With 11 games on Wednesday’s schedule and 11 games on deck for Friday’s NBA Cup Group Play action, the NBA has just a single matchup on the scoreboard this Thursday. The 3-4 Clippers head to Phoenix to face the 3-5 Suns. The Suns are 3-1 at home, while the Clippers have lost both their road games. Neither team played on Wednesday or Friday, and the two teams will meet in a rematch on Saturday in Los Angeles. Let’s take a closer look at this standalone matchup from a DFS fantasy basketball Showdown perspective to help you build your lineup for Thursday’s contests on DraftKings.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
The major storylines to be aware of for this Thursday’s showdown are apparent on the injury report. While the Suns are expected to have trade acquisition Jalen Green (hamstring) available for the first time this season, the Clippers will be missing their two biggest stars, with James Harden (personal) and Kawhi Leonard (ankle) out. Without those two stars, there is plenty of value and upside from the rest of the Clippers roster since so much usage will be available.
Before we get to who will carry the load for Los Angeles, though, let’s start at the top of the projections with Suns guard Devin Booker, who has the highest median and ceiling projection in the FantasyLabs projections for Thursday. Booker has scored 30+ points in five of his last six games and has over 45 DraftKings points in each of his last five contests, highlighted by a 36-point performance against the Jazz on Halloween that earned him 61.5 DraftKings points.
He’s producing 47.7 DraftKings points per game, and with so many Clippers missing, he brings the clearest high ceiling on the slate. He’s been carrying the scoring load in the early part of the season without Green available, and he should once again be the focus of the offense for Phoenix.
While Green will likely take some of the work, he could be eased into the rotation and isn’t a great play compared to the Clippers at similar salaries with more expected workload.
Mark Williams has been the other key fantasy producer for the Suns. When Williams is healthy and at full strength, he’s proven very capable of posting monster numbers, and he has three big double-doubles this season with at least 44 DraftKings points. He had 16 points, 16 rebounds, and 44.5 DraftKings points on Tuesday in his last game, and he brings that good ceiling on Thursday as a secondary option to Booker in the Suns’ offense.
On the Clippers’ side of the box score, Ivica Zubac is the best fantasy option from the regular starters remaining without Harden and Kawhi. He had a huge game on Monday with 18 rebounds and three assists in a loss to the Heat, but he only had seven points and seven boards on Tuesday in a loss to the Thunder.
Zubac could take on a larger role without Kawhi and Harden, but he isn’t really much of a creator of his own shot, so he’ll need help from someone stepping up in the backcourt as well. He has the highest floor projection in this contest in the FantasyLabs projections and the ShotQuality projections, where he also has the highest ceiling projections.
With so much offensive potential and a lower salary than Booker, Zubac has a strong case to be Captain’s Pick on Thursday night, although there could be even more value from a cheaper Clipper stepping into a larger role, allowing you to build both Zubac and Booker in as UTIL options.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
In both sets of projections, Bogdan Bogdanovic has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the night by a wide margin. He’s only $1,000 in a UTIL spot in both sets of projections, and he only costs $1,500 in your Captain’s Pick spot, leaving salary to stuff in all the remaining stars in UTIL spots.
Bogdanovic seems most likely to carry the offensive workload with Harden and Leonard out. This will be Harden’s first missed game of the year, but Kawhi missed Tuesday’s game, and Bogdanovic stepped in with 11 points (3-8 FG, 2-6 3Pt, 3-4 FT), six rebounds, four assists, and two steals over 30 minutes for 29 DraftKings points.
Bogdanovic didn’t even play in four of the team’s six games before that since he was buried on the bench, but he still has the ability to step into a larger workload when he’s called on. He can fill in as point guard as well but will most likely spend most of his time on the wing while Kris Dunn and Chris Paul share point guard duties.
Dunn had over 21 DraftKings points in each of his last two games and has great non-scoring numbers, but he is typically lower-usage than Bogdanovic with less scoring upside and value potential.
Paul has been limited to no more than 15 minutes in all but one of his games this season and has been mostly a creator, not a scorer. He’d have to really turn back the clock and take on a much bigger workload to be worth his salary as a Captain’s Pick on Thursday, but he is worth considering as a flier UTIL play. Dunn is definitely the safer of the two point guards, though, since his minutes have already been scaled up.
The other member of the Clippers’ backcourt who will help carry the load is former Suns guard Bradley Beal, who could take out any frustrations with his former squad with a throwback game of his own. He sat out Tuesday for rest purposes and has only played four of the team’s seven games, averaging an unimpressive 8.0 points, 1.0 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game. With more work available, he’s worth a look at his salary, but he has not played more than 21 minutes in any game this season or produced 20 DraftKings points to this point.
If those options aren’t picking up most of the usage and scoring, it could be the frontcourt that gets the bigger boost with Kawhi absent as well. Derrick Jones Jr. has scored at least 12 points in each of his last three games and had 29 DraftKings points on Tuesday. John Collins has also been trending up with at least 12 points in three straight games and double-digit scoring in six of his seven games this season. He had 23.5 DraftKings points on Tuesday, and Jones’ better non-scoring numbers make him my slightly preferred option of the two power forward options, especially since he comes at a much more affordable salary.
On the home team’s side of things, the debut of Jalen Green will definitely shake up the rotation on the wings. Veterans Royce O’Neale and Grayson Allen have helped carry the load to this point in the season but could take smaller roles with Green available.
Allen has been especially productive for fantasy, scoring at least 12 points in every game and averaging 16.4 points, 5.0 assists, and 3.6 rebounds per game for an average of 32.2 DraftKings points per game. If he stays in the starting lineup next to Green, he will still be a strong UTIL play, but his usage could slip a little, so he does become higher risk.
Ryan Dunn has scored at least 10 points in three straight games for the Suns, and the second-year forward should remain part of the team’s young core along with Oso Ighodaro, who usually chips in good defense and rebounding despite his limited offensive production.
For roster construction, you can build around many of the cheap Clippers as your Captain’s pick plays and have plenty left to spend in UTIL spots. Bogdanovic stands out the most in the projections because he’s so cheap, but Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. also should be great values. On the Phoenix side in the midrange, Allen is the strongest play overall with a little Ryan Dunn sprinkled in where it makes sense. If Green does make his debut, it will be fascinating to monitor how his arrival impacts the playing time of the mid-range options.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Collin Gillespie ($3,400): Gillespie has been one of the best bench players in the NBA this season and one of the bright spots in the Suns’ uneven start to the year. He stumbled a little bit on Tuesday with just eight points against Golden State, but he still had four assists and has had at least that many helpers in seven of his eight games this season. He has also scored double-digit points in five games this year and produced over 30 DraftKings points four times. Gillespie’s role will be impacted by Green’s debut, but if he keeps getting playing time, he’s definitely a great value under $3,500.
- Jordan Goodwin ($1,000): Goodwin played 17+ minutes in each of his last three games, producing 18, 22.2, and 12.2 DraftKings points in those three contests. Green’s debut potentially drains his value as well, but he has flashed some intriguing upside if you want a Suns punt play.
- Cam Christie ($1,000): If the Clippers use the absences to get their young players more work, Christie could be an interesting option as a bargain flier. He played seven minutes on Tuesday and had five points, two rebounds, and eight DraftKings points. He’s bouncing back and forth to the G League, but if he’s available, he could get minutes on Thursday night.
Pictured: Devin Booker
Photo Credit: Imagn
