Thursday’s NBA slate is stuffed with eight games across the country, with DFS fantasy basketball contests tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET. Seven of the 16 teams are playing for the second night in a row as the Hawks, Hornets, Bulls, Mavericks, Rockets, Heat and Timberwolves all finish their mid-week back-to-back games with games on Thursday night. While the injury reports and players resting will surely change some things before tip-off, there are already some players who are standing out as strong options to be the core of your fantasy basketball roster. Be sure to check back for updates to our models as injury updates come out throughout the day, but let’s run down the top options to play, based on what we know coming into the day.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Without Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr., Ryan Rollins has been carrying the offensive workload for the Bucks. While he isn’t the most expensive play on the board with a salary under $8,000, he has a very high ceiling in a smash spot this Thursday and can be a strong option to build around.
He and the Bucks are in a great matchup against the Wizards, who have been an optimal team to attack all season, especially for point guards, who average more fantasy points per game against the Wizards than any other team in the NBA.
Rollins has scored over 20 points in each of the Bucks’ last two games while adding good non-scoring stats as well to produce 35 and 45 DraftKings points. In his seven games this season with both Giannis and KPJ off the floor, he is averaging 45.6 DraftKings points per game with a team-high 29.3% usage rate.
Rollins has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards, and in such a great matchup, he’s a good option to build around without soaking up a ton of your salary cap space.
Value
The second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on Thursday comes from rookie Ben Saraf of the Nets, who will need to step up in a big way for his team since Egor Demin, Cam Thomas and Ziaire Williams are all out. Saraf will share time in the backcourt with Tyrese Martin and Noah Traore, but of the three, he has the best Plus/Minus projection.
After spending much of December and January with the G League’s Long Island Nets, Saraf has returned and played just under 20 minutes in each of his last two games, producing 6.0 and 10.2 DraftKings points. Saraf was a late first-round pick and is still just 19, so there is still a lot of growth that needs to happen before he’s ready for a full-time role on a regular basis.
However, the pass-first point guard should get plenty of run this Thursday night in Denver. He won’t have to do much to return good value at his salary, just over the minimum, and if he gets the start, he will be a strong value option to consider if you’re stacking the rest of your lineup with studs.
Fast Break
Tyrese Maxey has the best value projections among the high-priced point guards as he leads the Sixers into a great matchup at home against the Kings. He has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position and has a higher Plus/Minus projection than any other point guard over $8,000. Maxey has been getting more help from Joel Embiid and Paul George lately, and both are probable for this matchup, but Maxey still brings enough upside to consider in this smash spot where his Sixers have the highest implied team total on the slate, according to our Vegas Dashboard.
Wizards’ rookie guard Tre Johnson has a top-five Plus/Minus projection at both point guard and shooting guard as he takes on Rollins and the Bucks. Johnson has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games and seven of his last 10. He had 26 points and 37 DraftKings points against the Hornets last Saturday and followed that with 29.5 DraftKings points against the Blazers on Tuesday. The rest of the rotation has shifted around lately, but the team seems wisely dedicated to getting more work for the 19-year-old who was the No. 6 overall pick in the draft and has emerged as one of the best scorers in the rookie class.
The Suns won’t have Devin Booker for their game against the Pistons, and Collin Gillespie is questionable after missing Tuesday’s game as well. In the absence of those two guards, plenty of usage was available for Jordan Goodwin (more below) and bargain play Jamaree Bouyea, who had 10 points and 18.2 DraftKings points in 24 minutes against the Nets. Bouyea missed multiple games this month with a concussion, but he has flashed upside when available, scoring double-digit points in five of his last eight games with more than 10 minutes of playing time. He’s only $3,600, so especially if Gillespie is out again, he should be able to find enough work to return bargain value on Thursday.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Rockets and Hawks are both playing on the second night of back-to-backs, but unless the injury report has some big surprises, Kevin Durant should be an excellent option to build around. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections among shooting guards as well as a positive Plus/Minus projection. He is an even stronger play if you’re using the ShotQuality projections, which give him a top-five Plus/Minus projection at the position as well.
Durant had 24 points, six assists, and 37 DraftKings points in Wednesday’s loss to the Spurs, but he had posted 30+ points and at least 49 DraftKings points in three straight games before that against the Grizzlies, Pistons and Sixers.
Even though Thursday’s game is on the road in Atlanta, it should be a good spot for Durant to bounce back since the Hawks have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to shooting guards this season.
KD always brings an immensely high ceiling, but he has also been consistent enough to confidently build around in almost any matchup. His flexibility with both guard and forward eligibility also helps him fit into multiple roster constructions.
Value
The Wizards have been getting great production from Kyshawn George, who has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all shooting guards. He’s in a good spot against the Bucks, and the 22-year-old has really stepped up in his second year in the league.
