely an outlier, he stands out as one of the best values of the day. He trails only SGA and Williams in terms of projected Plus/Minus.
  • Mike Conley ($2,800): Conley is another solid target in this price range. He’s not expected to play nearly as much as Alexander-Walker, but he’s managed 15.25 DraftKings points in three of four games. That hasn’t been enough to return value, but his price tag has plummeted to just $2,800 for Game 5. That gives him some buy-low appeal.
  • Isaiah Joe ($2,400): Conversely, Joe’s price tag has come up significantly. He’s seen a solid handful of minutes in this series, but he’s tough to justify at $2,400.
  • Kenrich Williams ($1,200): The Thunder have dusted off Williams for this series after playing sparingly vs. the Grizzlies and Lakers. He’s responded with at least 9.0 DraftKings points in each of the team’s three wins, and he’s still priced near the minimum.
  • Aaron Wiggins ($1,000): Wiggins picked up a DNP-CD in Game 4, his first of the postseason. While he’s still an important part of the team’s future, this doesn’t feel like his series.
  • Terrence Shannon ($1,000): The Timberwolves have given Shannon some run in the past few games, and he’s given them some production. He had 11.0 DraftKings points in Game 4 and 21.5 in Game 3’s blowout, so he’s the best min-priced option on the slate. 

Pictured: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Photo Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

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We’ll have our first opportunity to see a team punch their ticket to the NBA Finals on Wednesday. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the best team in basketball this season, and they currently lead the Minnesota Timberwolves three games to one in the Western Conference Finals. They managed to bounce back from an embarrassing Game 3 loss with a win in Game 4, and they’re listed as 8.5-point home favorites in Game 5. The game will take place at 8:30 p.m. ET, and the total sits at 220.5.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
Become a PRO Member
 

NBA DFS Stud Picks

The Thunder have a lot of things working for them, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is undoubtedly one of the best. He took home the MVP award for his work during the regular season, and he’s been just as unstoppable in the playoffs.

He’s coming off a monster performance in the team’s Game 4 win. He racked up 40 points, 10 assists, and nine rebounds, resulting in 68.25 DraftKings points. That was his top mark of the playoffs, but it doesn’t stand out as a massive outlier. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but two games during the postseason, and those were two massive blowouts where he played reduced minutes.

Ultimately, there’s no reason to expect much different from SGA on Wednesday. It doesn’t matter what opposing defenses do; he’s going to get his. He’s scored at least 54.25 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, and he leads the slate in median projection, ceiling projection, and projected Plus/Minus. He’s expected to carry the most ownership on the slate, but he’s an extremely tough fade.

Anthony Edwards is the other stud to consider in this matchup. Unlike SGA, Edwards is coming off arguably his worst performance of the postseason in Game 4. The Thunder somehow limited him to just two field goal attempts in the first half of what was essentially a must-win game, which is almost unfathomable. He was more aggressive in the second, shooting 4-11 from the field, but it wasn’t enough to salvage his overall numbers. Edwards finished with just 16 points, four rebounds, six assists, and five turnovers, resulting in 28.0 DraftKings points.

The Thunder are arguably the toughest matchup in all of basketball. They were the No. 1 defense in the league during the regular season, and they’ve been even more imposing during the playoffs.

That said, it’s hard to imagine Edwards not being more aggressive in a potential elimination game. He had 54.75 DraftKings points in Games 2 and 3, so he’s certainly capable of succeeding in this matchup. He doesn’t grade out quite as well as SGA from a ceiling or value standpoint, but he has some bounce-back appeal in this spot. If the Timberwolves do manage to extend this series another game, expect it to be on the back of a big game from Edwards.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Midrange Picks

Jalen Williams has been the Thunder’s No. 2 offensive option all season, but he had some shaky moments vs. the Nuggets in the previous round. However, he put together a big Game 7 against Denver, which has springboarded him into a much better series vs. the Timberwolves. He’s had at least 47.0 DraftKings points in each of the team’s three wins, including 53.25 DraftKings points in Game 4.

Williams has shot the ball significantly better against Minnesota. He’s averaging 23.0 points per game while knocking down 49.3% of his shots from the field and 50.0% from 3-point range. He’s also leading the team with 25 rebounds and nine steals in this series, so he’s capable of stuffing the stat sheet in a variety of areas.

Williams is up to $9,800 for Game 5, but that still feels like too cheap a price tag. He trails only Gilgeous-Alexander in projected Plus/Minus, and his salary comes with a 98% Bargain Rating.

Julius Randle has been the Timberwolves’ No. 2 option this postseason, and he was instrumental in their wins over the Lakers and Warriors. He completely erased the previous narrative about him struggling to produce in the postseason and any potential concerns about his fit in Minnesota.

Unfortunately, those concerns have come right back to the forefront in this series. Randle has been largely ineffective against the Thunder’s swarming defense, which has massively impacted his playing time of late. He routinely logged more than 40 minutes per game vs. the Warriors, but he’s failed to crack 30 minutes in each of his past two games. He’s had less than 20 DraftKings points in two of his past three.

That makes it extremely tough to trust Randle at his current price tag. We currently have Randle projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and that could end up being a bit generous. Even so, he still grades out as one of the worst values of the day.

