Saturday features a two-game slate starting at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Ja Morant has been fantastic all year, but he’s things to another level in the second round vs. the Warriors. He’s scored at least 68.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, averaging 40.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, and nine assists per game. He’s also added three assists per game and posted an average usage rate of 38.8%. Overall, his average of 1.56 DraftKings points per minute over the past month trail only Giannis Antetokounmpo in our NBA Models.
Morant has gotten a bit more expensive across the industry, but he remains a nice value at just $10,300 on DraftKings. It makes him significantly cheaper than Antetokounmpo, and his Bargain Rating of 75% is the best mark for all players priced above $8,000.
De’Anthony Melton stands out as an excellent option at just $4,500 on DraftKings. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%, and he’s racked up at least 25 minutes in each of his past two games. Historically, Melton has averaged 24.6 DraftKings points in 55 games with between 23 and 27 minutes (per the Trends tool). If he’s going to continue to see that much playing time, he’s one of the best values on the slate.
Steph Curry is officially back in the Warriors’ starting lineup, but he’s struggled to get things going. He did manage nine rebounds and eight assists in his last outing, but he’s shot just 19-45 over his past two games. While those would be solid shooting numbers for most players, they’re subpar for Curry. He’s going to heat up eventually, and when he does, he has the potential to crush his current salary.
The Bucks are still without Khris Middleton, which opens up a few additional shot attempts for Jrue Holiday. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.1% in 18 games without Middleton this season, resulting in an average of 1.11 DraftKings points per minute. That gives him a bit more upside than usual, albeit in a tough matchup vs. the Celtics.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Jaylen Brown had been in a bit of a slump recently, but he broke out in his last game. He racked up 53.25 DraftKings points over 38.2 minutes in a comfortable win vs. the Bucks.
That said, I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance. He shot 11-18 from the field and 6-10 from 3-point range, both of which are unsustainable moving forward. Still, Brown has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he should see around 40 minutes on Saturday. That gives him appeal at $8,000, even with a bit of regression.
Grayson Allen is coming off a brutal showing in his last contest, but he played at least 28.3 minutes for the third time in his past four games. He should see a similar workload on Saturday, and Allen has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He doesn’t provide much of a ceiling, but he’s one of the safer plays in this price range.
Jordan Poole has come off of the bench in each of the past two games, but that hasn’t had a huge impact on his workload. He’s still racked up at least 33.7 minutes in both contests, and he dominated to the tune of 59.0 DraftKings points in Game 1. He doesn’t have quite as much upside while sharing the court with Curry, but he’s still averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That’s the top mark among Saturday’s shooting guards.
Desmond Bane has struggled mightily to start this series, finishing with just 28.4 FanDuel points through the first two games. That’s caused his salary to dip to just $5,800 on FanDuel, and he has plenty of buy-low appeal at that figure. He’s a prime candidate for some positive shooting regression after making just five of 17 shots over his past two games.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Jayson Tatum is undoubtedly one of the best players in the league, and he’s had an excellent fantasy season. He’s averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute and 46.75 DraftKings points per game, both of which are the best marks of his career.
However, it’s fair to question if he’s a bit overpriced at the moment. He doesn’t seem to possess the same kind of upside as Morant or Antetokounmpo, but he’s priced in the same ballpark. He’s scored 44.0 DraftKings points or less in three of his past five games, which simply isn’t getting it done at $10,000. Overall, he’s tough to justify as anything other than a GPP-pivot.
The Warriors have a few additional minutes up for grabs following the injury to Gary Payton II. He was one of their best perimeter defenders, so his absence is a big blow. Otto Porter Jr. is one potential replacement in the rotation. Porter has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can take advantage of a few additional minutes.
Klay Thompson is another player who is significantly underpriced on FanDuel. His $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.53 over his past 10 games. Overall, Thompson has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.86 with a comparable minute projection and salary.
Ziaire Williams played more than 28 minutes in the Grizzlies’ last game, and he responded with 23.75 DraftKings points. I doubt he sees that much playing time in Game 3, but he’s worth some consideration at essentially the minimum. His $3,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Giannis Antetokounmpo was able to overcome the Celtics’ elite defense in their first playoff matchup, but they got the best of him in Game 2. Antetokounmpo posted an elite 47.1% usage rate over 37.7 minutes, but he still managed just 51.25 DraftKings points. The Celtics have been putting the clamps on people all season, and not even Antetokounmpo is immune.
With that in mind, Antetokounmpo’s upside is a bit lower than usual in this series. That still gives him the potential to be the highest scorer on the slate, but expectations should be tempered.
Even with those concerns, Antetokounmpo is an elite option on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $11,000, which is chump change for Giannis. It results in a Bargain Rating of 89%, which is the top mark at the position.
The return of Robert Williams has done nothing to diminish the fantasy value for Al Horford. He’s racked up at least 37.5 DraftKings points in each game vs. the Bucks despite a relatively low usage rate. He’s made up for it with his work on the glass, as a distributor, and with his defense. His well-rounded skill set is why he’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season, making him a steal at just $5,900. His Bargain Rating of 96% ranks first at the position on DraftKings.
It has been a rollercoaster series for Draymond Green. He was ejected in the first game, and he needed stitches after getting elbowed above the eye in Game 2. Those factors have combined to limit Green’s fantasy value. Expect a better performance in Game 3 given his average of 1.06 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Brandon Clarke finally failed to return value in his last game, snapping a streak of eight straight games with a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel. That said, Clarke still played 27.5 minutes in that contest, so his fantasy value is still very much alive. He’s averaged 1.18 FanDuel points per minute this season, and his $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Jaren Jackson Jr. was quiet in the Grizzlies’ last game, but at least he managed to stay on the floor. He’s now tallied at least 28.6 minutes in three straight games, which is a huge development for his fantasy stock. JJJ is one of the best producers at the position on a per-minute basis, so expect a bounce-back performance with a similar workload.
The Celtics did a great job of keeping Brook Lopez at bay in their last outing. He attempted just two shots over 25.3 minutes, which limited him to just 15.0 DraftKings points. That level of aggression is virtually unheard of for Lopez. He averaged more than 10 field goal attempts in 22.9 minutes per game during the regular season, so expect him to be much more active in Game 3.
Xavier Tillman continues to draw a token start at center for the Grizzlies. That hasn’t resulted in a ton of minutes – he’s averaged 13.8 minutes in his five postseason starts – but it does give him an outside chance of returning value at just $3,100. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%, and he finished with 21.5 DraftKings points in his last game.