The NBA starts 2024 with a seven-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Of the 14 teams in the player pool, the Suns are the only team playing for the second day in a row after dispatching the Magic to wrap up 2023. The Hornets start the new year with a back-to-back that starts on Monday in Denver and finishes on Tuesday in Sacramento.
As is normal at this point of the season, there are multiple important injuries to monitor because they have the potential to change up the slate. Be sure to refresh the NBA Models throughout the day for the latest adjustments and monitor the news hub for status updates.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
There are two outstanding point guard studs on this slate who both make great options to build around. They’re both very expensive, but our projections have both Luka Doncic and Tyrese Haliburton exceeding salary-based expectations. Each stands out as one of the top pay-up plays on the slate, but Doncic is questionable with a quad injury along with Kyrie Irving (quad), who has missed 10 games. If both play, Kyrie could take usage from Luka, who could also be limited due to his own injury. As a result, Haliburton is a better play on this slate until we have more clarity on Luka’s usage.
Haliburton and the Pacers have the second-highest implied team total on the slate, behind only the Bucks on the other side of this matchup, which has the highest over/under by a significant margin of 14 points. Haliburton comes into this good game situation with the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of all point guards aside from Doncic. He also ranks in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Haliburton has heated up lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in four straight games. He’s coming off of back-to-back games with 20+ assists and scored over 20 points in each of his last four. Bruce Brown (knee) missed those four games and is doubtful for this contest.
On the season, Haliburton has averaged 1.57 DraftKings points and 1.48 FanDuel points per minute, and over his last four games, he has cranked that up to 1.71 DraftKings points and 1.64 FanDuel points per minute. His matchup with Milwaukee is actually a good one and should give him another chance to shine as one of the NBA’s biggest breakout stars of the season.
Value
The top Projected Plus/Minus at point guard and shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel comes from Bradley Beal. Beal is still relatively affordable after his multiple injuries have limited him to just eight games this season. He has great upside as part of the Suns’ new “Big Three” and showed his tantalizing ceiling by making 10-of-13 shots on Sunday night against Orlando to finish with 25 points in 35 minutes.
He is on the back half of a back-to-back, so be sure he’s a full go when the Suns’ injury report is released. If he is, he’ll be a great value in this home matchup with the Trail Blazers. He has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points and 0.93 FanDuel points per minute in his limited action this season but has a sky-high ceiling in his projection of 33.5 minutes.
Fast Break
If Luka Doncic plays and Kyrie Irving does not or is limited, he’ll be hard to fade. Doncic has scored at least 39 points in four straight games and averaged an insane 1.84 DraftKings points and 1.68 FanDuel points per minute while playing 40 minutes per game in December. If available, he remains an elite pay-up play.
The Nuggets have the highest pace differential on the slate in a smash spot at home against the Hornets, who rank last in the NBA in defensive rating. Jamaal Murray should be a great option in this spot and has a top-four Projected Plus/Minus at point guard. He finished 2023 on a nice run, averaging 1.40 DraftKings points and 1.36 FanDuel points per minute over his last six games.
If Brown is ruled out for the Pacers as expected, Andrew Nembhard will likely get another start and remain a strong value. He averaged 23.94 DraftKings points and 22.55 FanDuel points per game in his first four starts in place of Brown, with an 18.5% usage rate. Of all the point guards under $6,000, Nembhard has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
After missing four games due to illness, Donovan Mitchell jumped right back into a high-usage role for the Cavs, who remain without Darius Garland (jaw) and Evan Mobley (knee). He had 31.0% usage in 36 minutes in his return and finished with 34 points, nine assists and four rebounds while helping the Cavs stay close to the Bucks on Friday.
Against the new-look Raptors, Spida has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at shooting guard on DraftKings and FanDuel. He has a 90% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and matches 10 Pro Trends on both sites. He should continue to get high usage and bring a high ceiling for Cleveland as long as he’s carrying more work with other stars sidelined.
Mitchell has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last eight games while averaging 1.35 DraftKings points and 1.30 FanDuel points per minute.
