The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tools and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. Toronto Raptors – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
Despite coming in fourth in salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Trae Young has the highest ceiling among point guards in our Tournament Model. Young had a disappointing first game back from the All-Star Break as he shot 3-17 from the field and only had 32.3 DraftKings points. Young finished with a double-double as he still ranks in the top five of points and assists this season.
The Hawks will still be playing without John Collins, which boosts Young’s ceiling. In eight games without Collins this season, Young is averaging 31.6 points, 10 assists and 52.7 DraftKings points per game. The Hawks are two-point home favorites in this matchup against the Raptors. Young has the highest Usage Rate per game on the slate. Look for him to stay aggressive tonight.
Top Value: Brandon Goodwin vs. Washington Wizards – $4,200 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
The Cavaliers are decimated with injuries to their backcourt. Darius Garland, Caris LeVert, and Rajon Rondo are all out tonight which will likely move Brandon Goodwin into the starting lineup. Goodwin is coming off a game where he had 30 DraftKings points in only 24 minutes. Our model has Goodwin projected for 32 minutes tonight with the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
This is a great spot to target Goodwin as the Wizards rank 23rd in Defensive Rating this season. However, this game will be very slow paced as it has by far the lowest total on the slate at 206.5 points. Taking a value option in this low total game mitigates the risk, especially given how many minutes Goodwin will play tonight. Prioritize Goodwin on DraftKings where he has a 95% Bargain Rating.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Kyrie Irving at Milwaukee Bucks – $9,900 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
It has been a while since we’ve last seen Kyrie Irving, but he is back tonight in this road matchup against the Bucks. The Nets are still playing without Kevin Durant and Ben Simmons as it will be the Irving show once again. Using our On/Off tool, Irving has a team-high 32.3% Usage Rate when he is on the floor without Durant and James Harden this season in 245 minutes.
The Nets desperately needed the All-Star Break as they had lost 12 of their last 14 games. They lost their first game after the break, but Irving was unable to play. This matchup against the Bucks is a tough one as the Nets are nearly double-digit underdogs on the road. However, this total is the second-highest on the slate as the Bucks rank sixth in Pace. Irving will be heavily involved in this spot.
Top Value: Devin Vassell at Miami Heat – $5,100 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
There may be some dead legs on the Spurs as they are coming off of a double overtime victory over the Wizards where they won 157-153. Devin Vassell started and played 42 minutes in that game despite being in foul trouble. He has had a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last six games. Vassell has averaged 14 points during that time and has double-digit field goal attempts in each game.
This matchup against the Heat presents a difficult spot as the Spurs are heavy underdogs. The Heat rank top five in Defensive Rating and bottom five in Pace this season. The Spurs are nearly the opposite playing at the fourth fastest Pace. Dejounte Murray takes up a majority of the team’s usage, but Vassell is still involved enough where he can pay off this salary on both sites.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $10,500 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
It is impossible to get away from DeMar DeRozan. It doesn’t matter who is playing and not playing for the Bulls, DeRozan is playing at such an elite level this season that he is drawing plenty of MVP discussions. DeRozan is averaging a career-high 28.3 points per game while shooting an incredible 52.1% from the field and a career-high 53.5% from behind the arc. Over his last eight games, DeRozan is averaging 38.4 points per game while never scoring below 35 points. During that time he has a 36.1% Usage Rate.
Seeing this price tag on DeRozan may come as a sticker-shock, but he has had a positive Plus/Minus in 16 of his last 17 games on FanDuel. The Grizzlies have been a pretty solid defense this season, but no one can stop DeRozan when he is playing at this level. He will be a contrarian pay-up option, but don’t forget about DeRozan when building multiple lineups tonight. His ceiling is very high.
Top Value: Cedi Osman vs. Washington Wizards – $3,900 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
Another value Cavaliers player who is popping is small forward Cedi Osman. He also benefits from the guard injuries but has been much more of a boom or bust player this season. Over the last six games, Osman is averaging 18.5 DraftKings points per game. However, during that time he has one game where he had 38 DraftKings points and two games where he scored in the single digits.
Despite Osman’s boom or bust nature, this is a great spot to target his cheap salary against the Wizards. As I mentioned above, the Wizards just gave up 157 points last night in a double overtime game. Our model has Osman projected for 26 minutes, which would be the most he has played since February 6th. He certainly isn’t the sexiest play, but Osman does provide value on this slate.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Brooklyn Nets – $11,800 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel
Giannis Antetokounmpo is second behind Young in Usage Rate per game on this slate. Before the All-Star Break, Antetokounmpo had back-to-back games where he averaged 41 points and 12.5 rebounds per game. He looks to keep that momentum going against the Nets who have nearly zero interior presence. Antetokounmpo should feast inside the paint in this matchup, but can you pay the price tag?
The decision at the top between Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic is a good one. It is nearly impossible to play both. The case to play Giannis is the high Usage Rate and that the Bucks have the highest implied total on the slate at 123 points. His minutes were also increasing as of late which is always a good sign for Antetokounmpo. It’s hard not to love Antetokounmpo in this matchup at home against the Nets.
Top Value: Serge Ibaka vs. Brooklyn Nets – $4,300 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
We are sticking with the Bucks as we go to value option Serge Ibaka. Prioritize Ibaka on FanDuel where he has an 89% Bargain Rating and is the highest projected Plus/Minus power forward on the slate. Since joining the Bucks, Ibaka is averaging 26.3 minutes per game over three games. He hasn’t done much other than score over 15 DraftKings points in each game, but the playing time is secured.
Ibaka is a cheap way to get exposure to the Bucks in this great game environment. It is unlikely that he would start again, but monitor the news in case that he does. Ibaka is projected to be one of the highest-owned players on FanDuel tonight at his ridiculous cheap salary. The upside in this play may be minimal, but he is a perfect way to fit in a stars and scrubs lineup build.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Sacramento Kings – $12,000 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
Nikola Jokic has the highest ceiling on the slate according to our model tonight. His salary has also decreased recently on DraftKings, which is always a positive sign. Jokic is behind Giannis and Young in Usage Rate, but he does lead the league with 1.83 DraftKings points per minute. He is a triple-double threat every time he takes the court, and this matchup against the Kings is fantastic.
The Nuggets just played the Kings two nights ago and won 128-110 on the road. Jokic finished with 25 points, 12 rebounds, and nine assists. This game has the highest total on the slate at 237 points as the Nuggets are eight-point home favorites. Where Jokic can really take advantage is actually scoring. The Kings allow the most points in the paint this season with 52 per game. Jokic or Giannis, take your pick.
Top Value: Daniel Gafford at Cleveland Cavaliers – $3,100 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
The best value option on FanDuel and second-best on DraftKings is Wizards center Daniel Gafford. Newly acquired center Kristaps Porzingis remains out as Gafford will draw another start. In the double overtime game last night, Gafford had 17 points as he shot 8-9 from the field in 29 minutes. He normally doesn’t play a ton of minutes, but at this cheap price tag, he doesn’t have to.
This matchup against the Cavaliers is very tough, but Gafford may be asked to play even more tonight due to the Cavaliers’ massive frontcourt. The Cavaliers rank fourth in Defensive Rating, allowing a league-best 102.6 points per game. The matchup is brutal, but if Gafford can stay out of foul, he should be arguably the best value option on the slate. He makes for a very risky fade with his upside.
