The last day of regular-season action before the All-Star Break features three NBA games on tap this Thursday night. With the break looming and four teams on a back-to-back, the injury reports will be especially important to monitor leading up to tip-off, when the slate locks at 7:30 p.m. ET. Many key players are already out, and in their absence, other options are getting the chance to step up and provide great fantasy value. As availability changes and shifts throughout the day, the models will adjust, so be sure to check back before tip-off.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
In the FantasyLabs projections, Isaiah Collier has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all point guards. The game in Utah between Collier’s Jazz and the Trail Blazers has the highest point total on the board, according to our Vegas Dashboard, and it should be another great spot for Collier to step up, even with his team finding new and creative ways to avoid winning games.
Keyonte George (ankle) missed the last two games for Utah and will likely sit again on Thursday, and if he does, Collier will continue to start and carry the workload at point guard. He has started five of the last six games for the Jazz, producing a double-double and over 35 DraftKings points in all but one of those games.
He played all 48 minutes in two straight games last week, posting 62.75 DraftKings points and 56.75 DraftKings points, showing his high ceiling. He could have trouble reaching that ceiling if the starters keep playing limited minutes for Utah, though. On Wednesday, he only played 27 minutes but still managed 12 points, 14 assists, and 36.75 fantasy points.
As with all the Jazz, his playing time makes him a little tricky to rely on, but Collier has shown an extremely high upside and is worth building around if you have the salary available to include him in what should be a favorable matchup against the Trail Blazers.
Value
The Mavericks will be shorthanded as well when they roll into Los Angeles to take on the Lakers. Rookie sensation Cooper Flagg (foot) has been ruled out, while Naji Marshall (foot) and Caleb Martin (ankle) are both questionable, leaving lots of offensive workload for other players to pick up. Brandon Williams stands out in the projections with the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on the slate.
Williams’ role and usage have fluctuated over the past few games, but he has at least 27 DraftKings points in five of his last seven games. In one of his down games, he left with a leg injury, so he’s regularly been returning excellent value when available lately.
With more work available, Williams should continue his very useful fantasy production on Thursday, as he tries to help the Mavs go into the break with a nice road win over the Lakers.
Fast Break
The Bucks didn’t have Ryan Rollins (foot) on Wednesday, and Kevin Porter Jr. stepped up and had a triple-double and 54.5 DraftKings points in 39 minutes to lead the Bucks past the Magic. New arrival Cam Thomas went off for 34 points and 42.5 DraftKings points in 25 in the win as well. If Rollins is out again on Thursday, Thomas and KPJ would both be worth a look, even though they’ll be in a tough matchup against the Thunder in OKC.
Speaking of the Thunder, who will remain without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdominal) and Ajay Mitchell (abdominal), Jared McCain stepped up in his second game with OKC and had 12 points and 22.5 DraftKings points in 22 minutes on Wednesday. If he gets similar minutes on Thursday, he’ll be a great value point guard at only $3,500.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
With Luka Doncic ruled out, Austin Reaves has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at shooting guard. Reaves is not on the injury report after missing Tuesday’s loss to the Spurs and should return to help carry the workload in a favorable matchup against the Mavs.
In his eight games without Doncic this season, Reaves is averaging 31.1 points per game and 50.97 DraftKings points per game, with a team-high 35.1% usage rate.
Reaves has been forced to come off the bench in his four games since returning from missing over a month with a calf injury. He did bump his minutes up to 29 minutes against the Thunder on Monday and could return to the lineup or play more minutes off the bench on Thursday. He has scored 16 points in each of his last two games, averaging 7.5 assists and 33.4 DraftKings points in those two contests. If his minutes increase in this smash spot, he should be able to be one of the best pay-up plays on the board.
Value
When breaking down a slate, it’s helpful to have a second perspective, and one way to get that is by adding the ShotQuality projections to your models. In the ShotQuality projections, new Jazz guard Vince Williams Jr. has the highest Plus/Minus projection on the entire slate.
Williams was one of the pieces that came to the Jazz in the Jaren Jackson Jr. trade, and he has played three games for Utah. He had 19.5 and 26.5 DraftKings points in his last two contests, playing 21 minutes on Wednesday and chipping in nine points, eight rebounds, three assists, and a block.
The versatile wing from VCU can fill up the stat sheet when he’s given extended playing time, and as the Jazz rest their starters, Williams should have plenty of opportunities to return value at only $4,100.
Fast Break
Jazz rookie Ace Bailey has the third-highest ceiling projection on the slate at shooting guard in the ShotQuality projections. He has scored double-digit points in five straight games and 10 of his last 11. If the Jazz hold George and Lauri Markkanen out, Bailey could be in for even more work on Thursday.
Aside from Cam Thomas, Williams and Williams, Isaiah Joe is a great value to consider since he’s doing more offensive lifting without SGA. Joe has posted over 25 DraftKings points in three straight games and has scored 19+ points in four of his last five, while exceeding salary-based expectations in six of his last eight games.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
If he plays through his questionable tag, Naji Marshall brings excellent upside since he’ll get plenty of work against the Lakers with Flagg out. He has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at small forward and the third-highest at shooting guard in the FantasyLabs projections, and he has a strong Plus/Minus projection as well.
Marshall has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games and scored 30+ points while posting 45.5 and 41 DraftKings points in two of his last three contests.
In his three games this season without both Cooper Flagg and Anthony Davis (traded to Washington), Marshall has a 24.1% usage rate, which is an increase of almost five percentage points. He has averaged 21 points and 33.4 DraftKings points in those three games, and he should be set up in a great spot against the Lakers if he’s well enough to handle his normal workload.
