Wednesday features a two-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Stud
We have two potential elimination games slated for Wednesday. First, the Knicks will look to knock off the defending champs in Boston. The Celtics are clearly in rough shape without Jayson Tatum for the rest of the playoffs, but they’re still favored to pick up a win in Game 5. After that, the Timberwolves will look to close out the Warriors in Minnesota. The Timberwolves have won three straight games following the injury to Steph Curry, who will remain out for at least one more game.
Before Tatum went down in Game 4, Jalen Brunson and the Knicks had thoroughly taken control in the fourth quarter. Boston’s offense shriveled up late once again, while Brunson officially took over. He ultimately finished with 39 points, 12 assists, and five rebounds in one of the best performances of his career, resulting in 66.25 DraftKings points.
Brunson has been overshadowed from a DFS perspective for much of the playoffs, but that won’t be the case on Wednesday. There are minimal other studs to choose from, and Brunson has the fourth-highest ceiling projection in our NBA Models. That feels like a bearish projection. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his 10 postseason outings, and he’s had at least 54.25 DraftKings points in five of them. He’s too cheap at $8,900.
Value
The big question for the Celtics is where will the scoring come from on Wednesday? Payton Pritchard is one possible answer. He has been underutilized by the Celtics for most of the series, but he has been extremely efficient when on the floor. In his lone outing with more than 24.4 minutes in this series, he responded with 35.5 DraftKings points.
Pritchard has also been one of the biggest beneficiaries with Tatum out of the lineup this season. He’s seen a team-high +4.91% usage bump in his 10 games without Tatum, resulting in an average of 36.3 DraftKings points per game. He did that in an average of just 31.6 minutes, and he has the potential to play significantly more than that. Some of the Celtics’ top players have struggled mightily in this series, so Pritchard stands out as a major X-factor on this slate.
Fast Break
Derrick White is the more traditional point guard target for the Celtics, and he’s arguably the top overall play at the position. He leads all point guards in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in games without Tatum this season. He’s currently projected for 40 minutes in our NBA Models, making him an outstanding target at $7,700.
If you’re looking for a punt play, you could do worse than Mike Conley. He’s not the same player that he was in his prime, but he’s played at least 28.3 minutes in back-to-back games. He’s responded with a positive Plus/Minus in both outings, and he’s projected for another 26 minutes on Wednesday. That’s a solid figure for someone with a $3,800 price tag, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.49 (per the Trends tool).
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Despite the Timberwolves being up 3-1, the Warriors have actually done a decent job against Anthony Edwards in this series. They limited him to 23 points or fewer in their first two matchups, and he’s finished with 52.0 DraftKings points or fewer in all four games.
Still, Edwards has the top ceiling position on the slate. He’s turned things on a bit as a scorer over the past two games, finishing with 28 points in the second half of Game 3 and following that up with 30 points in Game 4. Overall, he’s averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for a whopping 42 minutes in Game 5.
Value
The Warriors are desperate for offense without Curry, especially on the perimeter. Curry’s shooting created massive spacing for the rest of his teammates, and without him, the roster has struggled to find room.
That makes Buddy Hield vital for their success. While he’s not Curry, he’s one of the few guys on the Warriors that opposing defenses actually have to worry about behind the 3-point line. He’s put together some huge performances so far during the playoffs, racking up games with 51.75, 43.0, and 32.5 DraftKings points in his past five outings.
Hield’s price tag has started to creep up, but it’s still not nearly high enough. He’s projected for 35 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Jrue Holiday has not looked like the same player during this postseason. He’s still a solid defender, but his offensive game has been minimal. For fantasy purposes, he’s averaged just 0.67 DraftKings points per minute during the playoffs. Still, with Tatum out of the lineup, everyone on the roster is going to get a bump. He’s currently projected for 36 minutes in our NBA Models, and he averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute with Tatum off the floor during the regular season. His optimal lineup rate is also roughly 5% higher than his projected ownership, making him one of the best sources of leverage at the position.
Brandin Podziemski has not shot the ball well for the Warriors recently, but the upside is at least there. He’s attempted 24 shots over his past two outings, but he’s knocked down merely four of them. He’s capable of contributing in every category across the board, so he has some potential with better shooting luck on Wednesday.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
How you approach Jaylen Brown will be the deciding factor on this slate. In the past, Brown would have been an absolute slam dunk with Tatum out of the lineup. He saw a team-high +4.01% usage bump with Tatum off the floor this season, and he averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute in that split. In seven full games without Tatum, that figure increased to 1.30. That obviously gives him massive upside at $8,200 in an elimination game where he could play 40+ minutes.
However, Brown has not looked like the same player during the postseason. His numbers are way down—he’s averaged just 1.0 DraftKings points per minute over the past month—and he’s struggling massively from an efficiency standpoint. He’s shooting just 37.7% from the field and 22.6% from 3-point range in this series, and he has more turnovers than assists.
Add in the fact that Brown is going to be the highest-owned player on this slate, and there is a reasonable case to be made for fading him. His optimal lineup rate is the second-highest on the slate, but it’s still roughly 10% lower than his projected ownership.
