On the menu for Tuesday is a three-game NBA slate. Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Luka Doncic ($12,000)
Even with LeBron James (sciatica) back in the mix, Doncic has continued to put up huge numbers, scoring 64.75 DraftKings points in each of his last two starts. The guard is shooting 47% from the field this season, and Doncic’s godly role should be even larger than usual with Deandre Ayton (back) out tonight. With the center off the floor this season, Doncic’s usage rises a team-high 5.8 percentage points to an absurd 43.9%. The superstar scores an incredible 1.9 DraftKings PPM in this situation, and he is facing a Clippers’ defense tonight that ranks 25th in rating this season. Doncic should lead this slate in scoring by a solid margin, and he is worth this slate-high salary.
Value
Jalen Suggs ($6,500)
Suggs is going against a 76ers’ defense that ranks 19th in rating this season, and more importantly, Paolo Banchero (groin) will be inactive for the Magic, leaving Suggs with an expanded role. The guard has made six starts without Banchero this season, and Suggs is producing 36.1 DraftKings points in 29 minutes per game with a 26.5% usage rate in these contests, which is a 2.8 percentage point increase from his average. Suggs’ price tag is slightly too cheap for this situation, and he is a strong target for all formats.
Fast Break
Tyrese Maxey ($10,000) – With Joel Embiid (questionable, knee) trending towards playing, people are going to overlook Maxey, especially with the Magic on the other side, and Maxey is worth attacking in GPPs for this short slate. Embiid’s presence will affect Maxey’s usage, but Embiid is likely to see limited action after missing a few weeks, and Maxey should continue to be the focal point of the 76ers offense, especially with VJ Edgecombe (calf) sidelined. With the rookie off the court this season, Maxey scores 1.6 DraftKings PPM with a 33.4% usage rate.
Editor’s note: Embiid was ruled out after this article was submitted. Check the player models for updates.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Desmond Bane ($7,700)
Bane is slightly underpriced for life without Banchero. In the six starts Bane has made with Banchero inactive, Bane is generating 36.9 DraftKings PPG with a 25.8% usage rate, which is a 1.9 percentage point lift from his average. The Magic are only a 1.5-point favorite for their matchup with the 76ers, and Bane should approach 40 minutes in this likely nail-biter, giving him a ceiling over 40 DraftKings points. Paying up at shooting guard isn’t the most optimal strategy for this short slate, but Bane warrants GPP consideration, as he shouldn’t be overly popular.
Value
Anthony Black ($5,100)
Continuing with the Banchero-less Magic, Black has been great with Banchero inactive this season, scoring 25.4 DraftKings points in 28.4 minutes per game with a 21.2% usage rate in the six games the forward has missed. Black is shooting 47% from the field and averaging 2.0 defensive stats per game this season – both of which are career-highs – and he scored 23.75 DraftKings points vs. the 76ers earlier this season, even with Banchero active. With the forward missing this time around, Black is a lock for at least 25 DraftKings points.
Fast Break
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($6,500) – With Trae Young (knee) sidelined, Alexander-Walker has flashed great upside, with over 40 DraftKings points in three of his last five. Young will remain unavailable tonight, and Alexander-Walker is facing a Wizards team that ranks fourth in pace and dead last in defensive rating. The Hawks carry the highest implied team total on the slate (123 points), and Alexander-Walker is one of the best ways to gain a share of Atlanta. With Young off the court this season, Alexander-Walker is supplying 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a 25.7% usage rate.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Kawhi Leonard ($8,400)
Leonard is an elite GPP play tonight, with our projections forecasting him to be minimally owned for this short slate. The reason for the lack of interest is that it will be just Leonard’s second game back after missing 10 in a row with a knee injury, and in his first start back Sunday, the forward only scored 32.25 DraftKings points vs. the Cavaliers. That being said, this was a solid outing considering Leonard only logged 26.3 minutes. Now, the two-time NBA Finals MVP should see his workload increase, and he should receive around 30 minutes tonight, especially with the Clippers not playing again until Friday. Leonard is amassing 1.3 DraftKings PPM with a 28.9% usage rate this season, and he has gone off for over 50 DraftKings points in three of his five starts. Leonard is in an average spot, going against a Lakers’ defense that ranks 14th in rating, but him surprising tonight with a big performance isn’t out of the question.
