NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Thursday, April 24)

Thursday features a three-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Stud

Point guard is arguably the deepest position on Thursday’s slate. There are a handful of strong options to consider paying up for, but Ja Morant is grading out best in our NBA Models. He comes at a discount compared to the other top options, and his $7,600 salary comes with a 96% Bargain Rating. That means he doesn’t need to do nearly as much to return value.

Morant and the Grizzlies have put up little resistance against the Thunder, but perhaps that will change back in Memphis. They’re still solid underdogs, but the 9.5-point spread suggests there’s less blowout potential. Morant played more than 40 minutes in Game 2, and if he sees that type of workload again on Thursday, he’s a great bet to pay off his current salary. He’s averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he leads the entire slate in projected Plus/Minus.

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Value

Dennis Schroder was instrumental in the Pistons’ upset over the Knicks in Game 2. He played just under 30 minutes off the bench, and he chipped in 20 points and 27.5 DraftKings points. Schroder is projected for another 28 minutes on Thursday, and his $4,300 salary comes with a 94% Bargain Rating. Schroder has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.94 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool), and that probably undersells his value on this slate.

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Fast Break

The Thunder really haven’t needed much from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander through the first two games. He’s averaged just 21.0 points per game in those contests, yet OKC has still walked to two easy wins. However, SGA did shoot the ball 29 times in Game 2, and his salary is down to just $10,000 for Game 3. That represents a decrease of nearly -$2,000 since the end of the regular season, making him a prime buy-low target. Stacking him with Morant makes a lot of sense for tournaments, with both players possessing elite upside if the game stays competitive.

James Harden is the other stud PG popping in our Models. He’s coming off a subpar outing in Game 2, but he scored at least 60.5 DraftKings points in five of his previous six games. Ultimately, he trails only SGA at the position in terms of ceiling projection, and he’s behind only Morant in projected Plus/Minus.

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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Desmond Bane is another stud target to consider for the Grizzlies. Like Morant, he should play all the minutes he can handle in what is essentially a must-win contest. He’s currently projected for 38 minutes in our NBA Models after playing 37.1 minutes in Game 2.

Bane has also seen a massive price reduction of late, and his $6,900 salary comes with a 94% Bargain Rating. That has historically been too cheap a price tag for Bane. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Bane has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.53 with a comparable salary. He’s averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s coming off 46.0 DraftKings points vs. the Thunder in Game 2. It’s obviously a brutal matchup – OKC has been the best defensive team in basketball all year – but Bane offers a ton of value and upside at his current figure.

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Value

If you’re looking for a salary saver on this slate, you could do worse than Alex Caruso. The Thunder have not leaned heavily on Caruso for much of the season, but it’s possible that changes a bit in the playoffs. He’s coming off 22.4 minutes in Game 2 vs. the Grizzlies, and Caruso is capable of making the most of his playing time. He’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s gone for 32.0 and 40.75 DraftKings points in two of his past three games. That gives him a pretty elite ceiling at just $4,900.

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Fast Break

The Nuggets are going to need more from Jamal Murray if they have any chance of getting past the Clippers. He has not been at his best to start the series, particularly in Game 1. However, he’s still managed to return value in both contests. He’s playing all the minutes he can handle, logging 47.9 in the overtime win in Game 1 and 42.2 minutes in Game 2. No one is projected for more than his 42 minutes on Thursday’s slate, and Murray is capable of going nuclear when his shot is falling. He’s currently projected for a reasonable 25.6% ownership on DraftKings, and he’s one of my favorite tournament options on the slate.

Despite Morant being healthy, Scottie Pippen Jr. has maintained a big role for the Grizzlies in this series. He racked up 30 minutes in Game 2, and Pippen has averaged just under 1.0 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His production has been slightly worse when sharing the floor with Morant – and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in back-to-back games – but he still has some appeal at $5,000.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

If the Thunder are going to win a championship this season, they’re going to need a big postseason from Jalen Williams. He’s been the team’s clear No. 2 option offensively this season, though SGA has done most of the heavy lifting.

Fortunately, Williams is off to an excellent start. He managed 42.25 DraftKings points in just 25.9 minutes vs. the Grizzlies in Game 1, and he followed that up with 41.5 DraftKings points across 35.4 minutes in Game 2. He might not play as much as some of the other high-priced targets on this slate, but he could make up for it with his per-minute efficiency. He’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark among all of Thursday’s small forwards.

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Value

The Knicks traded a massive haul to the Nets in exchange for Mikal Bridges. He cost the team five first-round picks – four unprotected from the Knicks, one top-four protected from the Bucks – in addition to one first-round pick swap and a second-rounder. That’s the type of return you’d typically associate with one of the best players in the league, and Bridges has not lived up to that billing so far in New York. He plays quality defense and can score the ball when called upon, but he hasn’t really needed to do that all that often.