Value
Mikal Bridges proved his worth in Game 4. He hasn’t lived up to the massive cost that the Knicks paid to acquire him this offseason, but he delivered in their biggest game of the season. He racked up 45.25 DraftKings points across 44.2 minutes, and he delivered some huge buckets in the fourth quarter.
Bridges has now posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six outings, and he’s scored at least 36.25 DraftKings points in three of four vs. the Celtics. He’s simply too cheap at $6,200.
Fast Break
Josh Hart is another potential option for the Knicks. He’s not the same caliber of scorer as Bridges, but he’s capable of stuffing the stat sheet in every other area. He was limited to less than 30 minutes due to foul trouble in his last outing, but he’s projected to get back to 41 minutes on Wednesday. Hart is capable of averaging well over a fantasy point per minute, so he’s a solid bounce-back candidate.
Sam Hauser is an intriguing contrarian punt play for Boston. He hasn’t suited up in the past three games, but he’s probable to return to the lineup on Wednesday. The team could certainly use his scoring with Tatum sidelined, and he’s averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute with Tatum off the floor. How much he’ll actually play remains to be seen, but I’m willing to have some exposure at just 1% projected ownership. That’s tough to come by on a two-game slate.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
If Brown is the biggest question mark on this slate, Kristaps Porzingis is a close second. On paper, he’s a phenomenal option at just $6,200. He’s been the team’s most productive player with Tatum off the floor this season, averaging 1.32 DraftKings points per minute, and he could take on a much larger role in Game 5.
Of course, we have no idea if Porzingis is actually capable of that at the moment. He’s dealing with a mysterious illness that caused him to exit early in Game 1 and has severely limited him in the past three contests. He’s also been ineffective when he has been on the floor, shooting just 27.8% from the field and 20.0% from 3-point range.
We currently have Porzingis projected for 30 minutes on Wednesday, but that’s really just a guess. He could play less than that—he’s coming off a series-high 24.3 minutes in Game 4—but it could be significantly more. Ultimately, the potential reward is too great to completely ignore, but he’s another player with a very wide range of outcomes and massive projected ownership.
Value
Steve Kerr has officially “broken glass in case of emergency” with Jonathan Kuminga. Kuminga was banished from the rotation entirely at the start of the postseason, but Kerr has gone back to him with Curry out of the picture. He’s one of the few guys on the team who can consistently create offense, which the Warriors need desperately.
Kuminga put together a monster performance in Game 3, finishing with 46.5 DraftKings points in just under 36 minutes, and he had another 23 points in Game 4. He managed just 25.5 DraftKings points in that outing due to virtually zero production in the peripheral categories, but it still gives him plenty of appeal heading into Game 5. He’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should continue to produce for as long as Curry is sidelined.
Fast Break
If the Warriors are going to avoid elimination, they need Jimmy Butler to be much more aggressive in Game 5. He took just nine shots in their last outing, and he finished with just 27.0 DraftKings points in 34.4 minutes. Fortunately, there’s no reason to expect another clunker. He had at least 51.25 DraftKings points in two of his prior three outings, and he’s averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute with Curry off the floor during the playoffs.
Al Horford feels a lot like Holiday on this slate: an aging player who could be a bit undervalued. He should see a few additional opportunities with Tatum sidelined, and he’s still capable of getting the job done at this point in his career. He had 33.25 DraftKings points in Game 3, and he’s arguably the team’s top healthy big man.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
You have to feel good for Julius Randle. He was the first piece in the Knicks’ resurgence, but he was jettisoned this offseason in favor of Karl-Anthony Towns. You certainly can’t blame the Knicks for that decision, but it’s yet another reminder that the NBA is a business first and foremost.
There were some questions about how Randle would fit in Minnesota, but he has stepped up for them in the playoffs. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games, including three straight with at least 45.75 DraftKings points. He’s been instrumental in the team’s past two wins, and there’s no reason to expect much different in Game 5.
Value
Draymond Green is what he is at this point. He’s a low-ceiling, low-floor type of play. However, he has been a bit more active offensively with Curry sidelined of late, taking at least 10 shots in three of his past four games. That gives him a bit more upside than usual when combined with his assist and rebound upside. Green ranks second at the position in projected Plus/Minus, trailing only Porzingis.
Fast Break
Towns hasn’t had a ton of opportunities for the Knicks during the playoffs, but he’s taken advantage of the ones he’s gotten. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, and he dominated Boston on the interior in Game 4. He was 11-12 from inside the 3-point arc, and he had double-digit boards for the third straight game. Randle grades out as a slightly better option at this price point, but Towns does lead the position with 11 Pro Trends.
Trayce Jackson-Davis has started back-to-back games for the Warriors, and he got to 19.2 minutes in Game 4. That’s not a lot, but it’s not nothing, either. He failed to return value in that contest, but he averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season.
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Pictured: Jalen Brunson
Photo Credit: Imagn
