NBA DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown for Pacers vs. Knicks Game 3

Sunday features Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals between the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks. The Pacers have managed to win the first two games of this series, putting the Knicks in a must-win situation with the series shifting to Indiana. The Pacers are listed as two-point home favorites, while the total sits at 223.5 points.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

NBA DFS Stud Picks

Jalen Brunson can often get overlooked. He was a second-round draft pick, and the Mavericks chose not to re-sign him in free agency after the 2021-22 season. Maybe it’s because of his size, but Brunson was never supposed to be an NBA superstar.

Of course, that’s exactly what has happened since he joined the Knicks. He took home the Clutch Player of the Year award this season, and he has the Knicks just one round away from their first trip to the NBA Finals since 2000. They’re facing an uphill battle, but with Brunson leading the charge, this team simply cannot be counted out.

Brunson has been delivering the goods all playoffs. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but three contests, including both games in this series vs. the Pacers. He’s also displayed plenty of upside, going for 60.75 DraftKings points in Game 2. It was his sixth performance with at least 54.25 DraftKings points during the playoffs, giving him the clear top ceiling for all players in this matchup.

Ultimately, Brunson leads Sunday’s slate in median and ceiling projection, and he’s tops in projected Plus/Minus as well. With the Knicks in a must-win contest, expect Brunson to carry a massive offensive burden.

Tyrese Haliburton is the Pacers’ superstar, and in some ways, he’s been better than Brunson during the playoffs. From a per-minute standpoint, no one on the slate has been better during the playoffs.

Haliburton gets his production a bit differently than Brunson, operating more as a traditional point guard. He’s capable of piling up the assists, and he’s had double-doubles in each of his first two games in the Eastern Conference Finals. That said, that doesn’t mean he’s not capable of scoring points in bunches. He had 31 points in the closeout win over the Cavaliers, and he followed that up with 31 points in Game 1 vs. the Knicks.

Haliburton’s range of outcomes is ultimately a bit wider than Brunson’s. When everything breaks right for him, he’s capable of matching or exceeding Brunson’s fantasy total. However, he also has a much lower floor. He already has games of 24.25 and 12.0 DraftKings points during the playoffs, and the Pacers simply don’t need Haliburton as much as the Knicks need Brunson. He’s projected for fewer minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him the 1B to Brunson’s 1A.

Karl-Anthony Towns rounds out this price range after checking in below $10,000 in each of his first two matchups vs. the Pacers. He was an absolute monster in Game 1, racking up 35 points and 12 rebounds en route to 60.0 DraftKings points, but he saw a massive reduction in playing time in Game 2. Mitchell Robinson has been phenomenal for the Knicks during the playoffs, and head coach Tom Thibodeau chose to ride with Robinson a bit more in that contest.

That makes Towns a tough player to handicap in Game 3. It’s possible that his minutes bounce back, but it’s also possible that he sees another reduced workload. He’s currently projected for just 35 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the lowest mark among the Knicks’ five starters.

That makes Towns a high-risk, high-reward type of play. The good news is that he’s projected for less than 20% ownership, which is easily the lowest mark among the stud tier. He’s an intriguing pivot for those who are willing to assume some risk with their lineups. Towns also has a slightly negative correlation with Brunson, so he’s particularly appealing in lineups where you’re fading the Knicks’ star point guard.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Midrange Picks

Like Towns, Josh Hart is another player who played a bit less than usual in Game 2. He logged just 28.5 minutes after playing more than 44 minutes in Game 1. His fantasy production plummeted as a result, with Hart managing just 18.0 DraftKings points.

That was his first game with fewer than 30 minutes during the playoffs, and head coach Tom Thibodeau is reportedly mulling a change to his starting lineup for Game 3. That would likely see Robinson joining the starting lineup at the expense of Hart. The Knicks’ starters are -50 for the playoffs and -29 for this series, so a lineup change feels reasonable.

That makes Hart very tough to trust as the fourth-most-expensive player in this matchup. He’s not a particularly good scorer, so he needs to rack up minutes to have an impact for fantasy purposes. Hart has the worst projected Plus/Minus in this tier despite a pretty aggressive projection of 36 minutes, so any less playing time could be a disaster.

Pascal Siakam was the star for the Pacers in Game 2. He had 39 of the team’s 114 points, and he carried the offense when they were struggling early in the game. He ultimately finished with 52.75 DraftKings points, which was his top mark of the postseason.

A repeat feels unlikely in Game 3, but Siakam is still priced cheap enough that he can survive some regression. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and his price tag has only increased by $200 for Sunday. Siakam has always been an excellent per-minute producer, so he’s a good bet to return value once again.

