The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Cade Cunningham at Cleveland Cavaliers – $10,500 DraftKings
There are two point guards priced over $10,000 and both have a projected ownership under 5%. Due to his recent performances, Cade Cunningham is the more intriguing pay-up option over LaMelo Ball. Cunningham has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games. During that stretch, he has three double-doubles and is averaging 29 points, 10 assists, 6.5 rebounds, and 55 DraftKings points per game.
The Pistons are one game over .500 but draw a difficult road matchup against the Cavaliers, who have lost only three home games all season. The Cavaliers have lost three straight games, so they may be coming back down to Earth, but they are still double-digit favorites tonight. Despite the tough matchup, Cunningham was able to drop 33 points while shooting 14-for-24 from the field in their first meeting. With a 36.2% projected usage rate, Cunningham is one of the best contrarian pay-up options for this 10-game slate.
Top Value: Keaton Wallace at Minnesota Timberwolves – $3,800 DraftKings
Rookie Keaton Wallace has been a major bright spot for the Hawks when given the opportunity. He has played in one game since the end of December but dominated with 27 points, six rebounds, six assists, and four steals while shooting 10-for-18 from the field, including 4-for-7 from distance. When the Hawks are depleted in their backcourt, they call up Wallace from the G-League and he has not disappointed.
Trae Young and Jalen Johnson are both out tonight, which opens up a massive amount of usage and production for the role players. With Young and Johnson off the floor this season, Wallace has posted a team-high +15.8 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a +5.26% usage rate differential (per our Trends tool). Wallace is projected to play 24 minutes, which is more than enough time to pay off his $3,800 price tag. He is an elite value option.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Kyrie Irving vs. Washington Wizards – $8,900 DraftKings
With Luka Doncic still nursing his calf injury, Kyrie Irving will continue to be a priority. The Mavericks have several other players ruled out tonight, but with just Doncic off the floor this season, Irving has seen a team-high +2.72% usage rate increase. His fantasy production has been boom or bust, but Irving still leads all shooting guards in projected ceiling. It helps that the Mavericks draw a cupcake matchup against the Wizards.
The Mavericks are a slate-high 12-point favorite, implied for 121 points. With 13 straight losses and a 6-38 record, the Wizards are the best matchup for opposing players. They have the worst defensive rating in the league at 118.3 while allowing 122.1 points per game. Irving will have no trouble showcasing his skill set in this matchup. Drawing a modest 15% projected ownership, Irving is a strong play in all formats.
Top Value: Malik Monk at Brooklyn Nets – $7,000 DraftKings
Malik Monk has a $7,000 price tag but has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the shooting guard position and the fifth-highest on the slate. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his last 10 games and has been a major contributor for the Kings since moving into the starting lineup. During that time, he is averaging 23.5 points, 7.9 assists and 44.35 DraftKings points per game with a 26% usage rate.
The Kings are double-digit road favorites and have won 10 of their last 13 games. The Nets have gone in the opposite direction, losing 11 of their last 12 games. The Nets rank 26th in defensive rating this season, while opponents are shooting a league-best 48.7% from the field. Given his increased playing time and usage rate, Monk is arguably the best mid-range play on the slate. His $7,000 salary still feels like a value.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine vs. Denver Nuggets – $8,100 DraftKings
Zach LaVine is the perfect mix of ceiling and value. At his $8,100 salary, LaVine’s projected ceiling is only six fantasy points behind Jayson Tatum‘s, but he costs $1,600 less. The Bulls have struggled this season, but LaVine is averaging a team-high 24 points per game while shooting a career-best 51.2% from the field and 44.4% from behind the arc. He is one of the lone bright spots for another lost Bulls season.
This matchup between the Bulls and Nuggets is the best game environment on the slate. The Bulls are 8.5-point home underdogs, but this game has a slate-high 246-point total. Both the Bulls and Nuggets rank in the top five in pace, making this an exciting game to target. From the Bulls’ side, with Coby White out tonight, LaVine is the clear best option. He’s seen a +2.07% usage rate increase with White off the floor.
