DraftKings’ main NBA DFS slate Tuesday starts at 7:00 PM EST and features the first four games of the night. Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
De’Aaron Fox ($8,300)
Fox is a must-play for this four-game slate with Victor Wembanyama (calf) and Stephon Castle (hip) sidelined. With Wembanyama inactive and Castle exiting after just 15 minutes this past Sunday vs. the Kings, Fox went off for 51.5 DraftKings points. With both Wembanyama and Castle off the floor the last two seasons, Fox is leading the Spurs with a 29.6% usage rate and a 31.2% assist rate, resulting in 1.23 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. Facing a Grizzlies team that ranks sixth in pace and 20th in defensive rating this season, San Antonio carries a 118.5-point implied team total tonight, despite both Wembanyama and Castle being out, which is a testament to how strong of a matchup this is. In this near-perfect situation, Fox has a great chance to top 50 DraftKings points.
Value
Daniss Jenkins ($6,000)
Assuming Cade Cunningham (hip) misses his fourth straight tonight, Jenkins will be a core play at only $6,000. The 24-year-old has been starting in place of Cunningham, and with this role, Jenkins is amassing 41.4 DraftKings PPG with a 24.4% usage rate. Jenkins’ matchup vs. the Hawks isn’t great, as Atlanta ranks sixth in defensive rating this season, but nonetheless, the guard is criminally underpriced for life without Cunningham, and he will have no issues exceeding five-times value if Cunningham remains out.
Fast Break
Derrick White ($7,200) – White is on a serious roll right now after a rough start to the season, and he is a worthy spend against a Nets defense that ranks dead last in rating this season. White is coming off a season-best 49.75 DraftKings point showing vs. the Clippers, and he has scored at least 35 DraftKings points in seven consecutive games.
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Desmond Bane ($7,300)
With Paolo Banchero (groin) missing his third consecutive game tonight, Bane is a strong target at this price point, regardless of facing a Warriors defense that ranks seventh in rating this season. With Banchero inactive Sunday vs. the Rockets, Bane finished with 40.5 DraftKings points. With Banchero off the floor this season, Bane’s usage rises 2.3 percentage points to 25.5%, and he produces 1.0 DraftKings PPM. In our NBA models, Bane has the highest projection among shooting guards by nearly 10 points.
Value
Julian Champagnie ($4,700)
Champagnie should start with both Wembanyama and Castle out tonight, making him the top shooting guard value in our projections. With both Wembayana and Castle off the court the last two seasons, Champagnie is generating 0.9 DraftKings PPM with a a solid 18.9% usage rate. With the struggling and fast-paced Grizzlies in town, Champagnie should score at least 25 DraftKings points.
Fast Break
Payton Pritchard ($6,300) – Just like White, Pritchard is finally starting to find his rhythm after a rocky start to the season, and the guard has big upside against the Nets, who are not just the league’s worst defense, but they are also allowing the third-highest three-point percentage this season (39.2%). Pritchard has topped 40 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he has shot 13-of-23 on three-pointers in these starts (57%).
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Michael Porter Jr. ($7,600)
Porter Jr. has been brilliant in his last two starts, scoring 53.25 DraftKings points vs. the Magic and 56.2 DraftKings points vs. the Wizards. The forward flirted with a triple-double in both these starts, and the main reason for his success has been Cam Thomas (hamstring) being sidelined, which will be the case again tonight vs. the Celtics. With Thomas off the floor this season, Porter Jr.’s usage increases 2.2 percentage points to 31.7%, and he scores 1.23 DraftKings PPM, both of which are team highs for this situation. Boston isn’t an ideal spot, as the team ranks dead last in pace this season, but Porter Jr.’s mammoth role-out trumps the matchup concerns, and his ceiling is the highest on the slate among all players in our projections.
Value
Vince Williams ($4,000)
Williams should start at point guard tonight with Ja Morant (calf), and being able to roster Williams as a forward is very valuable for this short slate. In the two games Morant has missed this season, Williams is averaging 24.25 DraftKings points in 22.7 minutes per game with a 21.8% usage rate. The veteran is facing a Spurs team that will be without Wembanyama, and this game’s total is the highest on the slate (233.5 points). San Antonio’s defensive rating has been 10.8 points worse with Wembanyama off the floor this season, and Williams should destroy his cheap salary in this spot. In our projections, Williams is the No. 1 value on the slate.
