The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Houston Rockets – $12,400 DraftKings, $12,400 FanDuel
Not surprisingly, Doncic has the highest ceiling projection on the entire 10-game slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has a slate-high 39.4% usage projection and a great matchup against the Rockets, who give him and the Mavs a +3.9 Pace Differential, which is the third-highest on the slate.
Doncic has been absolutely other-worldly over his past few games. He has scored 50 points or more in three of his past five games and has averaged 45.6 points, 11.2 rebounds, 10.2 assists, and 2.4 steals. During that impressive run, he had the NBA’s first-ever 60-20-10 triple-double. That monster game resulted in 110.75 DraftKings points and 105.2 FanDuel points, and he has posted over 80 DraftKings points in four of those contests.
He faced the Rockets last Thursday and finished with 81 DraftKings points on 35 points, 13 assists, 12 rebounds, two blocks, and a steal. He played 34 minutes in the 15-point win, so even if he doesn’t get all the way to his average minutes, he can deliver a ceiling game that makes him hard to overlook, even at this massive salary.
Top Value: Cory Joseph at Portland Trail Blazers – $3,300 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
At such a low salary, it doesn’t take much for Joseph to quickly return value, and he should be lined up for an expanded role once again with Killian Hayes (suspension) sidelined. Joseph has the top Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards at any salary on DraftKings and the most of any point guard under $5K on FanDuel.
CoJo didn’t do much in the first game that Hayes was out, but he contributed 27.5 DraftKings points in 28 minutes on Saturday, pouring in 11 points to go with six rebounds and five assists. He can contribute in multiple categories when he gets expanded minutes, and he’s projected to play 23 minutes Monday. That should allow him to outproduce expectations based on his salary.
Top Ceiling: Jordan Poole vs. Atlanta Hawks – $8,200 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
Poole has the top ceiling projection of all shooting guards on DraftKings, which is especially significant since there are six shooting guards with higher salaries. He has the fourth-highest ceiling projection at shooting guard on FanDuel, where Doncic and Kyrie Irving are also eligible as two of the 10 guards priced over Poole. He should be set up in a smash spot and brings an elite ceiling at a salary of barely over $8K on both sites.
The Warriors host the Hawks in a game that has the second-highest over/under on the slate, and they also have the fifth-highest Implied Team Total, which is why Poole is one of several Warriors that shows favorably in Monday’s model.
Poole is coming off a giant game of 41 points and 55 DraftKings points on Friday night and has taken at least 20 shots and scored at least 24 points in four straight games. During that four-game stretch, he has averaged 35.0 FanDuel points and 39.2 DraftKings points in 34.1 minutes on 30.8 points, 3.8 assists, and 3.3 rebounds per game.
Top Value: Caris LeVert vs. Chicago Bulls – $4,800 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
LeVert brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings, where he is still under $5K. He is also still a solid value on FanDuel, where he brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard behind only Doncic and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward behind only Kyle Anderson.
One of the main reasons for LeVert’s value is the expected absence of Darius Garland, who is doubtful with a thumb injury. Stepping in and making a spot start Saturday, the seventh-year player from Michigan went off for 23 points, seven rebounds, and four assists for 39.25 DraftKings points and 36.4 FanDuel points. It was LeVert’s second big game in a row, and it was the third straight start with at least 35 DraftKings points.
With 36 projected minutes and a 22.2% usage projection, LeVert is poised to take advantage of a +4.0 Pace Differential as the Cavs face Chicago. It’s the second-highest pace differential for any team on the slate and should set him up for success on Monday night.
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Charlotte Hornets – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
The Lakers continue to rely on LeBron to an extreme degree, and the King continues to deliver for them. He’s in a great spot to keep rolling in this contest and has the highest ceiling projection at a stacked small forward spot on both DraftKings and FanDuel He out-ranks Kevin Durant, Anthony Edwards, and Paul George by comfortable margins in ceiling projection.
Part of the reason for LeBron’s high ceiling is that he’s in a beautiful matchup against the Hornets, which has the highest over/under on the slate and is expected to be a close, competitive contest.
