On Monday night, the Western Conference Finals continue in Minneapolis after the Timberwolves got a huge, blowout home win on Saturday. The home team has won the first three games in the series, and the Thunder are still leading the best-of-seven series, 2-1. The Timberwolves can level the series with another win on Monday, while the Thunder will look to take a commanding 3-1 lead. Game 4 tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET at the Target Center and provides another opportunity for everyone to enter DFS fantasy basketball Showdown contests on DraftKings.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Game 3 was a very strange statistical outlier in many ways since it turned into a blowout so early. Most of the stars checked out in the third quarter and did not return, while players who had barely played in the postseason soaked up plenty of late minutes. Players like Leonard Miller for the Timberwolves and Ajay Mitchell for the Thunder starred in the fourth quarter instead of the usual stars, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards.
The main stars should be back on center stage for this contest, though, and for the most part, I think we can ignore how Game 3 impacted their averages in this series. Thunder guard and MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander once again has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on Monday night for Game 4. He also has the highest salary, giving him the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
After 55.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 59.75 DraftKings points in Game 2, he only had 26.5 DraftKings points in Game 3. He had 14 points and six assists, snapping a streak of four straight games with 30+ points. His assist numbers have been especially strong against the Wolves, and he will look to lead his team in a bounce-back performance after getting embarrassed on Saturday.
On the other side of the matchup, Anthony Edwards has a salary that is $800 lower in a UTIL spot and $1,200 lower in the Captain spot. This season, we’ve been excited about our partnership with ShotQuality, and in the ShotQuality projections, Edwards has a higher ceiling, median, and floor projection than every other player on the slate, even SGA. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in both sets of projections by a wide margin.
In the playoffs, Edwards is averaging 50.4 DraftKings points per game at a rate of 1.28 DraftKings points per minute. He only played 30 minutes on Saturday but still poured in 30 points, nine rebounds, six assists, and two steals for 54.75 DraftKings points. He continues to be even better in the playoffs at home, where he averaged over 55 DraftKings points per game.
Edwards had a down Game 1 with just 18 points in a blowout loss but stormed back with 32 points and 54.75 DraftKings points in Game 2. At home, there’s a strong case that Edwards is the better fantasy play to build around of the two superstar guards since he comes at a lower salary.
Julius Randle had 24 points in 30 minutes in Game 3 but didn’t have the supporting stats to quite reach his salary-based expectations. He struggled in the first two games of the series but was able to score points quickly on Saturday and push the game out of reach. After going 2-for-11 from the field in Game 2 for just six points and 19.75 DraftKings points, he went 9-for-15 on Saturday with 24 points and 34.5 DraftKings points.
Randle’s performance will be key to determining if the Timberwolves can even the series 2-2, and he has been excellent in the playoffs for Minnesota so far this year, especially at home.
Jalen Williams has the third-highest ceiling, floor, and median projection on the slate and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus in both sets of projections. He ranks ahead of Randle in each of those categories even though Randle is more expensive.
Williams had 47 DraftKings points in Game 1 and stepped up with 26 points, 10 boards, five assists, and 50.5 DraftKings points in his first double-double of the postseason in Game 2. He struggled in Game 3 with just 20 DraftKings points in 25 minutes but should be set for a bounce-back showing in. Game 4. He did have a down game in the last round against the Nuggets in Game 6, but bounced back with a big Game 7 to secure the series win. The projections indicate he’ll have a nice bounce-back on Monday and could be a good Captain’s Pick option based on his salary being the lowest of the four stud plays.
You can go with Williams as Captain and slide SGA or Edwards next to him in a UTIL spot with enough salary to still build a strong roster. Either superstar guard could also go off and be a worthy Captain’s Pick play as well, with Edwards looking slightly stronger in our projections, but SGA bringing big-time bounce-back potential since he’ll try to take over Game 4 to avoid another outcome like Game 3.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
In the frontcourt for the Thunder, Chet Holmgren has posted solid numbers, very solid throughout the playoffs, averaging 34.1 DraftKings points per game with the third-highest usage rate among players in the regular rotation. After you get past the four studs discussed above, Holmgren is next up with the fifth-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in both the FantasyLabs and ShotQuality projections.
He showed his upside with 34.25 DraftKings points in Game 1 but only had 21.75 DraftKings points in Game 3. If you have the salary available, Holmgren is a strong option, but he is a little pricey compared to the other mid-range options and doesn’t have to be prioritized at the cost of the rest of your lineup.