Value
Khris Middleton has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings and the third-highest at the position on FanDuel. The veteran has been ramping up over his last 10 games and has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points and 1.13 FanDuel points per minute while playing 33.4 minutes per game.
Middleton is coming off back-to-back double-doubles with 10+ assists and has at least five assists in four straight games. He and the Bucks get a great matchup against the Pacers, and Middleton brings an elite ceiling at a salary below the top-tier options at this position.
Fast Break
The Trail Blazers will be extremely short-handed for their matchup against the Suns with Anfernee Simons (illness) and Deandre Ayton (knee) already ruled out and Shaedon Sharpe (groin) questionable. Over his last four games, Malcolm Brogdon has had to step into a much larger role to compensate for all the absences and has outperformed salary-based expectations while playing over 36 minutes three times and posting 1.29 DraftKings points and 1.24 FanDuel points per minute.
There is a large salary disparity between DraftKings and FanDuel for several midrange shooting guards. Caris LeVert has a 94% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he brings a high ceiling for just under $6,000. On FanDuel, Jalen Green has a 93% Bargain Rating in the same price range and brings a high ceiling as his Rockets try to keep the Pistons from winning two straight.
If he makes his debut in his new role with the Raptors, Immanuel Quickley could be one of the best values on the board. There’s risk since we haven’t seen him with his new team and he may work in gradually, but if he’s in the starting lineup or a prominent role off the bench, he could be a great option. On the season, he is averaging 0.98 DraftKings points and 0.96 FanDuel points per minute. If the new Raptors don’t play, Gary Trent Jr. will be a great value play.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Lauri Markkanen has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel. He has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position on DraftKings and the third-highest across the board on FanDuel. He and the Jazz host the Mavericks in the game with the second-highest over/under on the board.
Markkanen is coming off a rough game vs. the Heat on Saturday in which he was limited by foul trouble and a sub-par shooting night. Before that 12-point letdown, he had produced 24+ points and 9+ rebounds in four straight contests to exceed salary-based expectations. In his last six games, Markkanen averaged 1.37 DraftKings points and 1.31 FanDuel points per minute.
Depending on who exactly Dallas has available, this should be a good spot for Markkanen to bounce back and start the new year off with a big home game.
Value
The Pistons finally got a win to snap their historic losing streak, and now they head to Houston looking to build some positive momentum. Bojan Bogdanovic has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings and the third-highest at the position on FanDuel.
In his last four games, he has played a team-high 158 minutes with a 24.1% usage rate. He produced 0.89 DraftKings points and 0.81 FanDuel points per minute over that stretch, exceeding salary-based expectations on each site in three of his last four games. Bogdanovic scored at least 17 points in each of those four games and typically contributes solid non-scoring numbers as well.
The veteran forward and Cade Cunningham should continue to carry most of the workload for the Pistons and bring good upside in a rotation with limited scoring options.
Fast Break
While the Raptors hope their trade provides him with some backcourt help, Scottie Barnes should continue to be the focus of the team’s offense. Barnes has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection at small forward on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel behind only Kevin Durant. Barnes has produced 1.50 DraftKings points and 1.46 FanDuel points per minute, with a 27.2% usage rate over his last nine games.
With Gordon Hayward (calf) out, Brandon Miller and Cody Martin become interesting options for the Hornets in Denver. Miller has scored 14+ points in each of his last 10 games except his last matchup against the Nuggets, which he was forced to leave early due to injury. He’s off the injury report now, though, and has a good ceiling from his mid-range price point.
According to Projected Plus/Minus, the top bargain options under $5,000 at small forward are Bennedict Mathurin and Kris Dunn on DraftKings and Isaac Okoro and Matisse Thybulle on FanDuel.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Behind only Luka and Nikola Jokic (discussed below), Giannis Antetokoumpo has the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projection on Monday’s entire slate. He’s a much better deal on DraftKings, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating and is more affordable at a position with less depth than Doncic or Jokic.
