The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
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Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Memphis Grizzlies – $12,000 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel
Luka Doncic has posted back-to-back games with over 70+ DraftKings points. In those two games, Doncic is averaging 41 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 8.5 assists per game while shooting an impressive 58% from the field and 48% from deep. Last game, he made a career-high nine 3-pointers! His salary continues to rise, but Doncic is proving to be worth every penny.
The Mavericks are rolling with a record of 2-0, while the Grizzlies could not have started worse at 0-3. They are desperately missing Ja Morant and Steven Adams, as their Net Rating is -5.5, which ranks 22nd in the league. This new-look Mavericks pace of 104.25 ranks fifth and provides an added uptick to Doncic’s upside. There are several expensive studs on this slate, but Doncic is averaging nearly 20 more DraftKings points per game than his peers, which needs to be taken into account.
Top Value: Dennis Schroder vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $5,900 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Dennis Schroder has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first three games on DraftKings and comes in under $6,000 tonight. Schroder has a double-double in back-to-back games for the Raptors and is averaging 15.7 points, nine assists, and 36.1 DraftKings points per game this season. He has taken the starting point guard position and ran with it.
It is hard to envision the Trail Blazers winning many games this season as they have started 0-3 and have the worst Net Rating in the league. Their 28th ranked Defensive Rating is a big reason why they are nearly double-digit underdogs. The Raptors may be playing without OG Anunoby, which will only add more usage to go around for Schroder. Expect the lightning-quick point guard to have a field day against the young Trail Blazers guards and threat for another double-double.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry at New Orleans Pelicans – $9,900 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
Priced at $9,900 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Stephen Curry has already displayed his upside with 41 points in the Warriors’ second game of the season. The sharp-shooter is already averaging 5.7 made 3-pointers per game while shooting 44.7% from distance. Curry has a team-high 30.5% usage rate, as he is averaging over 30 points per game this season.
Curry has proven to be matchup-proof, so despite the Pelicans leading the league thus far in Defensive Rating, Curry is still a player worth getting exposure to in tournaments. With an under 5% projected ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Curry is an elite tournament pay-up option when looking to get different. In his only game against the Pelicans last season, Curry recorded a near triple-double with 30 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists while making eight 3-pointers.
Top Value: Spencer Dinwiddie at Charlotte Hornets – $6,100 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
After struggling considerably in the season opener, Spencer Dinwiddie bounced back last game in a big way with 23 points and eight assists. He went 8-for-17 from the field, including six 3-pointers against the Mavericks. The Nets will continue to play without Nic Claxton tonight, and they also lost Cameron Johnson for at least the next 10 days with a calf injury.
With Claxton and Johnson off the floor this season, Dinwiddie has played 44 total minutes and has a team-high +11.15 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a +2.74% usage rate. Minimal sample size, but Dinwiddie is the clear beneficiary without these two on the floor. The Hornets rank second in the league in pace, which is why this total has jumped to 228 points tonight. Expect an up-tempo game environment with a plethora of opportunities for Dinwiddie to outperform his rather cheap salary.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Washington Wizards – $10,500 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel
Jayson Tatum burst onto the scene in the season opener with a 34-point, 11-rebound double-double performance but then struggled shooting against the Knicks last game. Tatum still leads this star-studded Celtics roster in usage rate at 29.5% as he has attempted 22 field goals in back-to-back games. He may be projected for under 5% ownership most of the season.
After back-to-back games against the Heat and Knicks, a matchup against the Wizards has to be a sigh of relief. The Wizards lead the league in pace and have the fifth-worst Defensive Rating in the league. They are allowing 124.5 points per game and despite playing on the road, the Celtics are double-digit favorites.
Tatum is going to make an intriguing tournament option all season long until an injury surfaces on the Celtics. Prioritize him on FanDuel, where he has a 77% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Royce O’Neale at Charlotte Hornets – $4,300 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
Another Nets player who will benefit from the absence of Nic Claxton and Cameron Johnson is forward Royce O’Neale. Priced under $4,500 on both sites, O’Neale is projected to be the most popular player on the slate. He had an 11-point, 10-rebound double-double last game in 34 minutes. Projected to play 30 minutes, O’Neale looks fantastic in our NBA Model.
In O’Neale’s first season with the Nets last year, he averaged a career-high 8.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game. Getting 30+ minutes in this spot against the Hornets, it is hard to see him not paying off his cheap price tag. O’Neale has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and FanDuel. He fits perfectly in all lineup builds on this 11-game slate.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Miami Heat – $11,000 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
It was shocking to see the Bucks get run out of their own gym last night against the Hawks, but that won’t persuade anyone from going right back to Giannis Antetokounmpo in this spot. The Bucks are a 5.5-point home favorite against the Heat, who have lost back-to-back road games. Despite only playing 29 minutes last night, Giannis stuffed the stat sheet with a double-double on 26 points and 11 rebounds, including three assists, two blocks, and one steal. He is still the Greek Freak.
Khris Middleton is expected back for the Bucks tonight after missing the last game. That may hinder Giannis’ upside a little bit, but not enough. The big news in this matchup is the status of Heat center Bam Adebayo. He is questionable to play, and if he misses, that would make this spot even better for Giannis, as Adebayo is one of the best defensive centers in the league.
Top Value: Jalen Johnson vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $6,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Jalen Johnson is once again popping as a fantastic value play for the Hawks. Johnson drew the first start of the season over Saddiq Bey last night and did not disappoint with 14 points and seven assists despite dealing with foul trouble. It was Johnson’s third-straight game scoring double figure points and grabbing at least seven rebounds. The third-year pro is expected to play nearly 30 minutes tonight against the Timberwolves in the highest-scoring projected total on the slate.
The Hawks rank fourth in pace to start the season, as the Timberwolves have shown a tendency to play fast in the past. Johnson has improved each season since coming into the league. Last game he knocked down two 3-pointers, which he only did seven times last year. Make sure he is starting again, but Johnson looks like a great value play to fit in the studs.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Utah Jazz – $11,800 DraftKings, $12,100 FanDuel
Nikola Jokic leads all centers on DraftKings with 10 Pro Trends in this matchup against the Utah Jazz. The Nuggets return home after back-to-back road games and are an eight-point favorite, implied for 118 points. Through three games this year, the Joker is already averaging 26.3 points, 13 rebounds, and 7.7 assists per game, with one triple-double on opening night.
The Jazz currently rank last in Defensive Rating, as they have allowed a league-high 124.7 points per game. Their opponents have been the Kings, Clippers, and Suns, and it won’t get much easier with the Nuggets tonight. Jokic has a great chance to flirt with another triple-double tonight and is expected to only come around 10% ownership. If value opens up throughout the day, Jokic will be one of the key beneficiaries. He is worth the expensive salary on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top Value: Onyeka Okongwu vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
For now, Clint Capela has done a great job of keeping Onyeka Okongwu from taking over his spot, but it feels like only a matter of time. Okongwu, who is much cheaper across the industry than Capela, looks like one of the best values on the slate. With the Timberwolves’ massive frontcourt, Okongwu will need to play more minutes. He is coming off his best game of the season last night with 14 points and seven rebounds. Okongwu has been getting more minutes in each game this season.
Okongwu has the highest projected ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel at the center position tonight. It seems as though the industry is paying down for Okongwu at center and up at different positions for the other studs. He is simply too cheap on this slate. He just signed a new contract extension, so Okongwu is in the Hawks’ future plans, and he will likely get his playing time increased throughout the year.
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