The Knicks spent a fortune to acquire Mikal Bridges this offseason, and he has been a workhorse for them in this series. He played more than 46 minutes in the team’s overtime loss in Game 1, and he followed that up with 45.1 minutes in Game 2.

That makes his projection of 42 minutes in Game 3 feel like a vacation. Still, it’s the top mark on the slate, and it goes without saying that playing that much is good for his fantasy outlook. Bridges has logged at least 40 minutes in 102 career games, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.13 in those contests (per the Trends tool). He’s about as safe as it gets at $8,200.

OG Anunoby has a wider range of outcomes. He hasn’t played quite as much as Bridges in this series, but he’s still seen plenty of minutes overall during the playoffs. He’s also been slightly more effective on a per-minute basis.

Anunoby is projected for 38 minutes in a must-win Game 3, and he’s a candidate for some positive shooting regression moving forward. He hasn’t been terrible in this series – he’s 12-26 from the field and 4-14 from 3-point range – but he could be a bit better in those areas.

Myles Turner hasn’t had quite the same impact in this matchup as he had vs. the Cavaliers. The Pacers have been more effective with a smaller lineup, which has impacted his playing time. He’s played 32.8 minutes or less in each of the first two games, and he’s projected for a comparable workload on Sunday.

However, Turner’s price tag has also come down slightly. That makes sense after scoring exactly 27.25 DraftKings points in each of the first two contests, but Turner has significantly more upside than that. He’s capable of averaging well over a fantasy point per minute, so he has some buy-low appeal at $7,600.

Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith round out this price range. Both of these players have excelled for the Pacers during the playoffs, but they can be tough to separate. Nembhard is currently projected for a bit more playing time, but Nesmith is cheaper and has been better on a per-minute basis.

Ultimately, both players are in play at their current salaries, but Nesmith stands out as the better value in our NBA Models. Using both together in the same lineup is definitely possible, with the two players possessing a correlation of +0.19 on DraftKings.

NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Bennedict Mathurin ($4,600): Mathurin saw less than 11 minutes in Game 2, and he’s now scored 5.5 DraftKings points or fewer in three of his past four games. He’s very tough to trust at the moment, especially at $4,600.
• Mitchell Robinson ($4,200): Robinson stands out as a clear x-factor on this slate. If he moves into the starting lineup, he’s going to be really tough to avoid at just $4,200. Even if he continues to come off the bench, he should be locked into a sizable role. He’s not the greatest producer for fantasy purposes, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two games despite scoring just eight total points.
• T.J. McConnell ($4,000): McConnell has carved the Knicks up in their first two contests. He’s typically capped at around 14 minutes a night, but he’s the clear focal point of the Pacers’ offense when he’s on the floor. He’s capable of getting into the paint for easy buckets or assists, making him an elite per-minute producer. 
• Obi Toppin ($3,600): Toppin has played just under 20 minutes per game in each of the first two contests, and he’s projected for another 20 minutes on Sunday. That makes him one of the best values of the day at just $3,600. Toppin is an elite per-minute producer, and only Brunson owns a better projected Plus/Minus in our NBA Models. He should be one of the most popular value plays of the day.
• Miles McBride ($3,400): Tom Thibodeau has leaned on his bench a bit more than usual of late, but it’s hard to imagine that being the case in a must-win contest. That could result in McBride’s playing time being slashed. He hasn’t been particularly effective to begin with, scoring just 14 points on 4-14 shooting across more than 50 minutes through the first two games.
• Cameron Payne ($1,000): Payne provided decent value in Game 1, scoring 9.75 DraftKings points in just under 10 minutes. We have him projected for six minutes in Game 3, but it wouldn’t be a shock if he’s out of the rotation entirely. If he does get on the floor, Payne is capable of racking up fantasy points quickly.
• Thomas Bryant ($1,000): How the Pacers choose to handle the backup center position will be interesting to monitor. They were forced to play Tony Bradley in Game 2 with Bryant in foul trouble, and they went back to Bradley in the second half. It’s possible that they like his size more in a matchup vs. Robinson, so he’s the big I’d lean towards in this spot. However, we have Bryant projected for those minutes in our NBA Models.
• Ben Sheppard ($1,000): Sheppard is probably the strongest min-priced option for Sunday. He logged more than 12 minutes in Game 2, and he knocked down two 3-pointers. The Pacers are +22 with Sheppard on the court in this series, so it’s possible he continues to pick up a few additional minutes.

Pictured: Obi Toppin
Photo Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images