With just over a week left in the NBA regular season, the NBA has six games on the scoreboard this Thursday night, and all six are on the main NBA DFS fantasy basketball slate on DraftKings. The Spurs and Warriors are the only two teams playing for the second night in a row, but it’s still critical to keep a close eye on the injury reports for all 12 teams throughout the day. It should be a fun slate with some tasty matchups on the board, so let’s take a look at a few of the options standing out as good plays in our models. Be sure to check back for updates as injury statuses are finalized, since making the right last-minute adjustments is a key to fantasy basketball success, especially at this time of the season.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
In the FantasyLabs projections, Luka Doncic has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of any player on the slate. He and the Lakers are visiting the Thunder in one of the marquee matchups of the night, and Luka’s current run of success is impressive enough that he’s an option to consider even at over $12,000.
Doncic had 42 points, 12 assists, and 74.75 DraftKings points against the Cavs in a win on Tuesday and has over 60 DraftKings points in three straight and six of his last seven. Over those seven games, he averaged 67.7 DraftKings points per game on 41.6 points and 7.0 assists per game. The Lakers have been surging in the standings, and Doncic is clearly the focal point of their very productive offense.
Even though he’s in a tough matchup, Doncic brings a high enough ceiling to still be one of the best pay-up plays on the board. He was held to 40.75 DraftKings points in the two teams’ last meeting in November, but he has much more momentum coming into this rematch and has a good chance to step up with a huge game, even though the Thunder defense at home in OKC is a very formidable challenge.
Value
One of the best sources of value on the board this Thursday night is the Portland Trail Blazers, who are hosting the New Orleans Pelicans in one of the later games of the night. Point guard Scoot Henderson has the highest Plus/Minus projection of any point guard on the slate, and the Trail Blazers have the highest implied team total on the board this Thursday, according to our Vegas dashboard.
Henderson has started the last two games for Portland, with Jerami Grant (calf) joining Shaedon Sharpe (calf) on the sidelines. Without both of those players in the last two games, Henderson has started and played big minutes in back-to-back wins over the Wizards and Clippers. Henderson had 21 points, seven assists, and 34.75 DraftKings points against Washington in 25 minutes and followed that up with 15 points and 21.25 DraftKings points in 29 minutes against the Clippers.
The Blazers have been keeping Henderson very involved, and over his last 13 games, the 22-year-old has averaged 16.2 points, 3.5 assists, 2.8 rebounds, and 27.6 DraftKings points per game.
In a larger role again on Thursday with a favorable matchup against the Pelicans, Henderson is a top mid-range value to target at point guard with a very high ceiling.
Fast Break
While Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander go head-to-head in one of the biggest matchups of the night, LaMelo Ball and the Hornets host Devin Booker and the Suns in another marquee matchup. Ball has the best Plus/Minus projection of the star guards and has the potential to go off with a huge game if the contest stays competitive.
Without Cade Cunningham (lung), Daniss Jenkins has stepped in as a key contributor for the Pistons. He has the third-highest Plus/Minus projections at point guard on Thursday as the Pistons take on the Timberwolves. Over his last nine games, Jenkins has averaged 35.6 DraftKings points in 34.4 minutes per game. His best game of that stretch was a 30-point performance against the Lakers, showing off his ceiling with 48 DraftKings points.
The Spurs have been getting great minutes from rookie Dylan Harper, who has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 11 games, averaging 27.8 DraftKings points in 24.1 minutes per game. If the Spurs opt to rest any players for the second half of their back-to-back, Harper could help pick up the slack, giving him even more upside.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
When breaking down a slate, it can be helpful to have a second perspective, and one way to get that is by adding the ShotQuality projections to your models. In the ShotQuality projections, Kawhi Leonard has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at shooting guard, and he also has a positive Plus/Minus projection, which is unusual for a player with a salary over $9,000.
Leonard has been carrying the Clippers’ offense since the trade of James Harden, and he’s been a good fit with Darius Garland. He has scored at least 20 points in 52 straight games and in 57 of his 60 games overall this season. He’s averaging 28.1 points and 46.0 DraftKings points per game on the season and has been one of the more reliable options to consider all year. His multi-category production gives him both a high ceiling and a high floor.
Kawhi had 30 points and 51.25 DraftKings points when he faced the Spurs at the start of last month, and he’ll catch them on Thursday on the second night of a back-to-back. After losing to the Trail Blazers on Tuesday, the Clippers will look to right the ship as Leonard tries to take down his former team on Thursday night.
Value
Even with Anthony Edwards potentially back in the mix, Ayo Dosunmu has been good enough over the last few weeks to be a top value play on the wing from his salary just under $7,000. Dosunmu has the second-highest Plus/Minus projections of all shooting guards and the third-highest of all small forwards in the ShotQuality projections.
