With the trade deadline behind us and the All-Star break just around the corner in less than a week, the NBA has five games on the main DraftKings slate this Saturday night. The main slate begins at 7:00 p.m. ET after a few afternoon games provide some early drama. None of the 10 teams on the main slate is playing for the second day in a row, which should give us fairly normal rotations, although there are some key players questionable coming into the day. As availability changes and shifts throughout the day, the models will adjust, so be sure to check back before tip-off.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
In the FantasyLabs projections, Jamal Murray has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all point guards. Murray and the Nuggets are in Chicago to take on the Bulls after losing the first two games of their road trip and three in a row overall.
The Nuggets continue to deal with multiple injury issues, and Murray has had to carry more of the offense lately with so many key contributors out. For Saturday’s game, Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson are out, while Cameron Johnson and Nikola Jokic are questionable. If Jokic is out along with those two forwards, Murray will have to carry as much of the offense as he can.
Murray will be in a great matchup against the Bulls, which gives him a very high ceiling in the contest. Chicago totally remade their team at the trade deadline and will remain with point guards Josh Giddey and Tre Jones on Saturday (more below). It should be a great place for Murray to post a huge game, and in that matchup, the Nuggets have the second-highest implied team total of the slate according to our Vegas Dashboard.
Murray had over 50 DraftKings points in each of his last two games, posting 51.2 and 55.75 DraftKings points in losses to the Pistons and Knicks. He has over 40 DraftKings points in eight straight contests and brings a high floor with his high ceiling, especially if Jokic is out or at less than 100%.
Value
The Jazz have been the best matchup to attack for most of the season, and as they visit Orlando, the Magic have the highest implied team total of the night. Jalen Suggs has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players at all positions on the slate.
Suggs is still underpriced after working his way back to full speed since missing three weeks with a right knee MCL contusion. He returned two weeks ago and has been ramping his minutes back up. He has scored double-digit points in four of his last five games and has at least 35 DraftKings points in three of his last four.
On Thursday against Brooklyn, Suggs posted a massive 63.75 DraftKings points in just 29 minutes, finishing with 15 points, 11 rebounds, 11 assists, four blocks, and three steals. He probably won’t be able to duplicate that monster performance, but he should be able to return great value at just over $6,000, and he brings a very high ceiling at a mid-range salary with his multi-category upside.
Fast Break
Isaiah Collier has played 48 minutes in back-to-back games for the Jazz, producing big double-doubles against the Pacers and Hawks and earning 62.75 and 56.75 DraftKings points. If Keyonte George is unable to play through his questionable tag, Collier will have lots of work to do once again, but he’ll be in a tough matchup against Suggs. His salary has risen to $7,500, which will make him overpriced if George returns, but he’s impressed enough in the last two games that he at least should be considered if George is out or as a high-upside leverage option if George returns.
The Warriors will be without Stephen Curry, which makes Pat Spencer a good value play. Spencer has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last six games, including posting 23.5 DraftKings points against the Sixers and 38.5 DraftKings points against the Suns in his last two games. Spencer scored a career-high 20 points on Thursday against Phoenix in his 50th NBA game of the season. That’s especially important, since he’s on a two-way contract and has now used all of his NBA eligibility. He’ll need to get that taken care of by signing a standard contract before the game in Los Angeles, but he isn’t on the injury report and will be a good value if he plays Saturday.
Saying that the Bulls’ backcourt is in transition is an understatement. Jaden Ivey played 33 minutes in his Bulls debut on Thursday, racking up 33.5 DraftKings points on 13 points, six assists, four rebounds, and three steals. His salary has been adjusted up to $5,000, but he still brings a strong Plus/Minus projection and plenty of upside against the banged-up Nuggets. Yuki Kawamura has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games and is also worth a look as a bargain under $4,000.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
With Luka Doncic ruled out, Austin Reaves has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at shooting guard. Reaves is expected to move into the starting lineup after coming off the bench in his two games since returning from injury, and will have to help carry the load without Luka.
In his six games without Doncic this season, Reaves is averaging 36.2 points per game and 56.83 DraftKings points per game, with a team-high 35.9% usage rate. He will likely get all the work he can handle against the Warriors on Saturday night, especially with Luke Kennard questionable and Gabe Vincent traded away.