George is averaging 15.6 points, 5.9 rebounds and 5.1 assists for 34.4 fantasy points per game on the season, with a production rate of 1.11 DraftKings points per minute. He has been much better lately, though, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven straight games while increasing his production rate to 1.20 DraftKings points per minute. Overall, he’s averaged 37.4 DraftKings points per game on 19.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 1.7 steals per contest during that stretch.
When he’s at his best, George can fill up the box score and bring elite production for the Wizards, even though the rest of the rotation around him, Johnson, and Alexandre Sarr is still very much a work in progress.
Fast Break
Aside from Durant, Anthony Edwards is the other elite option at shooting guard and brings the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position. He has a huge matchup at home against the Thunder and has at least 45 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. The matchup will be a tough one, but Edwards usually rises to the challenge. It is the second night of a back-to-back for him, so watch the injury report.
In what could be a fun rookie matchup, Kon Knueppel and Cooper Flagg could go head-to-head if Flagg can return after missing Thursday’s game. For fantasy, Knueppel is a better option at his more affordable salary under $7,000, and he has been very solid as a mid-range play to build around. He has at least 34 DraftKings points in five of his last eight games and typically is a consistent producer across multiple categories.
Nets guard/forward Terance Mann has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard and small forward in both sets of projections. He’ll have to step in and carry a much bigger workload for the Nets as long as he plays through his questionable tag due to back soreness. If he’s out, there will be even more work for the guards mentioned above, specifically Saraf and Martin.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
While it’s not quite Luka Doncic going back to Dallas, Michael Porter Jr. will be playing in Denver on Thursday night for the first time since the Nuggets traded him to Brooklyn. With the Nets on the front end of the back-to-back and missing so many other pieces, MPJ should get all the usage he can handle in a potential revenge game.
Porter has put up excellent numbers this year for the struggling Nets, averaging 42.4 DraftKings points per game in his 37 games. He is coming off a monster game against the Suns on Tuesday, when he had 36 points, five rebounds, three assists and three steals for 54.2 DraftKings points, and he also had 49 DraftKings points in another ceiling game against Boston last Friday.
Porter has the potential to get to 50 DraftKings points again on Thursday if he gets his typical minutes. He has the second-highest median, ceiling and floor projections at the position, behind only Durant.
Value
With the Suns short-handed, Grayson Allen has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all small forwards. He has a very high ceiling, even in a tough home matchup against the Pistons, since he should be ready to carry a large workload with Booker and potentially Gillespie sidelined.
Allen has over 15 points in four straight games and at least 30 DraftKings points in seven of his last eight. His best game during that run actually came against Detroit when Booker missed the first game of this series on Jan. 15. Allen stepped up with 33 points in 31 minutes and racked up 47.75 DraftKings points in that contest while taking 20 three-point attempts.
He seems to be set up for another big workload on Thursday, although he seems to have a higher scoring ceiling if Gillispie is available to run the point. He had more assists without Gillespie on Tuesday, but actually took fewer shots. Either way, though, he definitely should be on your radar along with Jordan Goodwin, who played 29 minutes on Tuesday and finished with 20.2 DraftKings points. Goodwin is more of a point guard than Allen, but both wings will get more work in the backcourt if Gillespie is out.
Fast Break
With Nikola Jokic, Cam Johnson, and Aaron Gordon all out, Peyton Watson could be very busy for the Nuggets’ offense on Thursday night against the Nets, where he should be able to post a huge number. Watson had 26.2 DraftKings points on Tuesday in his return from spraining both ankles. Before that, though, he was rolling with six games of over 42 DraftKings points in his previous 10.
Kyle Kuzma will also be taking on the team that traded him as he faces the Wizards, and he has stepped up and exceeded salary-based expectations with 34 and 43 DraftKings points in his last two games. More usage should be available for him with Giannis and KPJ out, so Kuzma could be one of the best values on the board in this favorable matchup against the Wizards.
Josh Okogie is a bargain play to watch at small forward. With Tari Eason expected to sit out the second night of the back-to-back, Okogie could move into the starting lineup or at least be one of the top options off the bench for the Rockets in what should be a great matchup in Atlanta, especially for forwards.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
With Steven Adams out for the season, Alperen Sengun will play more center the rest of the way for Houston instead of sliding to power forward in the oversized Houston rotations. He’s still power forward eligible at this point on DraftKings, though, and he has the second-highest median, ceiling and floor projections at the position with a much better Plus/Minus projection than Jalen Johnson, who seems overpriced on the other side of the Rockets-Hawks matchup.
Sengun had a double-double with seven assists to rack up 46.5 DraftKings points in 36 minutes in the Rockets’ loss to the Spurs on Wednesday, and he has at least 43 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games, averaging 46.1 DraftKings points per game over that span.