Edwards is questionable but could sit out this game against the Pistons since it’s the front end of a back-to-back. He missed six consecutive games due to right knee pain but returned in Monday’s win over the Mavericks with 17 points in 23 minutes.
Dosunmu also missed time with a calf injury but has averaged 15.2 points, 6.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 32.4 DraftKings points per game. On Monday, he went off for 65.2 DraftKings points against the Mavs, finishing with a triple-double of 18 points, 15 rebounds, 12 assists, and three steals. He has over 40 DraftKings points in four straight games and will be in an especially big role if Edwards sits out Thursday.
Fast Break
Devin Booker has scored 36 and 34 points in the first two games of the Suns’ road trip, finishing with 46.5 DraftKings points against the Grizzlies on Monday and 49.25 DraftKings points against the Magic on Tuesday. He has that kind of ceiling against Ball and the Hornets on Thursday as well, giving him the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at shooting guard in the ShotQuality projections.
On the other side of that matchup, Kon Knueppel has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at the position in the FantasyLabs projections and the third-highest in the ShotQuality projections. He is coming off a few down games but reminded everyone of his ceiling with a massive game against the Knicks last week. He finished that game with 26 points and 55.25 DraftKings points.
The Warriors were extremely short-handed against the Spurs on Wednesday, and it isn’t clear who will be back for Thursday against the Cavaliers. One value player to consider if he stays in a bigger role is Pat Spencer. Spencer is still extremely cheap at only $4,000 but posted 23.75, 29.25, and 37.0 DraftKings points in his last three games. He stepped up against the Spurs in Wednesday’s loss, chipping in 14 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists in 38 minutes. Watch the Warriors’ injury report closely to see if he’ll be set for another big workload on Thursday. If he is, he’ll be one of the best values on the board.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The ShotQuality projections are all in on Deni Avdija on Thursday night against the Pelicans. Avdija has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at small forward and power forward, and he also has the highest Plus/Minus projection on the entire slate in both the ShotQuality and FantasyLabs projections. He is in a smash spot against the Pelicans and has been helping the Trail Blazers climb to the No. 9 seed in the Western Conference, just 0.5 games behind the Clippers for the No. 8 spot.
Avdija has had a breakout season when healthy, averaging 23.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, 6.7 assists, and 43.8 DraftKings points per game. He missed time with a back injury at the start of March, but he has at least 39 DraftKings points in nine of his 13 games since returning. He put up an impressive 54.75 DraftKings points in 34 minutes on Tuesday in a big win over the Clippers, and he’ll look to build on that success in a much softer matchup against New Orleans.
Like Kawhi, Avdija brings a very high ceiling and high floor as well since he contributes in such a variety of ways across the board. He is a key play to consider at just under $9,000 with the potential to produce 50+ DraftKings points in Thursday’s home game.
Value
Another great value play from Portland in their matchup with the Pelicans is Toumani Camara. Camara has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection on the entire slate in the ShotQuality projections, behind only Avdija.
Camara hasn’t been as consistent as Avdija this season, but he has scored at least 16 points in six of his last nine games. He had 35 points and 50.75 DraftKings points against the Nets a couple of weeks ago and had another strong game against the Wizards on Sunday, with 23 points and 40.75 DraftKings points.
Since he has been smashing in soft matchups like this one, he brings a lot of upside with the versatility to slide to shooting guard to fit in almost any roster construction with his salary just under $6,000.
Fast Break
Brandon Miller is another stud small forward with a high ceiling on Thursday. He has 20+ points and 34+ DraftKings points in three of his last four contests coming into Thursday’s matchup with the Suns. He’s a little higher risk since he relies primarily on scoring without as much peripheral production as the other top small-forward options.
Without Cunningham, Ausar Thompson and Kevin Huerter have picked up more scoring for the Pistons and bring boom-or-bust upside as mid-range plays. Huerter had 17 points and 36.5 DraftKings points against the Thunder on Monday, but he only had eight points and 16 DraftKings points in 22 minutes on Tuesday. The upside for both is there, but there is also significant risk.
Max Strus is working his way back into a role in the Cavaliers’ rotation after missing most of the season after undergoing surgery to repair a Jones fracture in his left foot. Strus has played seven games and is averaging 12.3 points and 24.7 DraftKings points per game, which makes him a solid value play just over $4,000. He had a huge game against the Heat last Friday, pouring in 29 points to go with eight rebounds for 44 DraftKings points in just 23 minutes. He made his first start of the season on Tuesday.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Behind only Avdija, Evan Mobley has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at power forward. He gets a favorable matchup on Thursday against the injury-depleted Warriors, who may remain very short-handed in the frontcourt.
Mobley and the Cavs had a disappointing game in Los Angeles on Tuesday in a loss to the Lakers, but before that, he had been on a nice roll with at least 37 DraftKings points in nine of his previous 11 games.
