Monday features a four-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
We only have four games to choose from on Monday, so we don’t have quite as many options as usual. That feels particularly true at point guard. It’s normally one of the strongest positions from a stud standpoint, but there aren’t a ton of quality high-priced options on Monday.
Jamal Murray is the priciest option on the slate, and he owns the top projections at the position in our NBA Models. The Nuggets will be on the second leg of a back-to-back, but they do benefit from one of the best matchups in fantasy. They’re taking on the Jazz, who currently rank dead last in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets own a massive 127.25 implied team total, which is the top mark on the slate by nearly eight full points.
The Nuggets are also still dealing with a few key absences. Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson have yet to return to the lineup, and Murray has had to carry a large workload in their absence. He’s averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s played at least 38.8 minutes in back-to-back games.
Value
Sticking with the Nuggets, Bruce Brown should also be asked to help pick up the slack. He’s seen a healthy number of minutes in recent games, logging at least 27.6 minutes in four straight. Brown is projected for another 28 minutes on Monday, making him a solid value option at just $4,300. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.19 (per the Trends tool).
Brown hasn’t exactly taken advantage of his increased workload, posting a negative Plus/Minus in three of his past four games. However, perhaps a matchup vs. the Jazz will change things. He ranks second at the position in projected Plus/Minus, and his ownership projection is pretty reasonable for a four-game slate.
Fast Break
The Rockets are another team with a quality matchup on Monday, as long as things don’t get out of hand too quickly. They’re listed as 15.5-point favorites vs. the Wizards, and they rank second on the slate in implied team total. Amen Thompson hasn’t been a particularly strong source of value recently, but that’s caused his price tag to dip to $7,900. That results in an 86% Bargain Rating, and he’s coming off more than 41 DraftKings points in his last outing.
Kevin Porter Jr. continues to have to carry the load for the Giannis Antetokounmpo-less Bucks. He’s averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark among Monday’s point guards. He also leads the position with 12 Pro Trends, while his $8,700 price tag comes with a 95% Bargain Rating. Porter has failed to return value in his past two games, but before that, he posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his previous nine. He has some bounce-back appeal vs. the Celtics.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Warriors are another team dealing with some massive absences at the moment. Jimmy Butler is out for the rest of the year, and Steph Curry and Kristaps Porzingis will join him on the sidelines on Monday.
That leaves Brandin Podziemski as one of the team’s primary offensive options. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.25% with all three players (and Jonathan Kuminga) off the floor this season, as well as a team-high +3.91% bump to his assist rate. Add it all up, and Podziemski has increased his production to 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in that split.
Podziemski has also been on a bit of a roll recently. He failed to return value in the team’s last game – a blowout loss to the Lakers – but he had a positive Plus/Minus in his four previous contests. That includes a game with more than 53 DraftKings points, giving him plenty of upside at his current salary.
Value
Reed Sheppard stands out as one of the strongest options of the day, regardless of position. He’s been an excellent per-minute contributor for the Rockets all season, but he’s been thrust into a larger workload in recent games. He’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 31.5 minutes in our NBA Models.
Sheppard has posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games, and he’s scored at least 39.75 DraftKings points in two of his past three. That gives him an excellent combination of value and upside. His price tag has yet to reflect his increased role, and he commands one of the top optimal lineup rates in Sim Labs.
Fast Break
Julian Strawther is another player who has seen an uptick in opportunities for the Nuggets. He’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 26 minutes Monday vs. the Jazz. His playing time has been volatile – he’s played as many as 29.3 and as few as 15.2 minutes across his past five games – but he’s a good bet to return value if he gets towards the high end of that range.
Elijah Harkless is an intriguing value play for the Jazz. He’s been a strong per-minute contributor over the past month, averaging 1.09 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s logged 20.5 and 28.1 minutes across his past two games. He’s responded with 32.75 and 28.25 DraftKings points in those outings, and he remains very affordable at just $3,900.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Small forward is one of the stronger positions on this slate, with three big-name options to choose from. However, Kawhi Leonard stands out as the strongest of the bunch. He’s the best pure value, owning a 97% Bargain Rating, and he’s been the most productive on a per-minute basis. He’s averaged 1.48 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark at the position.
Leonard wasn’t really needed in the team’s win over the Magic on Sunday, but he has carried an expanded workload following the trade deadline. The team traded away both James Harden and Ivica Zubac, and Leonard has increased his usage rate to a whopping 39.24% with both players off the floor this season. He’s averaged 1.57 DraftKings points per minute in that split, so he has plenty of upside as long as he stays healthy and available for the end of the season.
