Tuesday night presents a five-game main NBA slate on DraftKings that begins at 7:00 PM EST. Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Luka Doncic ($12,200)
Doncic is fresh off a 61.75 DraftKings point outing vs. the Grizzlies, and now, he gets to face the Pelicans, who rank 27th in defensive rating this season. The Lakers’ implied team total is the highest on the slate in this spot (124 points), and Austin Reaves (calf) and Rui Hachimura (calf) will both remain sidelined for Los Angeles. With these two starters off the floor this season, Doncic scores 1.6 DraftKings PPM, thanks to a huge 40.1% usage rate, which is a 1.9 percentage point lift from his average, via the On/Off Tool. Doncic’s ceiling is the highest on the slate in our projections by nearly 20 points, and having some exposure to the superstar is a must tonight.
Value
Craig Porter ($3,600)
Porter is generating 21 DraftKings PPG in his last four, despite the Cavaliers being mostly healthy. Now, Donovan Mitchell will be rested tonight, creating a huge void for Cleveland, and Porter should be one of the main beneficiaries. The guard should approach 25 minutes off the bench vs. a Pacers team that ranks 21st in defensive rating, making Porter a sensational punt play. Porter is scoring 1.1 DraftKings PPM with Mitchell off the floor this season, and Porter is rated as the top point guard value on the slate in our projections.
Fast Break
Darius Garland ($7,200) – Garland is one of the top options on the slate with Mitchell sidelined. Garland’s usage and assist rates increase 5.8 and 7.4 percentage points, respectively, with Mitchell off the floor this season, resulting in 1.1 DraftKings PPM, and in the one start Garland has made with Mitchell inactive this season, Garland went off for 52.5 DraftKings points vs. the Bulls.
Andrew Nembhard ($6,800) – Opposite of Garland, Nembhard has a ton of merit tonight. The Cavaliers rank seventh in pace this season, and Bennedict Mathurin (thumb) will be out for the Pacers. In the six games Nembhard has played without Mathurin this season, Nembhard is amassing 36 DraftKings PPG with a 27% usage rate.
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Anthony Edwards ($9,500)
Edwards just torched the Wizards for 56 DraftKings points Sunday, and in his start before this, he scored 46.2 DraftKings vs. the Heat, whom he will be facing again tonight. Miami leads the league in pace, compared to the Timberwolves, who rank 17th. Minnesota’s implied team total is the second-highest on the slate (122.5 points), and Edward is a strong GPP play in this spot who has a ceiling over 50 DraftKings points.
Value
Marcus Smart ($4,600)
With Reaves and Hachimura out for the last two, Smart has had two very different performances, scoring 37 and 14.25 DraftKings points. However, what has remained consistent has been his role, as Smart has started in both of these games and logged at least 31 minutes. Smart is scoring 0.7 DraftKings PPM this season, and he should continue to see over 30 minutes tonight with both Reaves and Hachimura still unavailable. Plus, Smart gets an excellent matchup vs. the Pelicans, who rank 27th in defensive rating, and the Lakers carry the highest implied team total on the slate in this spot (124 points). Smart exceeding 5x value in this situation is very possible, and he could get overlooked after disappointing his last time out.
Fast Break
Trey Murphy ($7,000) – Murphy is going against a Lakers defense that ranks 26th in rating this season, and Saddiq Bey (hip) is out for the Pelicans, leaving Murphy with a larger role than usual. With Bey inactive this past Sunday vs. the Heat, Murphy scored 51 DraftKings points.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Desmond Bane ($7,900)
While priced appropriately, Bane warrants GPP consideration tonight. The guard is in an elite spot vs. the Wizards, who rank eighth in pace and 29th in defensive rating. Additionally, the Magic will be without Franz Wagner (ankle) and Jalen Suggs (knee). Bane scored 54 DraftKings points vs. the Pacers this past Sunday with both Wagner and Suggs out, and with them both off the court this season, Bane is scoring 1.1 DraftKings PPM behind a 27.2% usage rate, which is a 2.9 percentage point upgrade from his average. In the eight starts he has made without both Wagner and Suggs this season, Bane is averaging 38.1 DraftKings PPG.
Value
Jake LaRavia ($5,500)
LaRavia has been outstanding with Reaves and Hachimura sidelined for the last two, scoring 42.25 DraftKings points in both of these games, both of which came against the Grizzlies. During this stretch, LaRavia is logging 35.8 minutes per game, and he is handling a 19.9% usage rate. LaRavia is producing 0.9 DraftKings PPM with both Reaves and Hachimura off the floor this season, and he should beat this $5,500 salary with ease tonight vs. the Pelicans’ soft defense.