Isaiah Hartenstein is still playing meaningful minutes for the Thunder, but he has also had lower numbers in this series with just 18.75, 20.5 and 15.5 DraftKings points in the three games. With SGA and Williams doing most of the work offensive and Holmgren as the third option, Hartenstein is counted on for defense and rebounding, which makes him extremely important to the team but slightly over-priced for fantasy use
One of the most important mid-range options to consider from the Thunder is Luguentz Dort. Dort has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus in this matchup in the FantasyLabs projections behind only Edwards and SGA, and he has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the ShotQuality projections as well.
He’s extremely affordable at under $4,000 in a UTIL spot and has played a much more involved role in this series based on the rotation matchup. He played 28 minutes in Game 1, 35 minutes in Game 2, and 22 minutes in Game 3. Dort didn’t do much in Game 3’s blowout loss but had a playoff-high 30 DraftKings points in Game 2 on nine points, eight rebounds, four assists, and two steals. He hadn’t produced as much during the first two series for the Thunder, but he is a key to the team’s defensive strategy against Minnesota. His expanded role makes him a great value in a UTIL spot from under $4,000.
Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace remain involved as well, although neither did much of anything in Game 3. Wallace has looked slightly better in this matchup so far, but both have solid potential as important rotation pieces for OKC.
On the other side of the matchup in the midrange, Minnesota has some strong plays to consider. Jaden McDaniels had a quick 10 points and 24.5 DraftKings points in Game 3 after his big 22-point performance in Game 3 that earned him 32 DraftKings points.
He’s the most expensive UTIL play in the midrange for Minnesota, but I’d give him the nod over Holmgren since the game is in Minnesota and McDaniels has produced over 30 DraftKings points in four of his last seven playoff games while averaging 28.9 DraftKings points per game during the postseason.
Rudy Gobert is right next to McDaniels in the projections and comes at an even cheaper salary of just $6,600 in a UTIL spot. He was held under 20 DraftKings points in the first two games of the series but bounced back with seven points, seven rebounds, and 24.75 DraftKings points in Game 3, making him one of the few regular contributors to exceed salary-based expectations.
Gobert’s projections are higher than Naz Reid’s, despite Reid’s higher salary. Reid has exactly 10 points and eight rebounds for 25 and 26 DraftKings points in the last two games. He always brings a high ceiling off the bench but is high risk at his price point.
In the backcourt, the Mike Conley vs. Donte DiVincenzo debate on X has been hot but neither has made much of an impact in the series yet. They both have potential for big nights, but Conley is the better play of the two at this point since he’s getting the minutes with the starters. DiVincenzo is intriguing, though, since he has a history of stepping up in big games and can be a streaky contributor if he gets hot.
Of the mid-range options from both teams, Holmgren and McDaniels stand out as the two strongest options by a wide margin. Dort and Gobert stand out as strong values at their salary, with Conley and Wallace decent bargains getting solid minutes.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with our Sleeper Fantasy promo code.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($3,600): Alexander-Walker’s salary jumped $1,200 after his big Game 3, but he is still a solid value play. He had 12 points and 18.75 DraftKings points in Game 3 after producing 23 DraftKings points in Game 2. He has 15+ DraftKings points in five of his last seven games in the playoffs, making him the surest play under $4,000. Aside from mop-up duty, no other player in this price range has been involved for Minnesota lately, as they’ve limited their rotations in the playoffs.
- Isaiah Joe ($1,200): Joe came off the bench with seven points, eight rebounds, and 19 DraftKings points in Game 1 and took seven shots off the bench in Game 3. The opportunities are enough to make him one of the better punt plays, but he is high risk after being held under 10 DraftKings points in each of the last two games.
- Jaylin Williams ($1,600): Williams got minutes in the last round against the Nuggets in an effort to slow down Nikola Jokic but didn’t play in the first two games of the series. He played more in Game 3 but went 0-for-6 from the field (all three-point attempts), so he didn’t make much of a positive impact.
- Aaron Wiggins ($1,000): Wiggins’ minutes have been limited in the postseason and especially in this series. He has stepped up when given a larger role in blowouts, but his playing time is hard to trust even at this salary.
- Kenrich Williams ($1,000): Williams had eight points and 12.25 DraftKings points in Game 1 but only played two minutes in Game 2. In Game 3, he had eight points once again and finished with 9.0 DraftKings points in 14 minutes.
- Ajay Mitchell ($1,000): After the Thunder pulled their starters, Mitchell stepped up with 14 points and 18 DraftKings points in 19 minutes. He had only played two minutes in the first two games of the series, though, so he probably won’t get work unless the game gets lopsided or the Thunder make a major rotation change.
- Leonard Miller ($1,000): Miller was the Timberwolves’ equivalent to Mitchell, pouring in 11 points and 14.75 DraftKings points in cleanup duty. He had only appeared in two other playoff games at all and isn’t likely to figure into Game 4 unless it turns into another blowout. He and Mitchell can be noted, for sure, but don’t seem like good plays on Monday.