Value
Cam Whitmore ($3,800)
Small forward is very thin for this three-game slate, and punting with Whitmore is one of the best ways to navigate the position. Tre Johnson (hip) will miss his second straight game, and with the rookie out Saturday vs. the Bulls, Whitmore posted 31.75 DraftKings points in just 17 minutes off the bench, which is the fourth time in his last seven that he has scored at least 24 DraftKings points. Whitmore has always been a high-usage player throughout his career, and with Johnson off the court this season, Whitmore is handling a 24.6% usage rate, and he is scoring 1.1 DraftKings PPM. Whitmore is facing a solid Hawks’ defense that ranks 13th in rating, but this game’s total is the highest on the slate (236.5 points), and Whitmore is a strong bet for at least 20 DraftKings points. Also, keep an eye on the status of Kyshawn George (questionable, illness), as his absence would result in an even larger role for Whitmore.
Fast Break
Franz Wagner ($8,700) – Wagner is priced appropriately and isn’t the greatest value, but chasing his ceiling in GPPs does have some merit. Wagner is leading the Magic with 40.5 DraftKings PPG and a 27.5% usage rate with Banchero inactive this season, including two efforts over 50 DraftKings points.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Jalen Johnson ($9,900)
Johnson only trails Doncic in our projections, and Johnson is the best high-end value to pursue tonight. With Young sidelined, Johnson has been the Hawks’ featured player, and he is playing at an All-Star level, providing 52.6 DraftKings PPG in his 12 starts sans Young. With the guard off the floor this season, Johnson is handling a 25.9% usage rate, a 32.8% assist rate, and a 15.9% rebound rate, resulting in a team-best 1.5 DraftKings PPM. Hosting the lowly Wizards tonight and playing behind the highest implied team total on the slate (123 points), Johnson has triple-double upside, and he should score nothing less than 50 DraftKings points.
Value
Tristan da Silva ($5,000)
Paying up for Johnson is the best strategy at power forward, but if in need of a cheaper option, da Silva makes sense. He has gone cold with less than 20 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, but da Silva continues to start in place of Banchero, and he is in a solid bounce-back spot vs. the 76ers, who rank 19th in defensive rating this season. Before these last two quiet performances, da Silva was producing 31.4 DraftKings PPG in the first four games of the season Banchero missed.
Fast Break
LeBron James ($9,000) – James is only averaging 37.1 DraftKings PPG through his first two starts of the season, but his numbers are going to improve as the season goes on, especially once he finds some rhythm with his outside shot. James is shooting just 28.6% from deep this season, but tonight’s matchup vs. the Clippers is a great spot for him to regain his three-point shooting form, with the Clippers allowing the fourth-highest three-point percentage this season (38.6%). James having his best outing of the season tonight is possible, and he should come with depressed ownership.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Ivica Zubac ($7,900)
Even with Leonard back in the Clippers’ lineup, Zubac destroyed a stout Cavaliers’ defense that ranks sixth in rating this season for 62 DraftKings points this past Sunday. The big man is averaging 37.6 DraftKings PPG while shooting 62.1% from the field this season, and Zubac could feast vs. the Lakers tonight, as they will be without Ayton. The veteran isn’t a great defender, but losing Ayton makes the Lakers thin up front, and Zubac has 40+ DraftKings point upside in this spot.
Value
Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,600)
Carter Jr. (ankle) will return tonight after missing one game, and he is a solid value play to consider vs. a soft 76ers’ defense. Carter Jr. is averaging 27.3 DraftKings points in 30 minutes per game while shooting 53% from the field and a career-best 46% from beyond the arc this season. Carter Jr. posted a double-double worth 32.5 DraftKings points in 33.6 minutes vs. Philadelphia back in October, and he has similar upside tonight.
Fast Break
Jaxson Hayes ($4,400) – Hayes should get the spot start in place of Ayton tonight, which was the case in the center’s lone absence this season. That contest was vs. the Heat earlier this month, and with the starting role, Hayes finished with 26.75 DraftKings points across 32 minutes, both of which set season highs for the veteran. Hayes could have a similar output tonight, and he will be one of the better punts for this slate if confirmed to be starting as expected.
Pictured: Jalen Johnson
Photo Credit: Imagn