On the season, Giannis has produced 1.66 DraftKings points and 1.63 FanDuel points per minute, but over his last 10 games, he has been even better, averaging 1.71 DraftKings points and 1.68 FanDuel points per minute and logging almost 36 minutes per game.
He and the Bucks have faced the Pacers three times this season, and Giannis has posted three double-doubles with 54 points in one of those games and a season-high 64 points in their most recent matchup on Dec. 13. It’s a great matchup for him. And he should be able to go off and put up another huge stat line to start 2024.
Value
The Pacers moved Aaron Nesmith and Jalen Smith into their starting lineup for their last three games, and both have been nice additions to Haliburton’s squad. Nesmith has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games by averaging 0.95 DraftKings points and 0.95 FanDuel points per minute and playing 27.7 minutes per game.
Nesmith made a season-high seven three-pointers in Saturday’s win over the Knicks and had 25 points. He has that kind of ceiling in this contest with the Bucks as well, and his more typical 10-to-15 points usually come with enough non-scoring stats to make him a solid midrange target when the Pacers are in a potentially high-scoring matchup like this one.
Fast Break
Kevin Durant is the other big name on the slate at power forward and is coming off 31 points on Sunday night against the Magic. He, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal have to divide up the usage in Phoenix, but they all come with high ceilings in any matchup. Beal is much cheaper due to his recent injury issues, but if you have the salary, Durant’s ceiling is also extremely high. He’s a little bit better deal on FanDuel than DraftKings.
The Trail Blazers will have to rely heavily on Jerami Grant in their New Year’s Day matchup with the Suns, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel and the third-highest at the position on DraftKings. Grant and the Blazers split a back-to-back with the Spurs to finish 2023. In their first meeting, Grant had 29 points and 10 rebounds and followed that up with 27 points and six boards the following night. In the three games he has played with Simons and Ayton sidelined, Grant’s production has jumped to 1.19 DraftKings points and 1.10 FanDuel points per minute, and he has averaged 37.3 minutes per game.
Jabari Walker has emerged as a good value option at forward for the Blazers as well. He had 25 points and nine boards on Friday vs. the Spurs and has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games, helping to fill in the Portland frontcourt.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets lost last Friday to the Thunder and will look to take out their frustration on the defensively challenged Hornets. Jokic still had a double-double in the loss and only played 31.3 minutes. His numbers have dipped a little bit lately since Murray has returned to handle some of the workload, but he is still averaging 1.81 DraftKings points and 1.75 FanDuel points per minute on the season.
Jokic has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on the entire slate behind only Luka, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any player on the slate at DraftKings, where he has a 90% Bargain Rating and a +3.19 Opponents Plus/Minus. It’s a good pace-up spot for the Nuggets against Charlotte, and Jokic has a very high ceiling as a result. One of his signature triple-doubles definitely seems within reach.
Value
If you can’t afford to spend up for The Joker, Alperen Sengun has been excellent for the Rockets and comes into a great matchup with the Pistons with plenty of momentum. Sengun has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on the slate on DraftKings.
Sengun has at least 22 points in five straight games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of those contests by producing an impressive 1.62 DraftKings points and 1.59 FanDuel points per minute. He added eight assists and seven rebounds on Friday in his most recent game before fouling out vs. the 76ers.
He gets a great matchup against the Pistons and allows a more balanced roster construction since he comes at such a huge discount compared to Jokic.
Fast Break
Jarrett Allen has posted three straight impressive double-doubles, producing 1.64 DraftKings points and 1.61 FanDuel points per minute over that short span. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in seven of his last 10 games and has a top-five Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Hornets continue to list Mark Williams (back) as doubtful, so Nick Richards has been stepping into a larger role. He exceeded salary-based expectations in three of four games, producing 0.9 DraftKings points and 0.9 FanDuel points per minute. He played 38 minutes against Jokic and the Nuggets in December and finished with 12 points and 15 boards.
Jalen Smith has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the options under $5,000 on FanDuel, where he has an 87% Bargain Rating. Smith has added power forward eligibility on DraftKings as well and is a solid bargain play with upside.
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