NBA

NBA DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown for Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 6

By Matt LaMarca @MattLaMarca
May 15, 2025

Thursday’s NBA slate features just one game, but it should be a good one. The Nuggets will host the Thunder in Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals, with the Thunder currently holding a 3-2 series lead. OKC is currently listed as 4.5-point road favorites, and if they win, they’ll advance to face the Timberwolves in the conference championship. If the Nuggets can get the job done at home, they’ll set up a decisive Game 7 back in Oklahoma City on Saturday.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

NBA DFS Stud Picks

This series has featured the two MVP favorites from this season—Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander—and they’ve been two of the very best players in fantasy this season.

Let’s start with Jokic. He’s expected to finish second in the MVP voting this year, but there’s no doubt about his status as the top player in basketball. That’s particularly true from a fantasy perspective. He’s capable of dominating a game in multiple areas, resulting in some eye-popping production. He finished in the top three in points, rebounds, and assists per game this season, averaging a triple-double. For fantasy purposes, he averaged a gaudy 1.85 DraftKings points per minute.

The Thunder have actually done a decent job against Jokic for much of this series, and they’ve been one of the toughest matchups in the league all season. They’re No. 1 in defensive efficiency, and they have a few different big men to try to slow him down.

Still, Jokic can only be held in check for so long. He broke out with a massive performance in Game 5. He was extremely efficient from the field, finishing with 44 points on 17-25 shooting, and he added 15 rebounds and five assists. The result was 77.25 DraftKings points in his 44.1 minutes.

Jokic also went off for 84.5 DraftKings points back in Game 1, and he managed to get to at least 54.5 in Games 3 and 4. His only truly poor showing was in Game 2, and that was a blowout loss where he played just 32.3 minutes.

With the Nuggets facing elimination on Thursday, expect Jokic to be on the floor for nearly the full contest. That’s an extremely tough proposition to pass up. He’s obviously expensive—and should be the highest-owned player on the slate—but it’s tough to imagine not rostering him on this slate.

Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to take home the first MVP award of his career, and he’s been pretty good in this series. He’s scored at least 50.5 DraftKings points in four of five games, including 55.0 in his last outing.

That said, he’s not Jokic. He’s one of the best pure scorers in basketball, leading the league in points per game this season, but he’s not nearly the same producer in the peripheral categories. The Thunder also don’t need SGA to carry the same burden that Jokic does for the Nuggets.

He still stands out as a fantastic option in our NBA Models, and playing him alongside Jokic is certainly viable. It will require you to get creative with some of the other spots in your lineup—especially if you want to use one at captain—but it is theoretically possible. However, if you’re choosing between them, it’s hard to argue against Jokic with such a minimal price disparity between the two players.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Midrange Picks

Part of the reason why Jokic has had to carry such an immense burden is that he’s getting minimal help from his teammates. That includes Jamal Murray. Murray was instrumental for the team during their title-winning run two years ago, routinely hitting clutch shots down the stretch. He has simply not been the same player this season. He’s cracked 39.0 DraftKings points just once in this series, and he shot just 10-27 from the field and 3-13 from 3-point range in Game 5.

Still, it’s hard to ignore that kind of volume. His usage rate was actually higher than Jokic’s on Tuesday, and his 27 shot attempts were the most for any player on either team.

That gives him an excellent ceiling if his jumper starts falling in Game 6. That will be easier said than done vs. the Thunder, but we’ve already seen it once during the postseason. He shot 17-26 from the field against the Clippers in Game 5 of their first-round series, and he responded with 71.25 DraftKings points. Ultimately, his upside could be a bit undervalued in this spot.

Jalen Williams is the No. 2 option for the Thunder, but he doesn’t have nearly the same ceiling as Murray. He’s not as gifted a scorer, and he’s not going to see nearly the same volume of shot attempts.

That said, he is a more consistent producer. He’s capable of impacting the game in multiple ways, and he averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season.