Top Value: Kyshawn George at Dallas Mavericks – $3,700 DraftKings
Arguably, the best pure punt on this 10-game slate is Wizards’ rookie forward Kyshawn George. The Miami product drew his ninth start of the season last game and played 32 minutes. His playing time has fluctuated throughout the year, but in his nine starts, George is averaging double-digit points and 23.9 DraftKings points per game. Priced at $3,700, that is more than enough to pay off his cheap salary.
George is projected to play 28 minutes, which currently has him drawing over 25% projected ownership and the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. With dual forward eligibility, it is easy to fit George into any lineup build. He is also the premier bring-back in a team filled with Mavericks pieces. He has displayed a ceiling in the right game environment and is worth getting exposure to in this matchup.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Charlotte Hornets – $9,900 DraftKings
Priced under $10,000, LeBron James is another elite contrarian pay-up option on this 10-game slate. James has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five outings, with three double-doubles and one triple-double. During that stretch, the 40-year-old veteran is averaging 24 points, 10 assists, 8.2 rebounds, and 54.25 DraftKings points per game, with an extremely high 34.5% usage rate.
The Lakers have won five of their last six games, and James is doing everything he can to keep this season afloat. This matchup against the Hornets is the front end of a back-to-back, so make sure to keep an eye on the status of James and Anthony Davis. Davis sat out the front end of the Lakers’ most recent back-to-back, so if he were to get ruled out, that would be a significant boost to James. Either way, James is an exceptional play.
Top Value: Alex Sarr at Dallas Mavericks – $5,400 DraftKings
Alex Sarr is another potential rookie to target for the Wizards. Sarr has posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his last seven games and has six double-doubles this year. The rookie has been a serviceable big man, averaging 11.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.6 blocks, and 28.2 DraftKings points per game. Sarr has been a consistent producer making him a strong value option.
The Mavericks have been a slightly below-average interior defensive unit. They rank 16th in rebounding percentage and 17th in points allowed per game in the paint. Sarr’s usage rate has also increased recently. He’s been at 20% or higher in 12 of his last 14 games, with a 21.4% projected usage rate tonight. Playing over 20 minutes, Sarr is a fantastic value in all formats with power forward and center eligibility.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Chicago Bulls – $12,000 DraftKings
Nikola Jokic is coming off his second-worst game of the season. In the Nuggets 29-point loss to the Timberwolves, Jokic finished with 20 points, 11 assists, three rebounds, and seven turnovers. It was the second time this season that Jokic had fewer than 40 DraftKings points.
Do not let that deter you from rostering Jokic tonight. In his previous game, he erupted with a 35-point, 22-rebound, 17-assist triple-double for 99 DraftKings points. He is the cream of the crop and by far the best pay-up option to target.
Another reason not to take Jokic’s last game too much into consideration is this incredible matchup against the Bulls. They are allowing a league-high 55.7 points per game in the paint and rank 22nd in rebounding percentage. Do not get cute. Pay up for Jokic and differentiate lineups elsewhere.
Top Value: Daniel Gafford vs. Washington Wizards – $6,700 DraftKings
Mavericks’ center Daniel Gafford is expected to be the most popular play on this slate. He is basically the last big man standing on the team, with Dereck Lively, Dwight Powell, and Maxi Kleber all ruled out. Gafford is projected to play 30 minutes and will be a staple in cash game contests and a priority target in tournaments. He has recorded a double-double in four of his last six games, with three games of over 45 DraftKings points and one ceiling performance with an incredible 71.75 DraftKings points.
The Wizards are also an atrocious interior defensive team. They rank 27th in points in the paint allowed per game and 29th in rebounding percentage at 47.7%. This is a fantastic matchup, and Gafford has been playing at an elite level recently. It is impossible to get away from Gafford at his $6,700 price tag.
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