Fast Break
Aaron Nesmith ($5,300) – Nesmith makes sense for GPPs tonight with Mathurin unavailable. Despite facing a Magic defense that ranks 11th in rating this past Sunday, Nesmith went off for 46.5 DraftKings points with Mathurin sidelined. Nesmith has played 10 games sans Mathurin this season, and Nesmith is averaging 29.5 DraftKings PPG with a 22.9% usage rate in those contests.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Paolo Banchero ($9,200)
After some poor play by his standards, Banchero has been a beast recently, posting at least 53 DraftKings points in four consecutive games. The Duke product is in prime position to continue this run tonight, going against the Wizards, who rank eighth in pace and 29th in defensive rating, and with both Wagner and Suggs sidelined. Banchero’s usage rises 1.5 percentage points to 29.3% with both Wagner and Suggs off the floor this season, and Banchero’s ceiling is the second-highest on the slate in our projections, trailing only Doncic.
Value
Micah Potter ($4,100)
Potter has started at center for the Pacers in each of their last two games, and being able to roster him at forward tonight is very valuable for this five-game slate, assuming he remains a starter. With the starting role, Potter has been efficient, scoring 29.5 DraftKings points vs. the Spurs and 30 DraftKings points vs. the Magic, both of which are top-12 defenses this season. Potter is logging 28.3 minutes per game, and he is shooting 54% from the field as a starter in these past two, and facing the Cavaliers tonight, Potter is rated as the No. 1 value on the slate in our projections.
Fast Break
LeBron James ($9,000) – James has looked like his old self with Reaves and Hachimura out for the last two, and he is very underpriced for his upside with those two players remaining sidelined tonight vs. the Pelicans. In these last two, he has scored 49.75 and 53.75 DraftKings points.
De’Andre Hunter ($4,900) – Hunter is a viable option vs. the Pacers with Mitchell missing. In the three games Hunter has played without Mitchell this season, Hunter has amassed 28.3 DraftKings points in 29 minutes per game with a 25% usage rate.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Evan Mobley ($7,600)
There are a bunch of strong plays from the Cavaliers tonight with Mitchell being rested, and Mobley is arguably the best. With Mitchell off the floor this season, Mobley is scoring 1.4 DraftKings PPM, which is a product of his usage and assist rates rising 9.4 and 9.6 percentage points, respectively, both of which are team-high increases for this situation. Mobley exposed the Raptors for 51 DraftKings points in his lone start with Mitchell inactive this season, and Mobley has even better upside tonight with the Pacers on the other side. Cleveland carries a 119.5-point implied team total despite Mitchell’s absence, and Mobley warranted a salary near $9,000 for this situation. In our projections, the big man is rated as a top-five value on the slate.
Value
Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,500)
While both Bane and Bachero see notable boosts with Wagner and Suggs sidelined, Carter Jr. is the primary beneficiary in this situation for the Magic. The center has made eight starts without Wagner and Suggs this season, and in those tilts, Carter Jr. is averaging 31.9 DraftKings points in 31.8 minutes per game, including a 44.5 DraftKings point outing vs. the Pacers this past Sunday. With both Wagner and Suggs off the floor this season, Carter Jr.’s usage and assist rates increase 1.9 and 2.3 percentage points, respectively, translating into 1.0 DraftKings PPM for the big man. After dominating the Pacers on Sunday, Carter is in an even better spot tonight vs. the Wizards, who not only rank eighth in pace and 29th in defensive rating, but also allow the sixth-most points in the paint this season. Carter Jr. should stay hot in this spot, and he is a no-brainer at only $5,500.
Fast Break
Victor Wembanyama ($9,900) – Wembanyama (knee) is questionable tonight and likely to be limited if he plays, but even with a decreased role, the budding superstar has the potential to outproduce this sub-$10,000 salary vs. the Grizzlies, and he could get overlooked coming off the injury. Before missing the last two, Wembanyama had topped 50 DraftKings in three straight, despite seeing 27 minutes or less in all of those games. This season, the big man is handling a 32.5% usage rate and scoring 1.7 DraftKings PPM, which ranks second only to Nikola Jokic.
Jock Landale ($5,000) – If Landale continues to start tonight vs. the Spurs, the veteran will be a viable option. Landale moved into the Grizzlies’ starting five this past Sunday vs. the Lakers and finished with a 32 DraftKings point double-double across 28.4 minutes.
Pictured: Luka Doncic
Photo Credit: Imagn
