Monday features a small five-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Thunder are the first team this year to capture 50 wins and continue to lead the Western Conference with a 50-15 record. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the team with 31.6 points per game, which is also the second-highest in the league. He is shooting a career-high 54.9% from the field, showing his efficiency.
Gilgeous-Alexander has thrived in the first two matchups against the Nuggets this season. The Thunder are 2-0 in this series, and he is averaging a 35-point, 11-assist double-double with four rebounds, two steals, and 63.3 DraftKings points per game while shooting over 51% from the field. Gilgeous-Alexander has been to the line frequently against the Nuggets, to no surprise, with 13 free throw attempts per game.
The Thunder are 7.5-point home favorites, implied for 119.75 points, which is the second-highest on the slate. There are plenty of value options available, making it easy to fit Gilgeous-Alexander into any lineup build despite his $10,700 price tag. He is currently drawing over 30% projected ownership in our model.
Value
Gilgeous-Alexander is the second-most popular point guard tonight. Leading the point guard position in ownership is Grizzlies’ Javon Small. The rookie from West Virginia continues to get valuable playing time with Ja Morant still out. Guards Ty Jerome and Scotty Pippen Jr. are also both doubtful to play tonight.
Our model has Small projected to draw his fourth start of the season and play around 33 minutes. That is more than enough time to pay off his $5,400 salary. Small leads this position with the highest projected Plus/Minus and is nearing 40% projected ownership. He is a great value play in all formats on this slate.
In Small’s three starts this season, he is stuffing the stat sheet, averaging 12 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.3 steals, and 29.4 DraftKings points per game. There are several Grizzlies’ value pieces on this five-game slate, and Small is firmly in this mix. He has a 45% optimal lineup rate in our NBA simulations tonight.
Fast Break
James Harden has taken a backseat in usage rate since joining the Cavaliers but has been more efficient than he was on the Clippers. In his 10 games with the Cavaliers, Harden is averaging 19.1 points and 8.1 assists per game and is coming off his third double-double since joining the team. The Cavaliers are a slate-high 12.5-point favorite against a 76ers team without Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Harden is drawing over 20% projected ownership and has the second-highest projected ceiling at this position.
Pat Spencer is another value point guard that is worth getting exposure to on this slate. The Warriors are lacking firepower without Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Kristaps Porzingis. Spencer is a low-usage point guard but will play close to 30 minutes and draws an elite matchup against the Jazz, who rank dead last in defensive rating and third in pace this season. At $4,700, Spencer has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at this position and is drawing 25% projected ownership. He is simply too cheap in this spot.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The shooting guard position is lacking star power with the assumption that Donovan Mitchell will not play on the second leg of the Cavaliers’ back-to-back after just coming back from a groin injury. With Mitchell out, Warriors’ Brandin Podziemski has the highest projected ceiling with his dual guard eligibility.
Podziemski has been playing heavy minutes recently and is averaging 17.3 points, 9.3 rebounds, five assists, and 38.9 DraftKings points per game since the All-Star break. His salary has jumped to a season-high $7,400, but given the elite matchup and his recent play, Podziemski is worth the high price tag.
The perimeter is one of the best ways to attack the Jazz defense. Not only are they allowing a league-high 125 points per game, but they are also allowing opponents to shoot 37.2% from behind the arc this season. In his last three games, Podziemski has poured in 10 3-pointers while shooting 41.7% from deep.
Value
Cam Spencer is another Grizzlies value player that is going to be a priority on this small slate. He has been incredible over the last five games, averaging 13.8 points and 27.9 DraftKings points per game while shooting a blistering 53.3% from the field and 47.8% from behind the arc. Over 50% of his field goal attempts have come from downtown during that time. He is doing that in only 23.2 minutes per game.
The Grizzlies have lost 16 of their last 21 games and are on the outside looking in for the play-in tournament. Luckily for tonight, the Nets are also terrible. The Grizzlies are surprisingly favorites tonight.
The Nets rank 28th in defensive rating this season and are allowing opponents to shoot a league-high 38% from behind the arc. That is music to the ears for the Grizzlies’ sharpshooter. Nearly 60% of his field goal attempts are 3-pointers, and he is shooting nearly 45% from distance. He is an elite value at $4,800.