Reaves played 25 minutes against the Sixers on Thursday and went off for 35 points and 45.5 DraftKings points in just his second game back after missing over a month with a calf injury. He could still be on a minutes limit Saturday, but he proved he can fill it up and be productive even at less than 100%. His conditioning is cause for concern, but his upside still makes him worth a look on Saturday’s slate.
Value
When breaking down a slate, it’s helpful to have a second perspective, and one way to get that is by adding the ShotQuality projections to your models. In the ShotQuality projections, new Bulls guard Collin Sexton has the highest Plus/Minus projection at shooting guard and the second-highest on the whole slate.
Sexton is off the injury report and ready for his Bulls debut in the new-look backcourt. He averaged 14.2 points, 1.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 0.9 steals in 22 minutes per game for the Hornets this season, producing 23.9 DraftKings points per game.
He’s proven that he can produce good numbers across the box score in a larger role and should be able to find more playing time in Chicago. He is still a bargain at $4,300, and if he gets the start, he could be in for plenty of work in his debut, setting him up as an excellent value.
Fast Break
Hornets rookie Kon Knueppel has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor of all shooting guards in the ShotQuality projections. He also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in those projections. The Hornets are in a good matchup against the Hawks, and new addition Coby White (calf) will not yet be available for his new team, leaving more work for Knueppel after Sexton’s trade to Chicago.
Another Bulls addition, Anfernee Simons, had 22 points and 32.5 DraftKings points in his Bulls debut. Simons, Ivey, and Sexton will step right into a big workload until the return of Josh Giddey, so they all bring good value upside but also are a little risky since the rotation is still a work in progress.
Without Luka, Jake LaRavia becomes a good option for the Lakers, especially with Reaves possibly not ready to carry a full workload. LaRavia has scored 18 and 14 points in his last two games, producing 26.25 and 22.5 DraftKings points. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last eight games and is still a bargain play even with more work likely coming his way on Saturday.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Hornets small forward Brandon Miller has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at the position, and he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward in both sets of projections. Miller has a great matchup against the Hawks; Atlanta has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to small forwards this season.
The 23-year-old Miller has been a huge part of the Hornets’ recent hot streak and is getting heavy usage, which gives him lots of upside. In his last 14 games, he’s averaging 21.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.2 steals per game.
He only had 21.75 DraftKings points in 21 minutes due to foul trouble in Thursday’s win over the Rockets, but he should be rested and ready to roll against the Hawks. Before Thursday’s down game, he had exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his previous 11 games. He put up over 43 DraftKings points in three of his last seven contests, and if he gets back in that form, he’ll be a great play to build around on Saturday.
Value
The Warriors have been giving more time to Gui Santos, and the 23-year-old forward from Brazil has stepped up with solid production. He has a top-five Plus/Minus projection at small forward for Saturday’s matchup with the Lakers after exceeding salary-based expectations in five straight games.
Santos started three of those five games, including each of his last two. He averaged 14.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.4 blocks, and 1.4 steals for 30.8 DraftKings points per game.
On Thursday against Phoenix, Santos had 18 points, four rebounds, seven assists, one block, and one steal over 36 minutes for 37 DraftKings points. He may lose work once Kristaps Porzingis is ready to join the rotation, but until then, he should continue to be a solid value play at forward with his mid-range salary at $4,900.
Fast Break
Suns star guard Devin Booker is questionable, but if he needs another game before returning or time to ramp up, Dillon Brooks will continue to be a strong small forward play. He has the second-highest ceiling projection at the position and should be busy with or without Booker since Grayson Allen has already been ruled out.
Patrick Williams has had to play a variety of roles for the Bulls with all their roster transition, and on this slate, he has small forward and power forward eligibility. Williams exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games before coming up just short on Thursday, and he has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection at small forward on Saturday against the Nuggets.
On the other side of that matchup in Chicago, Julian Strawther is a bargain worth considering for the Nuggets since he has helped absorb so much workload lately. Strawther has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games and five of his last eight. He scored 15 points and had 28 DraftKings points against the Pistons on Tuesday. He brings very nice upside for a player under $4,000, especially if Cameron Johnson is ruled out.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Without Luka, LeBron James will have to help carry the Lakers’ offense against the Warriors, and he has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at the position in both sets of projections. He also has the highest Plus/Minus projection at power forward in the FantasyLabs projections despite his salary of $8,700.