Value
Aaron Wiggins has the highest Plus/Minus projection at both forward spots in the ShotQuality projections. He’s a very solid mid-range value play and could get more work if the Thunder are without Jalen Williams (hamstring), who left Wednesday’s win after possibly re-injuring his hamstring.
Wiggins has 12 points and 22.2 DraftKings points in the victory over Phoenix on Wednesday and has at least 22 DraftKings points in nine of his last 11 games. He went off for 44.5 DraftKings points in one of those games against the Spurs, showing his upside, and he consistently contributes in multiple categories when asked to step into a bigger role.
If Williams is out Thursday, Wiggins should be a great value play against the Bucks.
Fast Break
Trail Blazers small forwards Jerami Grant and Toumani Camara both bring upside, especially if Shaedon Sharpe (calf) misses a fourth straight game before the break. Grant has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at small forward on this slate, while Camara isn’t far behind, especially in the ShotQuality projections. If the Blazers rest either option, the other would be an even stronger play against Utah.
With Luka out and Reaves working his way back to full speed, Marcus Smart has stepped up more in the last few games for the Lakers. He sat on Tuesday along with most of the starters but posted 15 points for 28.75 DraftKings points and 19 points for 32.75 DraftKings points in his two previous games. Smart can be volatile, but he brings lots of upside against Dallas.
If Portland rests any regulars heading into the break, Vit Krejci could be a good bargain punt at this position. He has scored 10+ points in four of his last five games and had 17 points and 20.75 DraftKings points on Wednesday against Minnesota.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Without Luka and with Reaves less than 100%, LeBron James will have to help carry the Lakers’ offense against the Mavericks. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at the position in both sets of projections, and he also has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at power forward.
James had 17 points, 10 assists, and 36.5 DraftKings points last Thursday in the game in which Luka got hurt. In his two games since then, he had 20 points, 10 assists, and 46.75 DraftKings points in a win over the Warriors, and 22 points, 10 assists, and 46.5 DraftKings points in a loss to the Thunder.
He sat out Tuesday after that tough loss on Monday, but he’ll look to go into the break with a big night against the Mavericks, who have been a favorable matchup for power forwards this season.
Value
In both sets of projections, Jaylin Williams of the Thunder has a top-10 Plus/Minus projection at both power forward and center. If the Thunder give Isaiah Hartenstein or Chet Holmgren Thursday off, his upside will be even higher, but even if both are available, Williams has been doing enough work to be a solid value play at either big-man spot.
Williams had 11 points, six rebounds, and five assists in 28 minutes in Wednesday’s rout of the Suns, producing 34.5 DraftKings points. He showed even more upside with a 24-point, 12-rebound double-double against the Spurs last week, totaling 51.5 DraftKings points.
Watch the injury report to see who is available and who gets the night off, but Jaylin is yet another player with the last name Williams who brings plenty of potential value this Thursday.
Fast Break
Deni Avdija is behind only LeBron for the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at power forward. His positional eligibility has shifted around this season, but his ceiling remains extremely high. He had 26 points, 10 boards, and 58.5 DraftKings points earlier this week, but he had a quiet night with just 11 points and 21.25 DraftKings points to start this back-to-back in a loss to the Timberwolves.
The Mavs may need P.J. Washington to carry the offense on Thursday if Marshall joins Flagg on the sidelines. Washington has been a little quiet lately, but he has shown the ability to put up 35+ fantasy points when he’s the main option in the offense. Keep an eye on who is available for Dallas since Washington’s salary has dropped to under $6,000.
While Jarred Vanderbilt and Rui Hachimura will have less work in the rotation with LeBron back, they still have good value upside and could help fill in if Deandre Ayton (questionable) misses another game.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
The Trail Blazers have been getting good work from Donovan Clingan over the last few weeks, and the big man has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections in what should be a smash spot for him against the Jazz.
The Jazz defense has been very questionable even after adding Jaren Jackson Jr., and their weird rotations and possible absences should allow Clingan to thrive on Thursday night.
In the first game of his team’s back-to-back, Clingan only had eight points and nine boards for 27.2 DraftKings points against the Timberwolves. He had been hot before that, though, with at least 34 fantasy points in five straight games, including a game with 44.2 DraftKings points against the Suns and a game with 55.75 DraftKings points against the Grizzlies.
He is the only center on the board with that kind of upside this Thursday, so pay up for the former UConn Husky if you can.
Value
Mavericks trade deadline acquisition Marvin Bagley III has the highest Plus/Minus projection at center in both sets of projections.
Bagley has flashed upside in the past but has been very good in both his games with Dallas. He played 24 minutes against the Spurs and had 16 points, 12 rebounds, four blocks, and 46 DraftKings points last Saturday. He played 24 minutes again on Tuesday and had nine points, eight rebounds, two assists, and 21.5 DraftKings points against the Suns.
Most likely, his production off the bench behind Daniel Gafford will fall between those two levels in most contests, and he should get plenty of run since Gafford’s minutes are being so carefully monitored. He has a high ceiling for a play under $5,000 and makes sense as a value center this Thursday.
Fast Break
The Jazz continue to do weird things with their rotation, keeping Jaren Jackson Jr.‘s value in question. He’s played limited minutes but been very good when he’s on the floor. It’s also uncertain what they’ll do on the second night of their back-to-back. He’s high-risk, but JJJ has produced elite numbers with Utah on a per-minute basis since his arrival.
If you’re looking for a cheap option at center, Jericho Sims is another name to check out. The Bucks’ big man has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games and posted an impressive double-double on Wednesday with 17 points, 11 rebounds and 34.75 DraftKings points against the Magic. He started on Wednesday with Rollins out, and if he gets another start on Thursday, he’ll be an excellent value play at $4,200.
Pictured: Isaiah Collier
Photo credit: Imagn