Williams hasn’t produced at the same level during the postseason, but he’s still gone for at least 36.0 DraftKings points in four of five games vs. the Nuggets. He’s a low-risk, low-reward type of play, but he trails only Jokic and SGA in projected Plus/Minus in our NBA Models.

This has not really been a series for Chet Holmgren. He doesn’t have the size to combat Jokic 1-on-1, which has limited his court time. He’s played 33.7 minutes or fewer in four of five games, and he’s been below 30 minutes in three of them.

Holmgren is still capable of putting up numbers in limited playing time, which he put on display in OKC’s Game 2 blowout. He finished with 42.25 DraftKings points in just 26.4 minutes, and he averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season.

Still, he’s projected for just 33 minutes in Game 6, which is easily the worst mark among the high-priced options. He has some upside, but he doesn’t stand out as a particularly strong value.

Aaron Gordon has become arguably the Nuggets’ second-most-important player. He’s always been a solid role player, and he’s had a career year as a perimeter shooter. He knocked down 43.6% of his 3-point attempts during the regular season, and when he plays well, so do the Nuggets. He’s scored 43.0 and 43.5 DraftKings points in the team’s two wins in this series, but he’s had 24.75 or fewer in two of their three losses.

It’s hard to know exactly how the game is going to play out, but it could make Gordon a bit overowned in a game where the Thunder are favored. He’s one of the few expensive players with a negative leverage score on this slate.

With Holmgren’s minutes being limited, it has opened the door for Isaiah Hartenstein to play a bit more in this series. He’s a more traditional center, and he’s been tasked with guarding Jokic for most of this matchup.

That has allowed Holmgren to provide decent production. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of five matchups, and the lone exception was Game 1. He picked up five fouls in that contest, so it stands out as a bit of an outlier.

Unsurprisingly, Holmgren and Hartenstein have a negative correlation, so playing both together doesn’t make much sense. You don’t need to play either, but if you are going to target one, it should eliminate the other from consideration.

Minutes have not been an issue for Christian Braun in this series. The Nuggets have had massive depth problems during the playoffs, so Braun has played as much as he can handle. That includes at least 43.0 minutes in three straight games.

Braun is projected for another 41 minutes on Thursday, and that’s a ton of playing time for someone with a $6,600 price tag. He’s historically averaged 31.96 DraftKings points in games with at least 38 minutes of playing time (per the Trends tool), so he’s definitely a viable option on this slate.

Michael Porter Jr. is a massive x-factor at the moment. He’s dealing with a shoulder injury, and if it weren’t the playoffs, he would almost certainly be out of the lineup. He’s trying to tough it out, but Porter isn’t exactly a model of consistency even at full strength. It makes it nearly impossible to predict what you’re going to get on a nightly basis.

The most likely outcome is a subpar showing. He’s scored 15.75 DraftKings points or fewer in four of five games in this series, including each of the past two. However, he also has a bit of upside. He scored 34.5 DraftKings points in Game 3, and his salary has dipped by -$1,600 since the start of the postseason. He should also command minimal ownership, making him an interesting GPP target.

Russell Westbrook has been way more important for the Nuggets than most would’ve expected before the start of the season. He has his flaws, but he always plays at 100% intensity. That has value in a league where motivation can vary on a night-to-night basis.

However, Westbrook’s role has shrunk as this series has progressed. He failed to crack 20 minutes for the first time in Game 5, and he finished with just 14.5 DraftKings points. With the Nuggets now facing elimination, it’s hard to imagine that changing.

Alex Caruso is a bit like the Thunder’s version of Westbrook. He’s an energy guy off the bench, and he can be an absolute menace defensively.

However, Caruso doesn’t have the same offensive deficiencies as Westbrook, which has made him more value as the playoffs have progressed. He’s not playing huge minutes, but he’s capable of making the most of his time on the floor. He had 45.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 vs. the Nuggets, and he had two games with at least 31.5 DraftKings points vs. the Grizzlies. That gives him a decent ceiling for his price tag.