Tuesday night presents a four-game slate that begins at 8:00 PM EST. Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
James Harden ($9,100)
The Clippers have finally found their groove and have won four games in a row. During this win streak, Harden has been great, scoring 45.6 DraftKings PPG, and he should continue to thrive tonight vs. the Kings. Sacramento ranks 27th in defensive rating this season, and more importantly, Ivica Zubac (ankle) will remain sidelined for Los Angeles. With the center off the floor this season, Harden’s usage rises 4.1 percentage points to 35.3%, and he scores 1.32 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. Harden is underpriced for life without Zubac, and he is rated as a top-five value on the slate in our projections.
Value
Isaiah Collier ($4,300)
Collier has produced at least 21 DraftKings points in six of his last seven, and the guard sees a boost tonight with Ace Bailey (hip) sidelined. Collier should garner 25-30 minutes with Bailey missing, giving him a great chance to outproduce this salary vs. the Celtics, as Collier is amassing 1.0 DraftKings PPM this season. Keyonte George (illness) is also questionable, and if he sits, Collier would likely start in his place and become a very tough fade for this short slate.
Fast Break
Cade Cunningham ($10,500) – Cunningham has been dominant with at least 57 DraftKings points in six of his last seven, and he has huge upside tonight vs. the Lakers, who rank 23rd in defensive rating. This season, Cunningham is scoring 1.4 DraftKings PPM with a 31% usage rate.
Walter Clayton ($3,400) – Clayton is coming off a 30 DraftKings point showing in just 22 minutes vs. the Spurs and the Florida product would have a ton of merit as a punt play if George were out for the Jazz. Clayton would be guaranteed over 20 minutes in that situation, and he is generating 0.91 DraftKings PPM this season.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Derrick White ($7,400)
With Jayson Tatum (Achilles) sidelined, White is having a career season, averaging 37.3 DraftKings PPM with a 23.7% usage rate, which ranks second only to Jaylen Brown for the Celtics. Facing a Jazz team that ranks fourth in pace and second-to-last in defensive rating this season, Boston carries the highest implied team total on the slate (123.5 points), and White is a strong value in this elite spot. For the four occasions he has played behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season, White is supplying 47.6 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Value
Duncan Robinson ($4,300)
If not looking to pay up for White, Robinson is a great pay-down option at shooting guard tonight. Caris LeVert (knee) is doubtful, and in the six games the veteran has missed this season, Robinson is scoring 23.6 DraftKings points in 32.4 minutes per game. 73% of the sharpshooter’s points have come via three-pointers this season, and tonight’s matchup vs. the Lakers suits Robinson’s game, as Los Angeles is allowing its opponents to hit three-pointers at the second-highest rate this season (38.1%).
Fast Break
Jaden Ivey ($3,900) – Robinson is the better target, but Ivey is also viable from the Pistons with LeVert doubtful. Ivey has scored over 20 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he got up to a season-high 28.4 minutes this past Sunday. Ivey is amassing 1.0 DraftKings PPM this season; a similar workload is possible for him tonight.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Kawhi Leonard ($9,500)
Just like Harden, Leonard is playing excellent basketball right now, and he is too cheap with Zubac sidelined. Leonard has scored 63.5, 59.5, 54, and 90.25 DraftKings points during this current four-game winning streak for the Clippers, and Zubac notably missed the latter two of this stretch. With the big man off the floor this season, Leonard’s usage rises 4.5 percentage points to a team-high 36.5%, and he scores 1.6 DraftKings PPM. Leonard isn’t going to erupt for 90 DraftKings points again, but over 50 DraftKings points is very possible for the two-time NBA Finals MVP vs. the Kings’ soft defense.
Value
Brice Sensabaugh ($4,400)
Sensabaugh moved into the Jazz’s starting lineup with Bailey inactive this past Saturday vs. the Spurs, and Sensabaugh finished with 21 DraftKings points in a season-high 33.4 minutes. The forward has topped 20 DraftKings points in four of his last six, and Sensabaugh should approach 35 minutes again tonight vs. the Celtics. This matchup isn’t great, as Boston ranks dead last in pace, but Sensabaugh should be able to grind out over 20 DraftKings points.
Fast Break
Jaylen Brown ($9,400) – Leonard is the stronger stud at small forward, but Brown isn’t far behind, and rostering both wings tonight is viable. Brown has scored at least 30 points in nine straight games, tying Larry Bird for the Celtics’ all-time record. Brown is averaging 49 DraftKings PPG with a 36.5% usage rate during this impressive run, and he absolutely will be extremely motivated to surpass Bird tonight vs. the defensively inept Jazz.
Hugo Gonzalez ($4,200) – Sticking with the Celtics, Gonzalez has been awesome, with at least 25 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. Gonzalez ranks third for Boston in plus/minus this season, and he should continue to see solid volume off the bench tonight. The rookie is scoring 0.8 DraftKings PPM this season, and he is only slated for around 2% ownership according to our projections.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,700)
Jackson Jr. has benefited from Ja Morant (ankle) being back in the lineup for the last two, posting 48.75 DraftKings points vs. the Bucks and 52 DraftKings points vs. the Wizards. Jackson Jr. is handling a 32.9% usage rate in these games, and he should continue to be the focal point of the Grizzlies’ offense tonight, as Morant continues to work his way back. While Jackson Jr. is facing a 76ers’ defense that ranks 13th in rating this season, the forward’s form is outstanding, and he is worth attacking in GPPs tonight.
Value
Tobias Harris ($5,200)
Paying down at power forward is the most optimal strategy for this small slate, and Harris is the best value at his position. On top of facing a soft Lakers’ defense, Harris will benefit with LeVert being doubtful. In the six games the wing has missed this season, Harris is producing 27.3 DraftKings points in 30 minutes per game with an 18.6% usage rate.
Fast Break
Paul George ($6,900) – George has been up-and-down, but he has shown some upside recently with at least 38 DraftKings points in four of his last six games, and if Joel Embiid (knee, questionable) sits, George will warrant consideration for GPPs. With Embiid off the floor this season, George generates 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a 26.1% usage rate, which is a 1.7 percentage point lift from his average.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Jalen Duren ($7,500)
Duren has tallied a double-double of over 40 DraftKings points in three of his past four, and he is scoring 1.3 DraftKings PPM this season, thanks to a career-high 22.3% usage rate. Duren ranks fifth in the NBA in double-doubles (18), and while not the greatest value, the center has 40 DraftKings point upside and is expected to come with single-digit ownership according to our projections, making Duren a worthy contrarian play for this short slate.
Value
Brook Lopez ($5,000)
Lopez is Zubac’s replacement starter for the Clippers and the best value at the center position tonight. With Zubac inactive for the past two, Lopez has posted 46.75 DraftKings points vs. the Trail Blazers and 24.25 DraftKings points vs. the Pistons. The veteran has seen at least 33 minutes in both of these starts, and going against a Kings’ defense that ranks 27th in rating tonight, Lopez should effortlessly outproduce his $5,000 salary. This season, the center is scoring 0.8 DraftKings PPM.
Fast Break
Luka Garza ($4,000) – Garza struggled with foul trouble his last time out, but before this, the veteran was averaging 25.9 DraftKings points in 25.3 minutes per game in his previous three, as he operates as the Celtics’ backup center. Garza is amassing 1.0 DraftKings PPM while shooting 57.8% from the field this season, and with a terrible Jazz defense on the other side, he should be able to top 20 DraftKings points.
Pictured: James Harden
Photo Credit: Imagn
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