The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS on Monday, Mar. 21, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $12,000 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
The highest ceiling point guard by a comfortable margin is Luka Doncic. On FanDuel, the salary just doesn’t quite make sense, resulting in a 97% Bargain Rating. Doncic continues to lead the league in usage rate and field goal attempts per game, and he is averaging the most DraftKings points of anyone on the slate. He also averages 3.9 additional points per game at home.
The Mavericks have won eight of their last 11 games, but the Timberwolves are the hottest team since the All-Star Break. This is a massive pace-up spot as the Timberwolves play at the fastest pace in the league, while the Mavericks bring up the rear. Doncic leads the Mavericks in minutes, points, rebounds, assists, and steals this season and is the best pay-up option on the slate.
Top Value: Derrick White at Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Derrick White has not been all that good since arriving in Boston. However, it is tough to ignore him at this salary, especially when the Celtics are 15-point road favorites against the Thunder. White has recorded just one positive Plus/Minus game in his last 11 games. With the Celtics fully healthy, White is coming off the bench where he should see extra run in this wide-spread game.
White is popping as one of the strongest guard values in our Tournament Model tonight, despite his recent poor play. The Thunder have lost nine-straight games as they have allowed 110.9 points per game over that stretch. The Celtics have been rolling everyone lately, and tonight should be no exception. White is a cheap way to get exposure to the Celtics’ 115.5-point implied team total.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. Miami Heat – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
Another player who has struggled lately is James Harden, and he finished with just over 40 DraftKings points on his last outing. His DraftKings salary decreased following that performance, which gives him some buy-low appeal if he’s in the lineup. It’s possible that Harden or Joel Embiid gets the night off on the second leg of a back-to-back, so make sure to monitor the news before lineup lock.
This matchup against the Heat will be challenging as they rank in the top five of defensive rating and points allowed with 104.8 per game. This game should also feature minimal possessions, with the 76ers and Heat ranking in the bottom four of pace this season. Unsurprisingly, it has the lowest total on the slate at 215.5 points. However, Harden still has the highest ceiling among the shooting guards, even in this tough matchup.
Top Value: Alex Caruso vs. Toronto Raptors– $4,100 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
Like White, Alex Caruso has not been that good lately, and the Bulls are fully healthy minus Lonzo Ball. Using our On/Off Tool, Caruso has a +2.3% usage rate when Ball is off the floor this season in 422 minutes as a sample size. Tonight will be Caruso’s fifth game back from injury, and he has averaged 26.5 minutes per game over that stretch.
Caruso is a stronger target on FanDuel, where he can use his defensive upside. He has recorded six steals and three blocks in the four games he has played since his return. The Raptors allow the fifth-most blocks per game this season despite playing at the fifth-slowest pace in the league. There is value with Caruso at his current salary.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Utah Jazz – $10,700 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
The Nets have won five of their last six games as they continue to climb the Eastern Conference standings. They are still missing Ben Simmons, and Kyrie Irving will be unable to play tonight. Welcome to the Kevin Durant show. Using our On/Off Tool, with Irving and Harden off the floor, Durant has a team-high +4.7% usage rate bump. He is also averaging a career-high six assists this season.
Durant would be right up there for the scoring title had he not missed so many games in the middle of the season. He is averaging 29.4 points per game, which is the most he has had since the 2013-’14 season. This game features a very tight spread as the Nets are slight home underdogs with a high 230.5 total. Durant will be heavily involved in this home matchup against the Jazz.
Top Value: Tobias Harris vs. Miami Heat – $6,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Once again, Tobias Harris is popping as the highest projected Plus/Minus value on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings. His salary has dipped even further on FanDuel, where he now has a 95% Bargain Rating. Harris is coming off another lousy game where he finished with 16.75 DraftKings points, racking up just as many fouls as points (five).
The addition of Harden to the 76ers has hit Harris the hardest by far. He has finished with over 40 DraftKings points just once since Harden arrived. It doesn’t help that Embiid has the second-highest usage rate in the league, either. If either Harden or Embiid sits on this back-to-back, that can only help Harris. The value is there even though the matchup is hard and he is struggling.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Cleveland Cavaliers – $11,600 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel
The Lakers keep slipping in the standings, but LeBron James continues to produce at an elite level. Over the last eight games, James has averaged 35.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game while shooting 53.8% from the field. The result is an average of 59.8 DraftKings points per game with three games where he has scored over 70 DraftKings points.
James has such a high ceiling even in a difficult matchup against the Cavaliers. The Lakers are six-point road underdogs implied for only 110.75 points. James ranks second in both points and field goal attempts per game this season. The Cavaliers rank in the top four of both defensive rating and points allowed per game. Don’t be intimidated by the matchup; James is a great play.
Top Value: Drew Eubanks at Detroit Pistons – $5,100 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
The second-highest projected Plus/Minus player on DraftKings is Drew Eubanks, who is listed as center-only. Eubanks has dual eligibility on FanDuel, where he has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in 11 of his last 12 games. The Trail Blazers were in the hunt for the final play-in spot, but that dream has faded since losing 10 of their last 11 games after the All-Star Break.
This matchup against the Pistons is fantastic for opposing bigs. They have the worst rebounding percentage in the league while allowing the seventh-most points in the paint. The Pistons are coming off a game where they allowed 64 points in the paint against the Cavaliers. The Trail Blazers are seven-point road underdogs, but Eubanks still provides a lot of value at this salary.
Center
Top Ceiling: Karl Anthony-Towns at Dallas Mavericks – $10,400 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
Joel Embiid is the highest-priced center and does have upside every time he touches the court, but the matchup against the Heat is concerning. Karl-Anthony Towns has the much better matchup and has been playing superbly recently. Towns had a career-high 60 points just three games ago. He is averaging 24.9 points per game and 9.9 rebounds per game.
The Timberwolves have won 10 of their last 11 games and have climbed into sixth place in the Western Conference. This is a massive game against the Mavericks in terms of seeding. The Mavericks rank second in points allowed with 104.1 per game. However, they are below average on the glass and defending the paint. The price tag is rising, but Towns is a great option tonight.
Top Value: Nikola Vucevic vs. Toronto Raptors – $7,800 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
Nikola Vucevic comes in as a fantastic value option on DraftKings and FanDuel. He has a 92% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he also ranks fifth in ceiling and first in projected Plus/Minus at the center position. Vucevic has struggled recently, scoring under 30 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, but our model has him for well over 40 tonight.
In Vucevic’s three games against the Raptors earlier this season, he is averaging 21.3 points and 13.7 rebounds per game while shooting 61.7% from the field and 50% from behind the arc. He obviously loves this matchup against the undersized Raptors frontcourt. Vucevic is a near-lock to double-double every night, but his ceiling increases with matchups like tonight’s against the Raptors.
