NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Jan. 25): T.J. McConnell is an elite value

Wednesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use the PrizePicks promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Trae Young has been in a bit of a cold spell recently. He’s scored 48.5 DraftKings points or fewer in eight straight games, and he’s failed return value in seven of them. However, he’s still posted a 31.5% usage rate and a 38.4% assist rate in those contests, both of which are in line with his season averages.

That gives him some buy-low appeal vs. the Thunder. His price tag is down to $9,400, and OKC has played at the fourth-fastest pace this season. The Hawks are currently implied for 119.75 points, so they have plenty of offensive upside in this matchup.

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Value

T.J. McConnell is one of those players whom DFS people love. He may not get the chance to play big minutes very often, but when he does, he typically takes advantage.

McConnell has seen a nice spike in minutes with Tyrese Haliburton out of the lineup recently, and he’s responded with at least 35.75 DraftKings points in six of his past eight games. He’s played without Andrew Nembhard in his past two, and he’s racked up 55.5 and 45.75 DraftKings points. McConnell would be a strong play even if Nembhard returns to the lineup on Tuesday, but he would be an absolute steal if he’s out once again.

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Fast Break

Markelle Fultz stands out as an elite value on DraftKings, where his $5,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. Fultz has also been an excellent fantasy producer of late, averaging 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Fultz is coming off a subpar showing in his last contest, but he did play 32 minutes in that matchup. That bodes well for his fantasy prospects moving forward.

De’Aaron Fox is worth considering on FanDuel, where his $8,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%. He’s scored at least 44.0 FanDuel points in three of his past four games, including 54.3 FanDuel points two games ago vs. the 76ers. The Raptors aren’t an ideal matchup, but the Kings’ implied team total of 121.0 points ranks fourth on the slate.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Jamal Murray has been red-hot for the Nuggets recently. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games, scoring at least 41.0 DraftKings in each. His price has crept up to $7,400 on DraftKings for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Bucks, but that still results in a Bargain Rating of 91%.

The Nuggets’ injury report will be important to monitor on this slate. Michael Porter Jr. and Bones Hyland both missed Tuesday’s contest, and their status for Wednesday is still TBD. If both players are out once again, Murray would be an elite option in a pace-up spot vs. the Bucks. He’s seen a slight boost to his assist and usage rates with both players off the floor, so he’ll have a chance to improve upon his average of 1.15 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

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Value

It’s impossible to overlook Corey Kispert at just $3,100 on DraftKings. He played 33.6 minutes in his last contest and responded with 26.25 DraftKings points, and he’s projected for a similar workload on Wednesday. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.62 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).

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Fast Break

Bruce Brown would be another potential target if Porter and Hyland are out for the Nuggets. He’s seen one of the largest bumps in value with both players off the floor this season, increasing his production to 0.86 DraftKings points per minute. Brown is a particularly strong option on DraftKings, where his $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%.

Anfernee Simons is worth some consideration on FanDuel, where his $6,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, and the Blazers are in an outstanding spot vs. the Jazz. They’re currently implied for 121.5 points, which is the third-highest mark on the slate.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Bradley Beal is officially back in the Wizards’ lineup, but his return has had little impact on Kyle Kuzma. Kuz has taken over as the team’s top offensive option, posting a 32.9% usage rate and a 25.8% assist rate over their past five games. He’s delivered plenty of fantasy value in that stretch, scoring at least 52.0 DraftKings points in three of those contests.

He draws one of the best possible matchups Wednesday vs. the Rockets. They rank 28th in defensive efficiency this season, and they’ve also played at an above-average pace. The Wizards implied team total of 117.75 represents a significant increase from their season average of 112.8 points per game, so Kuzma has a bit more upside than usual.

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Value

Part of the reason why the Wizards traded Rui Hachimura was to open up more playing time for Deni Avdija. I’m not entirely sure why they needed to trade Hachimura to make that happen – last I checked, coaches were allowed to play whomever they want – but it’s undoubtedly a positive for Avdija’s fantasy value. He racked up 32.1 minutes in his first game since the Hachimura trade and responded with 39.0 DraftKings points.