Fast Break
Keldon Johnson ($5,200) – Johnson should get overlooked as a bench player, and he is a great GPP play with both Wembanyama and Castle missing for this beautiful home matchup vs. the Grizzlies. Johnson has notoriously been a more productive player at home throughout his career, and with both Wembanyama and Castle off the court the last two seasons, Johnson is supplying 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a 25.2% usage rate, which is a 4.1 percentage point lift from his average.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Jalen Johnson ($9,500)
Trae Young (hamstring) will remain out tonight, and with him sidelined for the last nine, the Hawks are 7-2, and Johnson has been the primary reason for the team’s impressive play. During this stretch, the forward is leading Atlanta with 51.8 DraftKings PPG, a 25% usage rate, and a 32% assist rate. Johnson has nearly had a triple-double in many of these games, and while he is facing a Pistons defense that ranks third in rating tonight, this Detroit club is playing its second game in two nights. This game presents a healthy 230.5-point total, and the Pistons are only favored by 1.5 points. Johnson has 50 DraftKings points upside in this spot, and he is a player you must have some shares of.
Value
Santi Aldama ($5,500)
Aldama has exceeded 30 DraftKings points in four games in a row, including a 34 DraftKings point effort vs. the Celtics, which was a game that Morant was inactive for. As previously mentioned, the guard will be out again tonight, and Aldama should see an increased role with Morant out, making him an attractive option from this slate-high total between the Grizzlies and Spurs. Aldama has played 24 games without Morant the last two seasons, and Aldama is amassing 30 DraftKings PPG with a 20% usage rate in these contests.
Fast Break
Tristan Da Silva ($5,000) – Da Silva is a standout value play with Banchero sidelined. In these past two without the Duke product, Da Silva has started in place of Banchero and has produced 35.1 DraftKings points in 36.2 minutes per game. Da Silva is shooting 48% from the field and 40% from beyond the arc this season, and over 30 DraftKings points for the third straight game is a strong possibility for the wing, despite facing a stout Warriors defense.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Jalen Duren ($8,000)
Duren returned from a two-game absence due to an ankle injury last night, and he showed no signs of rust, dominating the Pacers for a double-double of 55.25 DraftKings points. Duren has scored over 50 DraftKings points in five of his last seven starts, and the big man is handling career highs in usage (23.1%) and rebound rate (22.5%) this season. Duren is generating an elite 1.5 DraftKings PPM with this larger role, and while he is facing a strong Hawks defense tonight, this $8,000 salary is simply too low for the center right now.
Value
Neemias Queta ($5,200)
Queta is averaging 26.1 DraftKings points in 25 minutes per game as the Celtics’ starting center this season, and he is improving as the season progresses, with back-to-back efforts over 30 DraftKings points entering tonight. Queta is shooting 61% from the field, and he leads Boston in plus/minus this season, so his role isn’t going anywhere. In an elite spot vs. the Nets tonight, Queta could be in store for a season-best outing, and he is a terrific option for all formats at only $5,200. Brooklyn’s league-worst defense is allowing the most points in the paint per game this season (56.0), and as a natural center, 87% of Queta’s points have come in the painted area this season.
Fast Break
Onyeka Okongwu ($7,200) – Kristaps Porzingis (knee) is questionable tonight, and if the big man sits, Okongwu will start and be an appealing option. In the five starts he has made for Porzingis this season, Okongwu is averaging 43.8 DraftKings points in 34.4 minutes per game.
Luke Kornet ($5,400) – Kornet will start at center in place of Wembanyama tonight, and this price tag is just too low for that role, especially with a weak Grizzlies defense on the other side. Getting the spot start in place of Wembanyama this past Sunday vs. the Kings, Kornet delivered a double-double of 34.75 DraftKings points in 27 minutes of work.
Pictured: De’Aaron Fox
Photo Credit: Imagn
