The NBA Finals officially get underway on Thursday. Game 1 will take place in Oklahoma City with the Thunder hosting the Pacers. OKC is listed as a massive 9.5-point favorite, while the total sits at 230.5.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stands out as the clear top option in this matchup. While he’s had to contend with guys like Nikola Jokic and Anthony Edwards in previous series, the Pacers don’t really have a superstar who is capable of rivaling him from a fantasy standpoint. That’s reflected in our projections. SGA has the top median projection by more than 12 points, and the gap is similar from a ceiling standpoint.
Gilgeous-Alexander has been extremely consistent all playoffs. He’s a scoring machine, leading the league with 32.7 points per game during the regular season, and he’s carried that into the postseason. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but two games, and both were blowouts where he played less than 28 minutes. In other words, he’s matched or exceeded value every time he’s played his usual workload during the playoffs.
SGA has scored at least 31 points in eight of his past nine games, and there’s no reason to expect anything different on Thursday. If anything, his scoring output could increase in this series. The Pacers are not a particularly strong defensive squad, ranking ninth in defensive efficiency during the postseason.
Ultimately, Gilgeous-Alexander has been the most productive player on a per-minute basis between these squads, and no one is projected for more than his 38 minutes in our NBA Models. It’s hard to beat that combination, and he leads all players in projected Plus/Minus. He should be a staple in nearly 100% of lineups, either at Captain or in a utility spot.
Tyrese Haliburton is the Pacers’ stud option, and while he’s not quite on the same level as SGA, he’s not that far off, either. He’s had a tremendous postseason, putting together some monster performances through the first three rounds. His 84.5 DraftKings points in Game 4 vs. the Knicks was his magnum opus – 32 points, 12 rebounds, 15 assists, four steals, zero turnovers – but he has five other games with more than 55 DraftKings points during the playoffs. Overall, he’s actually increased his production to 1.29 DraftKings points per minute during the postseason, compared to just 1.25 during the regular season.
Unfortunately, the matchup vs. the Thunder is as tough as it gets. They were first in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season, and they’ve maintained that ranking in the playoffs. They have a host of bodies to throw at Haliburton defensively, and they’re capable of wreaking havoc on that end of the floor. The matchup results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -7.51, and he averaged just 11.0 points, 5.5 assists, and 3.0 rebounds across 32 minutes per game in two contests vs. the Thunder during the regular season.
Ultimately, it’s hard to get too excited about Haliburton in this spot. OKC has made a living of shutting down opponents, so expectations with Haliburton should be lower than usual.
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NBA DFS Midrange Picks
Jalen Williams has blossomed into the No. 2 option for the Thunder, and when he plays well, they’re nearly impossible to beat. He experienced some growing pains in a tougher-than-expected series vs. the Nuggets, but he bounced back with some excellent performances vs. the Timberwolves. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in each game besides the Game 3 blowout, and he got to at least 47.0 DraftKings points in three of them.
When he’s at his best, Williams is capable of contributing in every category across the board. He can score, rebound, and distribute, and he’s also adept at picking up steals on defense. He hasn’t been quite as productive on a per-minute basis as he was during the regular season, but he’s still averaged a very respectable 1.14 DraftKings points per minute.
Only SGA is projected for more than Williams’ 37 minutes on Thursday, while his $9,800 salary is very reasonable. If he puts together another strong showing, don’t be surprised if he cracks five figures for Game 2.
Pascal Siakam was instrumental in the Pacers’ upset of the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals, taking home MVP in the process. He carried the offense in Game 2, finishing with 39 points and 52.75 DraftKings points, and he also had at least 30 points in Games 4 and 6.
The biggest issue with Siakam is consistency. There are nights when it appears the Pacers forget how capable he is on offense, and his production can suffer in those spots. He’s already had five games with 27.5 DraftKings points or fewer in this series, which is more than you’d expect for someone in this price range.
Siakam’s price tag is also up to $9,400 for Game 1, which is as expensive as he’s been all playoffs. It’s hard to imagine him having the same impact vs. the Thunder that he did vs. the Knicks, making him an interesting sell-high candidate. Still, he clearly has some upside, and he’s projected for minimal ownership in our NBA Models.
Chet Holmgren remains an extremely productive fantasy player when on the court. The big question is, how often will he be on the court vs. the Pacers? His minutes have been volatile over the past two series, which has capped his upside.
That said, he’s managed to post a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, scoring at least 37.75 DraftKings points in both contests. He played just 33.1 and 30.3 minutes in those outings, so he’s clearly capable of providing value in limited minutes. We have him projected for 31 minutes on Thursday, making him a high-risk, high-reward type of player.
Myles Turner is another player who can be tough to pin down. He was awesome in the series vs. the Cavaliers, but he lost a ton of playing time vs. the Knicks. He saw just 24.2 and 21.1 minutes in the final two contests, making him a bit of a question mark for Game 1.
We’re taking a bit of an optimistic approach to Turner’s minutes in our NBA Models, with him currently projected for 30. However, that’s still not enough to make him an appealing option at $8,000. He has the second-worst projected Plus/Minus in this tier, so the downside far outweighs the potential upside.
Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith have been huge for the Pacers all playoffs, and their development is a big reason why they’ve made it to the NBA Finals. Nembhard was an absolute monster in their Game 6 win over the Knicks, finishing with 44.25 DraftKings points thanks in part to six steals, while Nesmith was the hero with eight 3-pointers in Game 1.
Both players should continue to play solid roles for the Pacers, but both have become a bit pricy. Nembhard checks in at $7,400 on this slate, while Nesmith is up to $7,000. Nesmith specifically was priced in the $5k range for most of the early playoffs, so there’s less value here than there was previously. They’re still capable of returning value at their elevated figures, but it’s going to take significantly more to do so.
Isaiah Hartenstein has seen fewer and fewer minutes for the Thunder as the playoffs have progressed. They’re opting for smaller lineups, and he’s paid the price from a playing time standpoint.
We’re expecting more of the same vs. the Pacers. He’s currently projected for 20 minutes in our NBA Models, and it’s going to be tough for him to return value with such minimal playing time. He’s failed to crack 21.75 DraftKings points in six straight games, so he’s overpriced at $6,400.
Hartenstein’s loss has been Alex Caruso’s gain. He’s seen a bump in minutes during the postseason after averaging just 19.3 minutes per game during the regular season. That hasn’t necessarily led to a huge spike in production, but he has put together a few ceiling performances.
Caruso is projected for another 25 minutes in Game 1, making him an interesting option. He’s averaged more than 20 DraftKings points per game with a comparable playing time projection as a member of the Thunder (per the Trends tool).
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Lu Dort ($4,800): How much Dort ends up playing on Thursday is tied directly to how well he shoots the basketball. When he’s making shots, he has the potential to play a bunch of minutes. He’s coming off 38.1 minutes in Game 5 vs. the Timberwolves, and he has at least 30.2 minutes in three of his past four games. However, when his shot is not falling, head coach Mark Daigneault is not afraid to keep him on the bench. That gives him some downside, but there’s also plenty of upside at just $4,800.
- Cason Wallace ($4,400): Wallace hasn’t displayed a huge ceiling during the playoffs, but he’s been remarkably consistent of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past nine games, with the lone exception being the Game 3 blowout vs. the Timberwolves. He’s very rarely going to kill your lineups, and that has value at $4,400.
- T.J. McConnell ($4,000): McConnell is an elite per-minute producer, and he was able to take advantage of the Knicks’ backcourt in the Eastern Conference Finals. It remains to be seen if he can have the same impact vs. a much better defensive squad, but he’s projected for another 16 minutes in our NBA Models.
- Obi Toppin ($3,600): Toppin’s playing time was on the rise vs. the Knicks, culminating in 25 minutes and 31.0 DraftKings points in Game 6. He’s an outstanding per-minute producer, so he’s clearly underpriced if he’s going to continue to play that much. We only have him projected for 19 minutes in Game 1, but that’s still good enough to rank fifth on the slate in projected Plus/Minus.
- Bennedict Mathurin ($3,000): Mathurin was extremely “feast or famine” in the Eastern Conference Finals. He went for 33.75 DraftKings points in Game 5 and 25.5 DraftKings points in Game 4, but he had 12.75 or fewer in the other four games. That includes just 4.75 DraftKings points across 8.6 minutes in his last outing. He ultimately has a wide range of outcomes, but his ceiling at this price tag cannot be ignored.
- Ben Sheppard ($2,400): Sheppard routinely saw more minutes than Mathurin off the bench vs. the Knicks, but that didn’t lead to much fantasy production. He’s averaged just 0.50 DraftKings points per minute during the postseason, so even at a minimal price tag, he doesn’t provide a ton of value.
- Thomas Bryant ($2,000): Bryant gained back his spot in the rotation for Game 6 and responded with two massive 3-pointers in the closeout win vs. the Knicks. The Pacers’ backup center spot has been volatile, but Bryant could see a few minutes per game in this series.
- Kenrich Williams ($1,600): Speaking of volatile, Williams was a DNP-CD for most of the series vs. the Nuggets, but he got back into the rotation vs. the Timberwolves. The Thunder have an abundance of options, so they can mix and match depending on the matchup. Williams wasn’t overly productive with his playing time, but he was able to post a positive Plus/Minus in four of five games vs. Minnesota. He doesn’t need to do much to potentially pay off his $1,600 salary.
- Isaiah Joe ($1,200): Joe also came back to life vs. the Timberwolves. He’s a perimeter shooting specialist, and he knocked down three 3-pointers in the closeout win. He had two games with at least 13.75 DraftKings points vs. the Timberwolves, so he has just a smidge of upside at $1,200.
- Aaron Wiggins ($1,000): Wiggins was a key reserve for the Thunder during the regular season, but he hasn’t been nearly as important during the playoffs. He didn’t see the floor in Game 4 vs. the Timberwolves, though he bounced back with 7.5 first-half minutes in Game 5. Ultimately, he’s been too good for the Thunder all year not to have a role in the Finals. We have him projected for 12 minutes in Game 1, making him an elite buy-low target at the absolute minimum.
- Jaylin Williams ($1,000): Williams got to play a bit vs. Jokic and the Nuggets, but his role against the Timberwolves was basically nonexistent outside of garbage time. The Pacers are not a particularly big team, so it’s hard to imagine him having a role in this series.
Pictured: SGA
Photo Credit: Imagn Image