Bridges managed just 17.5 DraftKings points in Game 1 vs. the Pistons, but he bounced back with a strong showing in Game 2. He played more than 38 minutes and responded with 32.25 DraftKings points, and that type of production feels sustainable. He’s averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has routinely played one of the largest workloads in the league. His price tag is also down to just $5,400, making him a solid value target.

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Fast Break

OG Anunoby fits a similar description to Bridges: a good player, but not quite a superstar. However, Anunoby has displayed the higher ceiling for fantasy purposes. He racked up 46.25 DraftKings points across 44.1 minutes in the Knicks’ Game 1 victory, and he played an additional 42.4 minutes in Game 2. He’s projected for another 42 minutes in Game 3, and while he’s a bit more expensive than Bridges, the extra salary could be worth it: He ultimately leads the position in projected Plus/Minus.

Michael Porter Jr. is like the box of chocolates from Forrest Gump: you never know what you’re gonna get. We saw the bad version of Porter in Game 1, and he was ultimately banished to the bench to close out the fourth quarter. However, we got the good version in Game 2, with Porter finishing with 38.25 DraftKings points in 33.4 minutes. He’s averaged just under a fantasy point per minute over the past month, so he has upside and is projected for less than 5% ownership.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Kawhi Leonard will be one of the greatest “what-ifs” from the modern NBA. If he were able to stay healthy, there’s no ceiling to how good he could’ve been. He reminded everyone of that fact in Game 2 vs. the Nuggets, finishing with 39 points while shooting a remarkable 15-19 from the field.

Leonard likely won’t shoot that well again on Thursday, but there’s no reason he can’t provide another phenomenal fantasy outing. Leonard has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 44.25 DraftKings points in five of his past six games. He’s healthier for the postseason than he’s been in years, and he makes the Clippers a legit threat in the Western Conference.

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Value

Tobias Harris was the scapegoat for years in Philadelphia, and it looked like something similar could happen in Detroit. He pulled a classic Harris in Game 1 vs. the Knicks, scoring 22 points in the first half before disappearing in the second.

That said, all we care about is fantasy production. So far, Harris has delivered the goods vs. the Knicks. He’s racked up 38.0 and 36.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he’s done it in different ways. He had the scoring outburst in his first outing, and he finished with 13 rebounds and a double-double in his second. The fact that he can return value in multiple ways gives him a solid floor, and he stands out as underpriced at just $6,100.

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Fast Break

Aaron Gordon struggled to just 23.0 DraftKings points in his last outing, but that looks like an outlier performance. He had at least 32.25 DraftKings points in his four previous contests, including 39.5 in Game 1 vs. the Clippers. He’s a solid bounce-back target at just $6,000.

Chet Holmgren could be one of the more contrarian pay-up options on this slate. He’s scored at least 43.5 DraftKings points in his first two playoff outings, and he got up to 33.3 minutes in Game 2. He’s never going to play quite as much as some of the other top power forwards, but he’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s been even better in that department to start the playoffs, so he’s an interesting pivot off guys like Anunoby and Williams.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Jokic has been the best player in fantasy this season, putting up one of the most remarkable statistical seasons since Wilt Chamberlain. He averaged 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game, putting him in the top three in all three categories.

Jokic’s production hasn’t been quite that high to start the playoffs, but he’s still scored 65.0 and 67.25 DraftKings points in his two outings vs. the Clippers. He has the highest ceiling projection on Thursday’s slate by a pretty comfortable margin, and he’s projected for a slate-best 42 minutes.

The only real issue with Jokic is his price tag. He’s priced at $11,600 on DraftKings, and while that’s not a big number for him on the surface, it’s big for the dynamics of this slate. He’s $1,600 more expensive than every other option, and SGA is the only player within $2,200 of him. There are also minimal true value options to choose from, so fitting him into your lineups is harder than usual.

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Value

Zach Edey was a massive source of value for the Grizzlies down the stretch, but he’s been unable to stay on the floor vs. OKC. Part of that has been due to the game scripts, but Edey logged just 26.1 minutes in Game 2. Most of the other starters were above 35 minutes in that contest, so it’s a bit of a red flag moving forward.

Still, Edey doesn’t need more than 26 minutes to potentially return value. He’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he had scored at least 34.5 DraftKings points in six of eight games prior to the OKC series. His price tag has also come back down to just $5,500 for Game 3, so he’s a reasonable target in this matchup.

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Fast Break

While Leonard and Harden are the Clippers’ best players, Ivica Zubac has been their most consistent threat all season. He’s turned in the best year of his career, and he’s been a beast down the stretch. He’s averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.36 over his past 10 contests. That includes two straight games of at least 39.5 DraftKings points vs. the Nuggets. He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus, making him arguably the best option at center.

Jalen Duren logged more than 36 minutes in Game 2 vs. the Knicks, and he has massive upside if he’s going to play that much. He was capped at closer to 30 minutes per game during the regular season, but he benefited from the absence of Isaiah Stewart. Stewart is questionable for Game 3, so make sure to monitor his status before tip-off. If he’s out once again, Duren would become one of the top center targets of the day.

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Pictured: Ja Morant
Photo Credit: Imagn