Value
Tim Hardaway Jr. has also seen an uptick in opportunities for the shorthanded Nuggets of late. He’s played at least 33.3 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five.
Hardaway is projected for another 30 minutes on Monday’s slate, which should be more than enough for him to return value. Players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.00, and Hardaway has personally averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.73 in that split. He ranks first at the position in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s third in that metric on the entire slate.
Fast Break
Perhaps Kevin Durant’s “burner tweets” have awoken his offense. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of six games since the All-Star break, and he’s had at least 54.75 DraftKings points in three of them. That gives him comparable upside to Leonard and Jaylen Brown, but he’s available at a slight discount compared to those guys. He’s also projected for roughly 10% fewer ownership than Leonard, so he’s an interesting pivot.
The Wizards have transitioned into playing for the future, and Bilal Coulibaly remains a part of that equation. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, and he’s scored at least 30.0 DraftKings points in two of his past four. He’s averaged a healthy 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his $4,800 price tag comes with a 98% Bargain Rating. Coulibaly still isn’t playing a ton of minutes – he’s projected for 23 vs. the Rockets – but that’s enough for him to potentially return value.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The Jazz have already been fined for tanking this season, but that’s not going to stop them from setting their sights on a top pick in the upcoming draft. Their current injury report features most of their frontcourt rotation, with Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jusuf Nurkic, and Kevin Love all listed as out.
That opens the door for Kyle Filipowski to take on a larger role. That’s an appealing prospect for fantasy purposes. Filipowski is an absolute stud on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.32 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Filipowski played just under 30 minutes in his last outing, and while he disappointed in that contest, it gives him plenty of upside moving forward.
Value
Will Riley is another player who has gotten a few additional opportunities for the Wizards of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s in a great spot to do it again on Monday. He’s currently projected for 30.5 minutes, and he’s averaged a very healthy 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Only Hardaway has a better projected Plus/Minus at the position, and Riley has a bit more upside.
Fast Break
Gui Santos finally posted a dud in his last game, snapping one of the quietest value streaks in fantasy. Before that, he had posted a positive Plus/Minus in 12 straight games. He should continue to see plenty of minutes for the shorthanded Warriors, and he’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Alperen Sengun has dual PF/C eligibility on DraftKings, which increases his viability. He doesn’t have to compete with the same caliber of players at power forward, and Sengun has the top ceiling and median projections at the position by nearly 10 points. He hasn’t been particularly good of late, but we know what he’s capable of.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
We don’t typically need an invitation to play Nikola Jokic in DFS, but we have one at the moment. Even with him struggling with his jump shot a bit of late, he’s still been a monster with Gordon and Watson out of the picture. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five outings, including games of 70.25, 71.25, and 91.5 DraftKings points.
Jokic has the potential to absolutely erupt in this spot against the Jazz. They’ve been a weak defensive team all season, and they’re even weaker than usual with all of their usual center options out of the lineup. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.81 in this matchup, which is one of the best marks at the position.
Jokic ultimately leads all players in ceiling projection by a wide margin, and he’s first in projected Plus/Minus at center. That’s a tough combination to avoid, even at $12,500.
Value
Tristan Vukcevic has been an elite per-minute producer basically since stepping on an NBA floor. He’s averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should see a solid handful of minutes on Monday. The team is currently without a bunch of key contributors, and Vukcevic is projected for 20 minutes in our NBA Models.
However, Vukcevic is also listed as questionable for this matchup. Make sure to monitor this situation heading into tip-off. If he’s unable to go, it would open up even more playing time for guys like Riley, Coulibaly, and Justin Champagne.
Fast Break
Neemias Queta has been a steady producer for the Celtics all season, and he’s coming off a monster performance in his last outing. He finished with 60.75 DraftKings points in just 27.3 minutes vs. the 76ers. While that’s clearly an outlier, Queta has averaged a strong 1.20 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s projected for 25 minutes on Monday’s slate, putting him squarely on the radar at $5,200.
Draymond Green is clearly on the backside of his career, but he’s still capable of putting together a big game from time to time. He had 45.5 DraftKings points vs. the Spurs last week, falling just two assists shy of a triple-double.
Pictured: Nikola Jokic
Photo Credit: Imagn