While his non-scoring numbers can be a little inconsistent at times, his overall production is typically excellent, and he should thrive in this matchup against the Hawks. If you’re spending up for a stud power forward, Sengun brings both a high ceiling and good consistency to consider.
Value
Nets power forward/center Danny Wolf has the highest Plus/Minus projection of any player at any position on the entire slate in both the FantasyLabs and the ShotQuality projections. Wolf will have a lot of work available with Williams and Noah Clowney both ruled out.
The rookie from Michigan has played 31 games for the Nets, averaging 17.8 DraftKings points in 19 minutes per game. However, he has shown the ability to step up when given a larger role, like he’s projected to get on Thursday.
He played 26 minutes last Sunday against the Clippers and had 33.2 DraftKings points on 14 points, seven rebounds, four assists, a block and a steal. He played 25 minutes earlier this month against the Bulls and had 14 points and 22.75 DraftKings points in that matchup, and he also hit double-digit points the previous game, which was also against the Bulls, when he totaled 29.5 DraftKings points.
When the minutes have come his way, Wolf seems to find a way to make a difference, both for the Nets’ rotation and for his fantasy managers. At a salary of only $4,200, he should be a great piece to include in multiple builds on Thursday night with good upside and the versatility to fill the center spot if that construction works better with the rest of your roster.
Fast Break
Timberwolves forward Julius Randle had 31 points and 44.75 DraftKings points against the Mavs on Wednesday, and he has over 40 DraftKings points in five of his last eight. The matchup against OKC won’t be an easy one, but he and Edwards will look to pick up a statement win over the short-handed Thunder in one of the best matchups of the night. He isn’t quite as reliable as the other elite forwards, but he does have a very high ceiling.
While Kuzma gets the added revenge narrative, Bobby Portis has been a little more involved in the Bucks’ offense since the loss of Giannis and brings the fourth-highest ceiling and second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward in the ShotQuality projections. Portis had 46.5 DraftKings points on Tuesday against the 76ers, and he brings huge upside to this smash spot against the Wizards.
Aside from Wolf, Justin Champagnie and Ronald Holland II have the two best Projected Plus/Minus for power forwards under $5,000. Jalen Wilson of the Nets could also be a punt play, depending on whether Terrance Mann is out and how much work is available in Brooklyn’s rotation.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Joel Embiid has been looking more like his extremely productive and healthy self over the last few weeks, and he gets a great spot against the Kings on Thursday. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at center in the FantasyLabs projections and has the best Plus/Minus of all centers with salaries over $7,000 in that set of projections.
Embiid has scored at least 29 points in five straight games with over 46 DraftKings points in each contest. His high point during that stretch was his massive 32-point triple-double against the Rockets, which earned him 72.25 DraftKings points in 46 minutes.
He’s probable for this matchup against Domantas Sabonis and the Kings and should be ready to post another big game at home. If the Kings keep it close, look for Embiid to post another big point total with good supporting stats, since his minutes, rebounds, and even assists have all been on the rise lately.
Value
Just because Portis and Kuzma are finding space to produce without Giannis doesn’t mean that Myles Turner isn’t a strong option at center as well. Turner has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at the position this Thursday in a matchup he should dominate against the Wizards.
Turner had a season-high 31 points on Tuesday, finishing with 47.5 DraftKings points. That was his second straight game with over 40 DraftKings points since he had 17 points, seven rebounds and six blocks against the Bucks in his previous game last Friday.
When at his best, Turner and fill up defensive categories and brings strong scoring, and in this up-tempo matchup with the Wizards, he can be a very solid center to build around, with his salary just under $6,000.
Fast Break
Jalen Duren has the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projection at center in the ShotQuality projections on Thursday, behind only Embiid and Sengun. Duren’s numbers have been a little down in his last three games, but he should be in a good bounce-back spot against the Suns. He had 16 points, 18 rebounds and 46.5 DraftKings points in their meeting earlier this month.
Hornets center Moussa Diabate went off for 18 points, 19 rebounds and 51.2 DraftKings points on Wednesday in a win over Memphis. He has flashed that kind of huge upside several times in the past month, and he has a favorable matchup against the injury-riddled Mavericks frontcourt on Thursday. He has the fourth-highest Plus/Minus projections of all centers in the ShotQuality projections.
Without Adams coming back, the Rockets need to see if Clint Capela can be their primary backup big, or if they need to shop at the trade deadline. Depending on who is available for Houston on the second night of the back-to-back, Capela could be in a great spot against his former team, the Hawks, and he’s worth exploring if you have to go ultra-cheap at center.
Pictured: Kevin Durant
Photo Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