Fast Break
VJ Edgecombe is questionable to play tonight with a back injury but would be a fantastic play if he is able to suit up with Maxey and Embiid out. Keep an eye on his status throughout the day, but he has missed each of his last two games. With Maxey and Embiid off the floor this season, Edgecombe has a 5.98% usage rate boost. When playing full games, Edgecombe had four straight games with over 40 DraftKings points. The rookie from Baylor is a strong pay-up option if he is able to play tonight.
Walter Clayton is another rookie worth targeting for the Grizzlies. At his $4,600 salary, Clayton has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at the shooting guard position and is projected for over 30% ownership. He will play close to 30 minutes and has displayed a ceiling that makes him a strong value. In their last win against the Pacers, Clayton dished out 14 assists. He has played 10 games since joining the Grizzlies and is averaging 8.2 points and 6.8 assists per game. Clayton is a phenomenal value in all builds.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Leading the small forward position in projected ceiling by a wide margin is Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard. He has been on a scoring frenzy this season, averaging a career-high 27.9 points per game and shooting 49.7%. He ranks second in the league in steals per game, proving to be one of the best two-way players.
The optimal lineups flood everyone to mid-range and value plays at this position. Leonard is drawing less than 10% projected ownership and is the easiest way to differentiate lineups tonight. He has the highest projected usage rate on the slate at 34.3%, making him a contrarian pay-up option at his $9,800 salary.
Since Harden was traded from the Clippers to the Cavaliers, Leonard is averaging 28.7 points, seven rebounds, and 46.9 DraftKings points per game with 21 steals in 11 games. This is a difficult matchup against the Knicks, who rank sixth in defensive rating, but Leonard is still worth targeting in tournaments.
Value
Second-year pro Jaylon Tyson is having a breakout season for the Cavaliers, averaging 13.5 points and 5.3 rebounds per game while shooting 50.1% from the field and 45.6% from behind the arc. He has been inconsistent lately since the Cavaliers acquired Harden, but his risk is mitigated tonight without Mitchell.
Tyson is currently one of the most popular players on the slate, drawing over 50% projected ownership. His optimal lineup rate is slightly lower at 41%, but Tyson is one of the first clicks in cash-game contests and an elite value play in tournaments. He is $5,700 with dual forward eligibility in this strong matchup.
Tyson has been dialed in from long distance all season. He has made 14 3-pointers in his last four games and at least one 3-pointer in nine straight games. With the Cavaliers’ slate-high team total and being double-digit favorites, this could be another huge game from Tyson. He is one of the best plays available.
Fast Break
De’Anthony Melton has the third-highest projected ceiling at this position behind Leonard and Tyson. He is another player that has flourished for the Warriors recently with Curry out of the lineup. Melton is coming off his best statistical game of the season, where he recorded 23 points, six rebounds, three steals, two assists, and two blocks for a season-high 43.5 DraftKings points. It was Melton’s third game in his last five where he had 37+ DraftKings points. He is playing well, which will keep increasing his playing time.
Back to the Grizzlies’ value options with another player drawing over 30% projected ownership in forward Jaylen Wells. He struggled last game against the Clippers, barely eclipsing double-digit DraftKings points, but in his previous four games, Wells averaged 18.3 points and 28.6 DraftKings points per game. Wells is projected to play over 30 minutes and has the fifth-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. Lineups will come preloaded with several Grizzlies players, and Wells is one of the best at the forward position.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The power forward position is another spot that is lacking star power, especially if Chet Holmgren is unable to play. He is currently questionable with an illness. He missed Saturday’s game due to illness, so he should be ready, but keep an eye on his status the closer we get to lock to make sure he is playing.
When Holmgren has played this season, he has been fantastic, averaging a career-high 17.3 points and nine rebounds per game. He is already two shy of his season-high double-doubles with 21 and has captured a double-double in seven of his last five games, with two other games with nine rebounds.
Holmgren has only played one game against the Nuggets, but in that game he was a monster with 15 points, 21 rebounds, and three blocks. He posted a season-high 55.2 DraftKings points. If Holmgren is able to play through his illness, he is another great contrarian option at his sub-5% projected ownership.
Value
Drawing the most ownership on the slate currently is Grizzlies’ big man Olivier-Maxence Prosper. He has been inconsistent recently but has also popped with ceiling performances that make him one of the best tournament plays on the slate. He has eclipsed 33 DraftKings points in two of his last five games, with one game in between recording only eight DraftKings points. He is a feast-or-famine value option at $5,000.
