After a 25-point victory in Game 5, the Celtics are looking to force a Game 7 with another victory tonight. They will need to do so without Jayson Tatum, who suffered an Achilles injury in Game 4. He led the Celtics in points, rebounds, assists, and steals per game in the playoffs. The Celtics are 2.5-point road underdogs to the Knicks, with this game total sitting at 211.5 points.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Without Jayson Tatum, the obvious player to target for the Celtics is Jaylen Brown. During the regular season and playoffs, Brown led the Celtics with a +3.57% usage rate with Tatum off the floor (per our Trends tool). Brown immediately jumps to the No. 1 option, which was proven in Game 5 when he posted a near triple-double with 26 points, 12 assists, and eight rebounds, accumulating 58 DraftKings points.
Brown is the second-most expensive player on the slate but leads all players in projected ceiling by a comfortable margin. He also has the highest projected usage rate and projected ownership at the captain and utility positions. It is recommended to get overweight on Brown with Tatum off the floor. A repeat performance from Game 5 will be more than enough for Brown to be the optimal captain on this slate.
Knicks’ point guard Jalen Brunson had his Game 5 cut short, fouling out for just the fifth time in his seven-year career. He recorded five fouls in the third quarter alone. Brunson managed to still score 22 points with six assists, but fouling out hurt his ceiling. Despite a difficult matchup, Brunson has played well against the Celtics throughout the regular season and in this playoff series. In his last game at home, Brunson erupted for a 39-point, 12-assist double-double for a playoff-high 66.25 DraftKings points.
Brunson is the most expensive player on the slate, but that is deserved based on how consistent he has played during the postseason. He won the NBA’s Kia Clutch Player of the Year award this season, which has been on display this playoffs with several clutch shots in big games. Brown is the preferred captain option but Brunson is not far behind. He will need to have a ceiling game to eliminate the defending champions.
Karl-Anthony Towns is having the best year of his career, which has carried over into the postseason. In his first year with the Knicks, Towns averaged 24.4 points and a career-high 12.8 rebounds per game, while shooting 52.6% from the field and 42% from downtown. He is a matchup nightmare for opposing teams with the ability to score at all three levels and dominate the glass even against the Celtics.
Towns only played 29 minutes in Game 5, which resulted in his first game without a double-double in his last seven games. In his previous four games in this matchup, Towns is averaging 19.8 points, 14 rebounds, and 39.8 DraftKings points per game. He has paid off his price in four of his last five games, but his salary has risen in this closeout game. Towns is a strong contrarian pay-up option for this showdown slate.
The last stud to mention is Celtics guard Derrick White. He is second in projected ownership at the captain and utility position behind his teammate Jaylen Brown. White is another player who will benefit with the absence of Jayson Tatum. He has a +3.24% usage rate boost with Tatum off the floor this season and scored a playoff-high 34 points in Game 5, shooting 9-for-16 from the field and 7-for-13 from deep.
White has been a steady contributor all postseason for the Celtics. He has a positive Plus/Minus in all five games against the Knicks and in nine of his last 10 playoff games. In his last three games against the Knicks, White is shooting an absurd 55.3% from the field and 53.3% from behind the arc, making 5.3 3-pointers per game. With his shooting volume increasing without Tatum, White is an elite option tonight.
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NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Leading us off in the mid-range is Josh Hart, who continues to do a little bit of everything for the Knicks. Hart can accumulate fantasy points in a variety of ways. He has already had two games in this series where he scored 23 and 24 points, but Hart can also reach double-digit rebounds and assists in any game. His consistency and heavy playing time make Hart a staple in cash games at the utility position.
$200 cheaper than Hart is another Knicks starter in Mikal Bridges. He has been a boom-or-bust fantasy option, which makes him a priority in tournaments. In this series alone, Bridges has a ceiling performance of 45.25 DraftKings points and a floor game immediately after with 19.5 DraftKings points. Bridges is one of the best two-way players in the league, so his block and steal numbers increase his ceiling production.
The last Knicks starter to target on this slate is OG Anunoby. He has been even more inconsistent than Bridges, which is why it is difficult to justify his $8,000 utility salary. In Game 1, Anunoby accumulated 42 DraftKings points but has yet to reach 30 in every other game, with a low of 5.5 DraftKings points. With an ownership projection at 5% at the utility position, it would be easy to get overweight, but tread carefully.
Celtics backup point guard Payton Pritchard played 39 minutes off the bench in Game 5 and attempted 14 3-pointers, making five. Pritchard is not afraid to let it fly and will need to be even more aggressive moving forward without Jayson Tatum and his team-high 21.9 field goal attempts per game. It wouldn’t shock me if Pritchard drew the start tonight either. Regardless, he will be aggressive and play big minutes.
Like many Celtics players in Game 5, Jrue Holiday also stepped up without Tatum on the floor. In his 33 minutes played, Holiday stuffed the stat sheet with 14 points, seven rebounds, and three assists. Pritchard is the preferred option between the two, but Holiday is drawing half of the utility ownership, making him a strong contrarian option in the mid-range. The hope would be Holiday being more aggressive offensively.
Al Horford was in foul trouble most of Game 5 but still managed to be productive, recording over 20 DraftKings points for the third-straight game. The veteran’s consistency is why Horford is drawing the fourth-most utility ownership at 45% tonight. Horford has a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last nine playoff games and is averaging 26.3 DraftKings points per game in his last three. He is a great value play.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Kristaps Porzingis ($5,000): Apparently Kristaps Porzingis “couldn’t breathe” in Game 5. He only played 12 minutes and shot 0-for-3 from the field. However, Porzingis has looked awful the entire series. Whether he is nursing an injury or a sickness, it has been a struggle, which is why he is priced in the punt play section. He will likely start, but it is difficult to get exposure to an ailing Porzingis.
- Mitchell Robinson ($4,800): Hack-a-Robinson did not work well last game, with Mitchell Robinson connecting on all six of his free-throw attempts. He added one bucket and 13 rebounds for nearly 30 DraftKings points. Priced under $5,000 and projected to play 20 minutes, Robinson is a strong value play in all formats. He has back-to-back games playing big minutes and being a great contributor.
- Luke Kornet ($4,400): By far the most popular value play for this showdown slate is Celtics backup center Luke Kornet. He was incredible in Game 5 with 10 points, nine rebounds, and seven blocks for 38.75 DraftKings points. Kornet shot a perfect 5-for-5 from the field in 26 minutes. If he is playing that well again, it will be difficult to keep Kornet off the floor. He is an elite value in all lineup builds.
- Sam Hauser ($3,200): Dumpster diving a little more, Sam Hauser is going to play around 15 minutes and will be able to pay off his salary if his perimeter shot is falling. Hauser only played four minutes up until last game with Tatum out. In his last three games that he has played 15+ minutes, Hauser has made two 3-pointers in each game. He is a perfectly fine play in a stars and scrubs lineup build.
- Miles McBride ($2,400): Knicks’ backup guard Miles McBride has played 20+ minutes in each of the last three games, with 29 minutes in Game 5. Most of his fantasy production comes from scoring the ball, but McBride is aggressive shooting from distance when given the opportunity. He is a pure punt play that will get valuable playing time. McBride will also be fairly popular in all formats tonight.
Pictured: Jaylen Brown
Photo Credit: Imagn