James had 17 points, 10 assists, and 36.5 DraftKings points on Thursday in the game in which Luka got hurt, and he posted 44.75 DraftKings points on Tuesday against the Nets.
While his stats haven’t always matched up to his elevated salary this season, he still brings an immensely high ceiling, and with Reaves potentially limited and Doncic out, he’ll need to defy Father Time and step up with a big game once again on Saturday.
Value
In the ShotQuality projections, Dominick Barlow of the 76ers has the highest Plus/Minus projection at power forward. His is the third highest in the FantasyLabs projections, but he’s still a great value play to consider at either power forward or center with his salary of barely over $4,000.
Barlow could be in for a huge workload if Joel Embiid (knee) is unable to play through his questionable tag, but even if Embiid plays, he should be worth a look as a very good value. The fourth-year forward has found a good role with the Sixers, starting 34 of his 41 games and producing 8.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.0 steals per game.
The 22-year-old Barlow has at least 22 DraftKings points in three straight games and exploded for 57 DraftKings points on 26 points and 16 rebounds against the Clippers on Monday. He’s a solid bargain with a high ceiling and just agreed to a standard contract with Philadelphia prior to Thursday’s game, ensuring he’ll be available for the Sixers the rest of the season.
Fast Break
Jalen Johnson has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at power forward, but he is very highly priced compared to the other forward options in play. He also has a tougher matchup against the Hornets, so his Plus/Minus projections indicate he may not be worth paying up for on Saturday night.
On the other side of that matchup, Miles Bridges is a solid mid-range option at power forward with a good Plus/Minus projection after exceeding salary-based expectations in three of his last four games and posting 35 DraftKings points in Thursday’s win over Houston.
Another bargain value if you don’t trust Barlow is Guerschon Yabusele, who should be ready to make his debut for the Bulls after being traded there from the Knicks. Yabusele could step into a very large role after the Nikola Vucevic trade depending on whether Jalen Smith (calf) plays through his questionable tag.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
The three centers with the highest ceiling projections are all questionable, leaving Jaren Jackson Jr. as a very interesting option in his debut for the Jazz. He has the fourth-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at center in the FantasyLabs projections.
Jackson averaged 21.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 2.0 threes, 1.7 blocks, and 1.5 steals for 38.7 DraftKings points per game in his last 10 games for the Grizzlies, but he could be in a more featured role, especially if Keyonte George remains out and Isaiah Collier finds ways to get him the ball in good spots.
While he is risky in his unknown role, the Jazz gave up a lot of assets to bring him in, so look for them to showcase his upside as much and as soon as they can.
Value
Hornets center Moussa Diabate has the highest Plus/Minus projection at center in the ShotQuality projections, where he also has the fourth-highest ceiling projections. He has huge upside while still sharing time with rookie Ryan Kalkbrenner, and he has a solid salary of just $5,300.
Diabate played 29 minutes and had 29.5 DraftKings points on Thursday against the Rockets. He has been boom or bust in his last few games before that, producing only 16.2 DraftKings points against the Pelicans but also posting 51.2 DraftKings points against the Grizzlies in the last few weeks.
He has at least 29 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and is becoming a force on the glass and defensive end while chipping in good points in the right situations.
Fast Break
Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid have the top projections across the board, so if either plays through their questionable tag, they could be great leverage plays with a full workload. Jokic played 45 minutes on Wednesday against the Knicks and finished with 30 points, 14 rebounds, 10 assists, and 67.5 DraftKings points. Embiid has also been excellent when available.
Wendell Carter Jr. has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs projections and the second highest in the ShotQuality projections. He has played fewer minutes lately, but his salary has slid so much that he should be a good value option against the Jazz, who have been a great matchup for centers this season (although that could change with Jackson in the mix).
Along with Barlow and Yabusele (discussed above), Al Horford is a solid play under $5,000 who brings good value. Horford has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six games and should stay very busy until Porzingis is ready to take some of the minutes in Golden State.