On Monday, Mobley had 34 points, 17 rebounds, and 68.2 DraftKings points as the Cavs crushed the Jazz, and he has 50+ DraftKings points in three of his last eight contests. He still brings a very high ceiling despite the disappointing showing on Tuesday.
Even though Jarrett Allen is back, Mobley has a good chance to remain very involved down the stretch as the Cavs try to ease Allen back in before the playoffs. Mobley’s high ceiling at $8,400 makes him a nice fit at either power forward or center on this Thursday’s slate.
Value
In both sets of projections, Tobias Harris has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward, behind only Avdija. Harris has helped pick up the slack without Cunningham and has scored at least 12 points in six straight games and eight of his last nine.
Over his last nine contests, Harris has averaged 32.1 DraftKings points in 29 minutes per game. He had three games of over 35 DraftKings points in his last five contests, although he did slow down a little bit with only 27.25 DraftKings points on Tuesday against Toronto.
Harris and the Pistons host the Timberwolves in one of the most intriguing games on the slate, since both teams are looking to make a deep playoff run and have exciting pieces that they’re trying to mesh together. Harris’s increased production makes him a solid forward play and a good way to get a piece of this Thursday matchup in the Motor City.
Fast Break
It’s amazing what LeBron James continues to be able to contribute for both the Lakers and his fantasy managers. James had a triple-double on Monday against the Wizards, producing 56.5 DraftKings points in 33 minutes on 21 points, 12 assists, and 10 boards. He has 40+ DraftKings points in five of his last eight games and will look to step up again in his team’s showdown with the Thunder on Thursday night. He has the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at power forward this Thursday.
While he was squeezed out of the rotation for a little while, rookie Derik Queen seems to be stepping back into a role for the Pelicans as they play out the rest of their season after being eliminated from the playoff race. Queen has double-digit points in three straight games, producing 29.75, 26.0, and 19.75 DraftKings points in losses to the Pistons, Raptors, and Rockets. If Karlo Matkovic (back, questionable) is out, that could relieve a bit of the logjam in the Pelicans’ frontcourt and open more opportunities for the rookie. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward in the ShotQuality projections.
As a bargain value option, Matisse Thybulle has some upside to consider. He has been getting good minutes off the bench for the Blazers and has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five games coming into a favorable matchup with the Pelicans.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
The Spurs have been outstanding over the last few months, emerging as true title contenders with consistent excellence on a nightly basis. They beat the Warriors on Wednesday behind another big game from Victor Wembanyama, who is an expensive option to build around but brings one of the highest ceilings on the slate any time he is in action.
Wemby has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at center by a wide margin and has posted back-to-back games with 41 points coming into Thursday’s road game against the Clippers. He had 41 points, 16 rebounds, and 77 DraftKings points in just 31 minutes against the Bulls on Monday and followed that with 41 more points, 18 rebounds, and 76.5 DraftKings points in 29 minutes against the Warriors.
Wembanyama should be ready for a tough matchup with the Clippers, especially since his minutes were limited on the front end of the back-to-back. He had 21 points, 13 boards, and 51.25 DraftKings points against the Clippers earlier this month, and he’ll look to post an even bigger number against them on Thursday since he has been on such an impressive roll lately, with 60+ DraftKings points in four of his last five.
Value
In both sets of projections, Brook Lopez has the highest Plus/Minus projection at center, since he’ll have to play major minutes to try to keep Wembanyama in check. The veteran has been stepping up lately for the Clippers and has exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight contests.
On Tuesday, he had 36.25 DraftKings points against the Trail Blazers on 18 points and seven rebounds in 36 minutes. He has scored double-digit points and had over 35 DraftKings points in four of his last five games, making him a strong value option under $6,000, even though he’s in a tougher matchup against Wemby.
Fast Break
Jalen Duren has been excellent for the Pistons while Cunningham has been out and has shown off an extremely high ceiling. He had 61 DraftKings points against the Pelicans last week and 47.25 DraftKings points against the Raptors on Tuesday after he sat out the front half of the team’s back-to-back on Monday. He’s not on the injury report for this matchup with Rudy Gobert, which should be a great one to watch.
Blazers’ big men Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams III both bring good value upside at their respective salaries in their matchup against the Pelicans. Clingan has had a few slower games this past week but still brings a very high ceiling, especially in a smash spot like this one. Williams is more of a value play but has shown the potential to get double-digit points or double-digit rebounds in his role off the bench behind Clingan.
If you opt to go with a bargain at center, Jaxson Hayes stands out with the best Plus/Minus projection under $4,000 at the position. He exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight games before a quieter game on Tuesday. He has been very effective off the bench behind Deandre Ayton lately, producing on both ends of the floor with multiple blocks and double-digit points in four straight games before Tuesday’s slower performance.
Pictured: Deni Avdija
Photo Credit: Imagn