As long as Avdija is going to continue to play 30+ minutes per game, he’s way underpriced at $4,000. He’s averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s averaged 34.48 DraftKings points in 11 games with at least 30 minutes. Add in an elite matchup vs. the Rockets, and Avdija stands out as one of the best values on the slate.

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Fast Break

Keldon Johnson’s production has been volatile this season, but he remains the Spurs’ top offensive threat. He’s seen a slight bump in production recently, racking up 1.01 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he should continue to carry a slightly expanded usage rate with Devin Vassell sidelined. The matchup between the Spurs and Lakers has a total of 243.5 points, so there’s plenty of offensive upside in this contest.

Aaron Nesmith is priced at just $3,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 88%. He’s racked up at least 28.6 minutes in back-to-back games, and he stands out as one of the best per-dollar options at the position in our NBA Models.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Paolo Banchero came out of the gates red hot for the Magic this season, but the No. 1 overall pick has cooled down significantly since then. He’s failed to return value in five straight games, and he has 22.75 DraftKings points or less in two of his past three contests.

That’s caused his price tag to tumble to just $7,000 on DraftKings, making him a very appealing buy-low option in an elite matchup vs. the Pacers. Indiana ranks seventh in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, and the Magic are currently implied for 120.0 points. The only other time Banchero has been priced at $7,000 or lower was the first game of the year, and he responded with 47.75 DraftKings points.

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Value

Keegan Murray has seen a huge uptick in playing time recently. He’s averaged 37.4 minutes over his past four games, and that number would be even higher if their last game didn’t turn into a blowout. He played 33.9 minutes in a 33-point win, but he racked up at least 36.8 minutes in each of his previous three contests.

Murray has also seen an uptick in production of late, averaging 0.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Overall, he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.87 over his past 10 games, and he’s scored at least 35.25 DraftKings points in two of his past three contests. That makes him an excellent value at just $5,000.

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Fast Break

Draymond Green is another player who has played well recently. He’s increased his production to 1.01 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games. He has at least 43.75 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, and the Warriors’ implied team total of 124.25 ranks second on the slate.

Pascal Siakam leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $9,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, and no one at the position has more playing time upside.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Alperen Sengun has been a dominant per-minute fantasy producer this season, and he’s taken his game to another level recently. The Rockets are playing without Kevin Porter Jr., which has allowed Sengun to serve as one of the team’s offensive focal points. He took a backseat to Jalen Green in their last contest, but he still finished with a respectable 38.25 DraftKings points in 34.8 minutes. Prior to that, Sengun had racked up at least 54.0 DraftKings points in three straight games, so he provides a nice combination of floor and ceiling at his current price tag.

The Wizards are a nice spot for Sengun to get back to work. They’ve struggled to defend the paint this season, and opposing centers have averaged the fifth-most points per game against the Wizards.

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Value

Steven Adams is currently sidelined for the Grizzlies, and Xavier Tillman earned the start in his stead on Monday. Things didn’t go particularly well for the Grizzlies in that contest – they lost by 33 points to the Kings – but Tillman still provided plenty of fantasy value for DFS players. He racked up 25.5 DraftKings points in 29.6 minutes despite being priced at the absolute minimum.

He’s up to $3,200 for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Warriors, but Tillman would still be an excellent value play if he remains in the starting lineup. However, there’s a chance that the team could go back to Brandon Clarke in this spot, so make sure to monitor the news for updates.

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Fast Break

Nikola Jokic returned to the Nuggets’ lineup in their last game, and it was business as usual for the star big man. He racked up his fourth straight triple-double, and he posted a positive Plus/Minus for the seventh straight game on FanDuel. No one on the slate possesses more upside, and his matchup vs. the Bucks comes with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.68.

Zach Collins is another potential value option at the position on DraftKings. His $3,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute. He’s projected for 22 minutes in our NBA Models, which should be enough to pay off his current price tag.