Sandwiched between gigantic slates on Wednesday and Friday of this week, Thursday’s NBA slate is a limited two-game showcase. In the early game, the Bucks visit the Spurs, followed by the Nuggets heading to Golden State to take on the Warriors. Only the Bucs are playing for the second night in a row, but the Nuggets and Warriors return to action on Friday as part of the 28-team Friday night extravaganza.
Especially for the Bucks playing for a second day in a row, but all the teams have a few injuries to keep an eye on as we lead up to tip-off. Be sure to refresh the NBA Models throughout the day for the latest adjustments and monitor the news hub for status updates.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
In a dream matchup against the Spurs, Damian Lillard has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all point guards on Thursday’s slate. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the highest Pts/Sal on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Even though he’s not cheap, he projects to be an outstanding value.
The Bucks have the highest implied team total on the board Thursday, and their game with the Spurs has the higher over/under of the two contests by a 15-point margin.
Lillard comes into this good environment off a 23-point performance in Wednesday’s loss to the Pacers. The Bucks dropped back-to-back games to Indiana to start 2024 and will look to get back on track against the Spurs.
Over his last 10 games, Dame has dropped 1.22 DraftKings points and 1.19 FanDuel points per minute while playing 35.0 minutes per game with a 27.2% usage rate that is second on the team behind Giannis Antetokounmpo. No team in the NBA has been more generous to opposing point guards, so Lillard should be in a smashable get-right spot on Thursday.
Value
Lillard is an awesome value, but if you need a cheaper play, check out Tre Jones. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he has been a solid contributor to the Spurs’ second unit.
With Malakhi Branham (ankle) doubtful, Jones could be lined up for an increased role in the Spurs backcourt. With Branham off the floor, Jones has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points and 0.86 FanDuel points per minute this season. Our projections have Jones logging 28 minutes with a 16.7% usage rate in this contest.
He is typically more of a creator than a shot-taker, but he has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last five games while averaging 0.87 DraftKings points and 0.87 FanDuel points per minute.
Fast Break
Jamal Murray has been great for the Nuggets lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in five of his last six games in DFS contests. Since December 20, he has averaged 1.44 DraftKings points and 1.41 FanDuel points per minute and taken on a 29.5% usage. His salary has climbed, and he’s a little limited by the slower game environment, but he’s still a strong alternative to Dame on this small slate.
The Warriors started Chris Paul in each of their last two games. He had a throwback game with 24 points and six assists last Saturday but returned to earth with just 12 points and four assists on Tuesday. He still has a high ceiling in a starting role but is very volatile from game to game.
If you need to go with a bargain, Cameron Payne is the best cheap flier on FanDuel since he has taken over as backup point guard. If the Bucks blow out the Spurs, he could get some garbage time production. He’s also an option on DraftKings along with his teammate Andre Jackson Jr., who has added point guard eligibility on that site.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Devin Vassell has shown flashes of upside for the Spurs this season but has struggled with consistency along with the rest of his young teammates. He had four straight games with at least 17 points before scoring just 11 points on Tuesday, but he should be able to bounce back in this good spot against the Bucks.
Vassell has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel. He brings the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of shooting guards on FanDuel and ranks second in those projections on DraftKings, behind only Stephen Curry.
Over the last 10 games, no player on the Spurs has played more minutes than Vassell (32.5), and he has a solid 22.8% usage rate. He has produced 1.02 DraftKings points and 1.02 FanDuel points per minute over that span, scoring 20+ points five times, including a memorable 36-point performance against the Lakers. His ceiling is enough to make him stand out on this small slate.
Value
The Bucks have been starting Malik Beasley at shooting guard most of the season, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings. Beasley is a streaky shooter who doesn’t always get a ton of usage depending on the game flow, but he has had a few big games when his shot heats up.
Beasley produced 12+ points in three straight games before being held to just eight points on Wednesday. Our projections have him in line for 34.0 minutes on Thursday, and with that kind of workload, he should be able to return solid value.
Fast Break
Brandin Podziemski has returned to the bench for the last two games for the Warriors, but he has still managed to score double-digit points in six straight games and eight of his last nine. The rookie still played 29 minutes in each contest and is a solid midrange option. In his last nine games, he has produced 1.05 DraftKings points and 1.00 FanDuel points per minute. He doesn’t have the high ceiling of his teammate Klay Thompson, but he has actually been the more consistent contributor lately.
Christian Braun and Marjon Beauchamp stand out as cheap options with upside, especially if they absorb some extra minutes and usage. Beauchamp has double-digit points in two of his last three games and has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on DraftKings.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
You know it’s a small slate when Keldon Johnson and Michael Porter Jr. are the top two small forward plays to decide between. Johnson has better projections across the board and specifically comes with a significantly higher floor projection. Johnson moved to the bench just before Christmas, but he scored at least 15 points in four of his five outings off the bench and continues to get plenty of minutes and usage.