Chet Holmgren hasn’t displayed a ton of upside of late, but he’s been pretty consistent. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past six games, including 39.75 DraftKings points in his last outing. One of the lone exceptions was the Game 3 blowout loss, and he played just 20.8 minutes in that contest.

Holmgren doesn’t see the volume of minutes you’d typically expect for a player in this price range, but he’s typically very effective when on the floor. He’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute during the postseason, which is the second-best mark on the Thunder.

Jaden McDaniels has been one of the more effective role players for the Timberwolves in this series. He’s coming off his best performance in Game 4, finishing with 40.5 DraftKings points in 31.2 minutes, and he had another 32.0 DraftKings points in Game 2. 

McDaniels is only projected for 34 minutes in Game 5, but that should still give him a solid chance to return value.

Randle isn’t the only big man struggling for the Timberwolves. The same can be said for Naz Reid and Rudy Gobert, who also can’t seem to stay on the floor. 

Reid managed to return value in Games 2 and 3, but he scored just 25.0 and 26.0 DraftKings points in those contests. In other words, he didn’t exactly light it up. He’s up to $7,000 on DraftKings and is projected for just 24 minutes, and it’s hard to get excited about him at those figures.

Gobert is projected for a bit more playing time (29 minutes), and he’s also a bit cheaper at $6,400. He’s also projected for 29 minutes in our NBA Models and had just under 30 DraftKings points in Game 4, so he appears to be the superior option.

His playing time has also trended in the right direction after logging just 21.3 minutes in Game 1. He’s played at least 28.2 minutes in three straight, including 32.3 minutes in his last outing. He’s still far from a must-play, but he at least appears to be a viable option.

In addition to having the league MVP, the Thunder also have one of the deepest rosters in basketball. That gives them massive flexibility. Isaiah Hartenstein played a big role in their series vs. the Nuggets, but he hasn’t carried nearly the same workload vs. the Timberwolves. He’s played less than 20 minutes in three of the four outings, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in all four games. His price tag has come down to $6,800, but that’s still way too expensive for the role he’s played.

Donte DiVincenzo has been quiet in his first year with the Timberwolves, but he broke out with 35.75 DraftKings points in Game 4. He scored 21 points and knocked down five of eight 3-pointers, so he could play a bigger role in Game 5. He’s currently projected for just 25 minutes in our NBA Models, but that could end up being a conservative estimate.

 

NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks

  • Alex Caruso ($4,800): Caruso hasn’t had a huge statistical impact during the playoffs, but he’s been instrumental with his work on defense. He’s coming off 33.5 minutes in Game 4, and he’s projected for another 28 minutes on Wednesday. That makes him a viable target at $4,800. Caruso has historically averaged more than 20 DraftKings points with a comparable minute projection as a member of the Thunder (per the Trends tool), and you’ll take that type of production at $4,800.
  • Lu Dort ($4,600): Dort is another massive part of the Thunder’s defense who hasn’t contributed a ton offensively. He’s gone for more than 14.5 DraftKings points in just one of four games vs. the Timberwolves, but he went for 30.0 in that outlier. That at least gives him a really solid ceiling for his price tag.
  • Cason Wallace ($4,200): Wallace has been more reliable than Dort in this series. He’s scored at least 18.25 DraftKings points in each of the team’s three wins, and he’s had at least 21.75 DraftKings points in two of them. His 28 projected minutes are nearly identical to Dort’s, and he’s been the more productive player on a per-minute basis during the playoffs.
  • Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($3,400): With the Timberwolves’ big men struggling in this series, the team has had to look for alternative answers. Alexander-Walker has been one of them. He’s played at least 25.4 minutes in three of the first four games, including 29.3 minutes in Game 4. He responded with a massive 43.0 DraftKings points, and while that’s definitely an outlier, he stands out as one of the best values of the day. He trails only SGA and Williams in terms of projected Plus/Minus.
  • Mike Conley ($2,800): Conley is another solid target in this price range. He’s not expected to play nearly as much as Alexander-Walker, but he’s managed 15.25 DraftKings points in three of four games. That hasn’t been enough to return value, but his price tag has plummeted to just $2,800 for Game 5. That gives him some buy-low appeal.
  • Isaiah Joe ($2,400): Conversely, Joe’s price tag has come up significantly. He’s seen a solid handful of minutes in this series, but he’s tough to justify at $2,400.
  • Kenrich Williams ($1,200): The Thunder have dusted off Williams for this series after playing sparingly vs. the Grizzlies and Lakers. He’s responded with at least 9.0 DraftKings points in each of the team’s three wins, and he’s still priced near the minimum.
  • Aaron Wiggins ($1,000): Wiggins picked up a DNP-CD in Game 4, his first of the postseason. While he’s still an important part of the team’s future, this doesn’t feel like his series.
  • Terrence Shannon ($1,000): The Timberwolves have given Shannon some run in the past few games, and he’s given them some production. He had 11.0 DraftKings points in Game 4 and 21.5 in Game 3’s blowout, so he’s the best min-priced option on the slate. 

Pictured: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Photo Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

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NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Oct. 19): New-Look Spurs and Hornets Providing Value NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings and FanDuel (Tuesday, Dec. 5) NBA DFS (Wednesday, November 6): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Friday, November 8)