Since Anthony Davis (foot) went down with his most recent injury, James has had a 36.8% usage rate over his past six games, producing 34.2 points, 7.3 assists, 6.7 rebounds, and 55 DraftKings points in 34.4 minutes per game. He had a season-high 76 DraftKings points on his 38th birthday on Friday, falling just one assist short of a triple-double with 47 points, 10 rebounds, nine assists, and a blocked shot. Also, during the time without Davis, James had 34 points and 51 DraftKings points in a four-point loss to the Hornets in Charlotte, which he and the Lakers will be looking to avenge in this rematch.
Top Value: Donte DiVincenzo vs. Atlanta Hawks – $5,900 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Another Warriors player picking up their play with Steph sidelined has been DiVincenzo. In this nice spot against the Hawks, he has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has started each of the past seven games, averaging 34.3 minutes per game, and is projected for a similar 34.0 minutes in this favorable matchup Monday.
DiVincenzo has scored 15+ points four times in his seven starts and has averaged 12.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. He has produced 30.1 DraftKings points and 30.0 FanDuel points per game over those seven games and exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his past 10 games with an average Plus/Minus of +7.55 on FanDuel and +4.23 on DraftKings. He remains a solid midrange play on the wing and can slide in at either guard or forward on both sites, making him versatile and valuable as a reliable contributor for Golden State.
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam at Indiana Pacers – $10,200 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
The most significant Pace Differential on the entire slate belongs to the Raptors as they visit the Pacers, who rank No. 6 in the NBA in pace and in the bottom third of the league in Defensive Rating. Siakam has been taking on more work for Toronto with Fred VanVleet (back) missing the past two games with a back injury. FVV is questionable for this contest, and with VanVleet not in the projections, Siakam has the highest ceiling projection of all power forwards on both DraftKings and FanDuel, even over LeBron and Durant.
Siakam had a quieter game in the Raptors’ win on Friday over the Suns, but before that had run off five straight games with over 50 DraftKings points. During that run, he averaged 35.4 points, 10.0 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 1.4 steals in 41.8 minutes per game.
He’s set up for a bounce-back game against the Pacers, so consider mixing in some Spicy P to your lineups on Monday, especially if VanVleet ends up being forced to sit once again.
Top Value: Kyle Anderson vs. Denver Nuggets – $5,200 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Anderson has started 10 of the past 11 games in which he has been available, helping to fill in while Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) has been sidelined. Anderson has regularly been a solid value play during that run, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel. On DraftKings, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward and checks in at No. 4 at small forward.
During the time Anderson has had a more prominent role, he has also had to battle back spasms, which cost him five games. He was able to play both halves of Minnesota’s back-to-back last Friday and Saturday, though, and looked solid on Saturday with 12 points, six rebounds, and 24.5 DraftKings points.
In the eight games he played before the back spasms popped up, he averaged 10.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.5 steals for 28.3 DraftKings points per game. If he returns to that level or approaches the ceiling he flashed with over 32 FanDuel points in three of those contests, Anderson is poised to be a nice midrange value on Monday.
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Minnesota Timberwolves – $11,700 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
The Joker has the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate behind only Doncic, and like Doncic, Jokic has been on an impressive run lately, posting monster games night after night. On Sunday, he posted his ninth triple-double of the season with 30 points, 12 assists, 12 rebounds, and 70.5 DraftKings points in only 32 minutes against the Celtics.
He has at least 58 DraftKings points in 10 of his past 12 games, including four games with over 80 DraftKings points. Over that span, he has a 31.0% usage rate and has produced 1.8 DraftKings points and 1.79 FanDuel points per minute.
While he will have to deal with Rudy Gobert in this matchup, he has shown that he is matchup-proof due to the versatility of his game. Whenever he’s on the slate, he has to be considered a centerpiece to build around, and he could end up with more work depending on who is available for the Nuggets as they finish their back-to-back.
Top Value: Kevon Looney vs. Atlanta Hawks – $4,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
On FanDuel, Looney has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate, and he has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Looney is an interesting option since he doesn’t typically score many points but brings plenty of production from other categories. He has at least nine rebounds in three straight games and over 20 FanDuel points in four consecutive contests.
Like he is in real life, Looney is a reliable anchor for your lineup if you need to go cheap at center and pay up for scorers in other spots. He should be able to return value in this favorable spot against the Hawks, which is enough to make him one of the top plays in the model on Monday.
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