Over his last 10 games, he has produced 1.08 DraftKings points and 1.02 FanDuel points per minute while averaging 31.2 minutes and a 26.2% usage rate. He went off for 29 points, seven boards, and seven assists last Friday and has a similar ceiling on Thursday. Especially since he’s in a better game environment, I give him a slight edge over MPJ.
Value
It has been a rough season for Andrew Wiggins, but like Johnson, he has been able to find some success coming off the bench. He has a 76% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and ranks in the top four in Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings.
Wiggins has scored double-digit points in six of his last seven games and has produced 1.00 DraftKings points and 1.00 FanDuel points per minute during that span. It’s definitely not a full turnaround and way too soon to call it a comeback, but at least there are signs of life with Wiggins and the potential for good value at just over $5,000.
Fast Break
Khris Middleton will be an important player to watch for news on this Thursday. He has not played both ends of a back-to-back all season, so he is likely to not be available. If he is, he’ll be in the mix with Johnson and MPJ as the top plays on the board, depending on who else is available.
Also, for the Bucks, Beasley and Beauchamp (discussed under shooting guards) are good value options that could deliver big games, especially if Middleton or Pat Connaughton are not available.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
As usual, Giannis Antetokoumpo brings the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection on the entire slate. On both DraftKings and FanDuel, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal on the whole slate, behind only Lillard.
On the season, Giannis is producing an insane 1.67 DraftKings points and 1.64 FanDuel points per minute, but he’s actually been trending up with 1.80 DraftKings points and 1.76 FanDuel points per minute over his last 10 games. He has exceeded his lofty salary-based expectations in seven straight games on FanDuel and six of those seven games on DraftKings. He also has eight double-doubles in his last nine games, along with two triple-doubles and five games with at least 30 points during that span.
In his matchup with the Spurs last month, Giannis had a triple-double of 11 points, 14 rebounds, and 16 assists in just 34 minutes. He should be able to stack up a good stat line in this rematch with the potential to absolutely go off and break the slate if the Spurs keep things relatively competitive.
Value
Filling in for the suspended Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on DraftKings and the fifth-highest at the position on FanDuel. He has an 88% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, but on FanDuel, he does bring added small forward eligibility.
Kuminga moved into the starting lineup 10 games ago and has scored double-digit points in 13 straight games dating back to even before his promotion. In those 13 games, he has produced 1.04 DraftKings points and 1.03 FanDuel points per minute in 25.4 minutes per game.
In his last six games, Kuminga has exceeded salary-based expectations four times, including in his most recent game on Tuesday when he had 19 points, six rebounds, and four assists in a win over the Magic.
Fast Break
Victor Wembanyama remains in a high-usage, high-ceiling role for the Spurs. He hit that ceiling with 30 points, six boards, and six assists against Portland in a rare Spurs win last Thursday but has fallen short of salary-based expectations in each of his two games since. He has a very high ceiling but is high-risk at his price point.
Bobby Portis has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel and could end up a great play, depending on the game script in San Antonio. He often puts up big numbers in blowouts and could even step in as a starter, depending on who is available.
At power forward, there aren’t many options cheaper than Kuminga, who show well in our projections. The best bargain option on DraftKings is Pat Connaughton, and the best on FanDuel projects to be Cedi Osman or Dominick Barlow of the Spurs.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
While his projections aren’t quite as high as Giannis’s, Nikola Jokic always shows well in our projections, and he claims the top spot across the board at center on this small slate. He has actually had a few down games lately, but this spot against the Warriors should be a good bounce-back opportunity for him.
Jokic had 26 points, 14 rebounds, and eight assists against the Warriors on Christmas and 35 points against them in early November. Despite a few down games, he is still producing 1.80 DraftKings points and 1.74 FanDuel points per minute on the season.
He also matches 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, tied for the most on the slate.
Value
The Warriors have been getting good work from rookie Trayce Jackson-Davis over the past couple of weeks. He moved into the starting lineup two games ago and has continued posting good numbers. In his first start, he had 17 points and six rebounds in 29 minutes, and he followed that up with 10 points and four boards in 23 minutes.
Jackson-Davis has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on FanDuel and the fourth-highest at the position on DraftKings. He has produced 1.24 DraftKings points and 1.23 FanDuel points per minute over his last eight games and is a solid value option even though he has to try and slow down Jokic on the defensive end.
Fast Break
On DraftKings, Brook Lopez has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at center aside from Giannis. He has a 93% Bargain Rating on DraftKings as well, making him a solid midrange play to consider on that site even though he’s priced a little too high on FanDuel.
Wemby gets most of the minutes at center for the Spurs, but behind him, there is some value to be had from Sandro Mamukelashvili and Dominick Barlow. Barlow has been getting more minutes lately and doing good work on the glass. He’s solely a power forward on FanDuel and a center on DraftKings.
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