Prosper has power forward and center eligibility, making him easy to fit into all lineup builds. The matchup against the Nets is what separates Prosper from his peers. The Nets rank 26th in both points allowed in the paint per game and rebounding percentage. Prosper will flirt with another double-double in this spot.
Our NBA model has Prosper projected to play 33 minutes tonight, which makes his projected Plus/Minus skyrocket over everyone else. His usage rate remains slightly below 20%, but his optimal lineup rate at 76.1% is impossible to ignore. Prosper is a near lock in cash games and an incredible tournament option.
Fast Break
Staying with the Grizzlies’ frontcourt, GG Jackson is yet another player on this team drawing over 30% projected ownership. Shockingly, Jackson has the highest projected ceiling at the power forward position and is only $6,400. In the month of February, Jackson averaged 16.5 points per game while shooting 57.5% from the field and 48.8% from downtown with four 20-point games. His rebounding numbers have fluctuated, but his scoring has been consistent, making him a fantastic mid-range option on this slate.
Kyle Filipowski has put together back-to-back huge performances, averaging 17 points, 12.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, two blocks, and 47.7 DraftKings points per game. It is his second time in the last two months where Filipowski had back-to-back points and rebounds double-doubles. With Lauri Markkanen out for the foreseeable future, Filipowski will continue to play sizable minutes for the Jazz. His ceiling is slightly lower than Jackson and Holmgren, but Filipowski is still worth getting exposure to in tournaments tonight.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
All the Grizzlies’ salary savers allow for the ability to roster one of the league’s best fantasy producers in Nikola Jokic. He has by far the highest projected ceiling on the slate and is averaging 30.1 points, 13.4 rebounds, 9.1 assists, and 66.2 DraftKings points per game in his last seven games. He is the pay-up play.
Jokic has only played one game against the Thunder this season, and it was the overtime thriller where the Nuggets lost by six. In that game, Jokic erupted for a 23-point, 17-rebound, 14-assist triple-double, capturing over 70 DraftKings points. With Jamal Murray listed as questionable, this could be the Jokic show.
Jokic could also benefit if Holmgren is out for the Thunder. They are already without Isaiah Hartenstein and Jalen Williams, making their frontcourt pretty weak. Jokic could have a field day against the Thunder tonight. He is the premier option to spend money on and is only drawing 20% projected ownership.
Value
Nic Claxton has been a consistent fantasy producer recently despite the Nets’ struggles and has the upside to post ceiling games if he can stay out of foul trouble. Since the start of February, Claxton is averaging 12.5 points and 26.8 DraftKings points per game. He has splashed his ceiling during that time with one 40-point and one 50-point game. Claxton has proven to be a double-double threat this season.
Claxton will draw a matchup against the Grizzlies that has gotten much easier throughout the season. Since the All-Star break, the Grizzlies rank last in rebounding percentage at 44.5%. Claxton has been scoring great, so if he can capture double-digit rebounds, he could easily get a double-double tonight.
Claxton is projected for close to 40% ownership, but it is warranted given the improved matchup and not having to play alongside Michael Porter Jr., who is injured. The Grizzlies also are allowing 59.3 points per game in the paint in their last three games, which is the third-worst in the league over that time.
Fast Break
Karl-Anthony Towns continues to be a dominant force in the paint for the Knicks. He has captured a points and rebounds double-double in six straight games. During that stretch, Towns is averaging 18.2 points, 14.2 rebounds, and 42 DraftKings points per game. The best part is Towns has not even shot the ball that great over that time. If his shot starts to fall, especially from the perimeter, Towns is going to be a solid play even at his elevated salary. It helps that Towns is drawing less than 10% projected ownership.
Danny Wolf is another player with power forward and center eligibility that has spiked randomly when the matchup is right. Wolf had 23 points, nine rebounds, and five assists just six days ago, going for a career-high 46.8 DraftKings points. The rookie is starting to find his groove and can shine at his $4,500 price tag. He has recorded over 22 DraftKings points in four of his last six games but does have a low floor. Wolf won’t compare that well to the Grizzlies’ value but is still worth getting exposure to tonight.
Pictured: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Photo Credit: Imagn
