The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tools and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry at Houston Rockets – $11,000 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
It has been a while since Stephen Curry has been brought up in this article. However, a few factors are making Curry a great play tonight. The first is his salary on FanDuel. He has a 98% Bargain Rating as his salary has dipped far too low for the type of upside that Curry can provide, even though he has shot a career-low 41.5% from the field and 37.6% from behind the arc. The second is the matchup against the Rockets.
There isn’t a better spot in the league than playing against the Rockets. They rank last in Defensive Rating and first in Pace. They allow a league-high 116.8 points per game, and the Warriors have a slate-high 119.75 implied total. The Warriors are 10.5-point road favorites with this game total set at 228.5 points. Prioritize Curry on FanDuel, where his recent struggles are mitigated by his extremely cheap price tag.
Top Value: Tre Mann vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $3,500 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
The Oklahoma City Thunder will be the main source of value tonight as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who leads the team in points with 22.7 per game, is out until after the All-Star break. Tre Mann started the second half of their last game when Gilgeous-Alexander left due to injury, so he will likely start tonight. He played 26 minutes, which is valuable at his minimal price tag on both sites.
What sets apart these Thunder values is the matchup against the Trail Blazers. They rank 29th in Defensive Rating and 27th in points against, allowing 112.7 per game. The Trail Blazers also allow opponents to shoot a league-high 47.6% from the field and 37.0% from behind the arc. The Thunder have lost 12 of their last 13 games and are only implied for 107 points, but they provide a ton of value on this slate.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Haliburton at New York Knicks – $8,500 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
The ceiling shooting guard options are pretty bleak on this slate. Tyrese Haliburton stands out on top, especially if De’Aaron Fox is unable to play. Fox has missed the last four games and is questionable to play tonight. Haliburton has been very boom or bust during that time. He has two games where he scored over 50 DraftKings points and two where he scored under 30 DraftKings points.
The Kings are playing their last leg of a five-game road trip against the Knicks. They are in a tough spot as they have an implied total of just 104.25 points, which is the second-lowest on the slate. The Knicks play at the slowest Pace in the league as they only allow 104.8 points per game. In eight games without Fox this season, Haliburton has averaged nearly a double-double with 21.8 points and 9.8 assists per game. Haliburton is a decent play but could be a great play without Fox. Monitor the status of Fox the closer we get to lock.
Top Value: Josh Giddey vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $7,300 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Not too much of a value play, especially on DraftKings, but Josh Giddey has by far the highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He is the first name that comes to mind when Gilgeous-Alexander is out of the lineup. In three games without Gilgeous-Alexander this season, Giddey is averaging nearly a triple-double with 17.0 points, 11.0 assists, 9.0 rebounds, and 48.3 DraftKings points per game.
The matchup against the Trail Blazers is fantastic, and Giddey could flirt with another triple-double tonight. Using our On/Off tool, Giddey is second in most minutes played without Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor this season. He is coming off of a career-high 40 minutes last game, and he racked up 15 points, 10 assists, five rebounds, and 38.0 DraftKings points. Prioritize Giddey on FanDuel tonight.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Miami Heat – $10,600 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
Jayson Tatum has shown to be very boom or bust this season, but he can take over the slate when he booms. The last six games have been a rollercoaster. In half of the games, Tatum averaged 41.7 points per game while shooting 63.6% from the field. However, he averaged 19.7 points per game in the other half while shooting 32.7% from the field. That volatility makes Tatum an excellent tournament play.
The Celtics are 3-point home favorites over the Heat but are still only implied for 106 points. The Heat rank seventh in Defensive Rating and 29th in Pace this season. However, they really struggle guarding the 3-point line, which is where Tatum thrives. The Heat allow the third-most made and attempted 3-pointers in the league. If Tatum gets hot from downtown, watch out for another ceiling game.
Top Value: Andrew Wiggins at Houston Rockets – $6,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
NBA All-Star starter Andrew Wiggins has an interesting ring to it, especially from a Timberwolves fan. It is deserving, as Wiggins is second on the Warriors in points while shooting a career-high 48.5% from the field and 41.4% from behind the arc. The Warriors are still without Draymond Green, which hasn’t effected Wiggins other than solidifying his playing time.
It certainly seems as though Wiggins has taken this All-Star starter criticism personally. In the two games since he was announced the starter, he is averaging 21.5 points while shooting 56.7% from the field and 56.3% from downtown. He has averaged 44.4 DraftKings points in those contests. This matchup is fantastic, and the price is also reasonable for the upside Wiggins has shown recently.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $9,800 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
After missing four-straight games, Domantas Sabonis has returned and hasn’t missed a beat. Since returning, Sabonis has averaged 22.5 points, 16.5 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game in two games. He likely would’ve had his fifth triple-double in his last nine games had their last game not blown out. Overall, Sabonis has averaged 62.9 DraftKings points per game during that time.
The absence of Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner has allowed Sabonis to reach his ceiling. In 18 games without Brogdon this season, Sabonis has averaged 20.5 points and 12.9 rebounds per game. Getting a double-double seems like a lock for Sabonis. He has had 34 double-double’s in 46 games which ranks third in the entire league. Sabonis has an incredible ceiling at this salary on both sites.
Top Value: Nemanja Bjelica at Houston Rockets – $3,700 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
Our Tournament Model absolutely loves Warriors forward Nemanja Bjelica tonight. Not only is Draymond Green out, but so is Otto Porter Jr. Bjelica is listed as questionable as he missed last game due to injury. If he is also out, fire up rookie Jonathan Kuminga. Whether it is Bjelica or Kuminga, this matchup against the Rockets without Green and Porter Jr. provides plenty of value.
Bjelica is popping with the highest projected Plus/Minus for the entire slate on DraftKings and the highest for any power forward on FanDuel. He has had a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last six games. With Green and Porter Jr. off the floor this season, he also has a +3.9 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Bjelica is projected to play 22 minutes, and he is averaging a career-high 1.04 DraftKings points per minute.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $11,800 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
Once again, Joel Embiid is the highest-priced player on the slate. Embiid has been on an absolute tear over the past six games. He is averaging 38.7 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 66.3 DraftKings points per game while shooting 55.6% from the field and averaging a ridiculous 14.0 free throws per game. He is nearly impossible to stop.
Embiid has basically single handily led the 76ers to winning 14 of their last 17 games. His usage rate has climbed so much recently that he now leads the league with a 36.3% usage rate. This matchup against the Grizzlies features the second-highest total on the slate, and the 76ers are favored by 3.5 points. Embiid is without a doubt the best pay-up option on the slate.
Editors Note: Embiid has been ruled out vs. the Grizzlies. Andre Drummond is expected to start in his absence, and he becomes one of the top values of the day.
Top Value: Richaun Holmes at New York Knicks – $5,000 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
The highest-rated player in our model on DraftKings is Kings center Richaun Holmes. Over the last five games since his return from injury, Holmes is averaging 11.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 25.2 DraftKings points per game. His minutes are starting to ramp up again, as he played 31 minutes in his last game. The price tag remains reasonable, despite this matchup against the slow-paced Knicks.
The value options at center tonight seem limited, which makes paying up for Embiid that much more important. However, Holmes is the preferred option if you decide to play two centers on DraftKings or pay down on FanDuel. As I mentioned with Haliburton, this matchup against the Knicks is gross. They also allow the second least amount of points in the paint with 41.3 per game. However, the price tag on Holmes is simply too good to ignore.
