The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tools and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry at Oklahoma City Thunder – $10,500 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
The highest-priced player on DraftKings with the highest ceiling is Stephen Curry. There is a good amount of risk with Curry simply based on how many times he has busted this season. He has only had a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in five out of his last 29 games! FanDuel is where we need to get our Curry exposure as he is still very underpriced and comes with a 92% Bargain Rating.
The Warriors are heavy 12-point favorites against the Thunder, but this game still has the second-lowest total on the slate at 213 points. Despite their 17-35 record, the Thunder rank in the top 10 in Defensive Rating this season. Curry’s production has also taken a dip without Draymond Green in the lineup. Times have been bleak for Curry, but the ceiling he is capable of is unmatched on this slate.
Top Value: Kyle Lowry at Washington Wizards – $6,600 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Kyle Lowry is another veteran point guard who is popping like crazy in our Tournament Model on FanDuel. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel of any guard and has a 95% Bargain Rating. Since returning from injury, Lowry has had one atrocious game and one very productive game last time out. He played 31 minutes and filled up the stat sheet with nine points, two assists, six rebounds, and four steals for 32.4 DraftKings points. However, he only had an 8.3% usage rate with six field goal attempts.
It is tough to know what Lowry will provide tonight, but the minutes are trending up, and the Wizards rank 22nd in Defensive Rating this season. This matchup features the lowest total on the slate at 208.5 points. Both the Wizards and Heat rank in the bottom 10 in Pace. The game will likely be a boring snooze fest, but Lowry is simply way too cheap on FanDuel for his projected output.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at Chicago Bulls – $8,900 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
Another boom or bust ceiling option comes at the shooting guard position with Devin Booker. The Suns are on another tear right now as they have won 12 of their last 13 games. Booker is a high-volume shooter who is a very scoring-dependent fantasy player, which presents some risk. However, he ranks third in the league in field goal attempts with a career-high 20.7 per game, and he’s also posted a 32.2% usage rate.
This game against the Bulls features the highest total on the slate at 228 points, and the Suns are implied for 117 points. The Bulls allow the fourth-highest 3-point percentage in the league, which Booker should feast on. He can get cooking from long distance, but he scores in a variety of ways. With Chris Paul averaging a career-low in points, Booker will get every opportunity to fill up the scoreboard.
Top Value: Josh Giddey vs. Golden State Warriors – $7,800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Finding value at shooting guard is difficult, but Josh Giddey stands out as one of the best plays on FanDuel. The Thunder have won three of their last four games, which is impressive without their point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Using our On/Off tool, Giddey has played the most minutes without Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor. In seven games without him, Giddey is averaging 17.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, 7.9 assists, and 41.7 DraftKings points per game.
Despite their recent results, the Thunder are still massive home underdogs against the Warriors. The Thunder are implied for a slate-low 99.75 points tonight. Prioritize Giddey on FanDuel, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating and five-straight games with a positive Plus/Minus. He is also the highest-rated player in our model on FanDuel tonight. There is value despite the spread.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan vs. Phoenix Suns – $9,800 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Arguably the most important news on the slate is the status of Bulls guard Zach LaVine. He has missed the last two games with back spasms and is listed as questionable to play tonight. Monitor his status the closer we get to lock. If he is out, DeMar DeRozan will be a great play. He is coming off a season-high 45-point explosion where he also had nine rebounds and seven assists.
Playing against the Suns is always a tough matchup. They rank second in the league in Defensive Rating and allow a league-best 102.4 points per game. Despite the matchup, it is tough to fade DeRozan when he has a positive Plus/Minus in 10-straight games. Also, in the nine games that DeRozan has played without LaVine, he is averaging 32.6 points and a 36.8% usage rate per game.
Note: DeMar DeRozan is listed as PF eligible only on DraftKings.
Top Value: Gordon Hayward vs. Toronto Raptors – $5,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Gordon Hayward is coming off of his worst game of the season, where he shot 0-for-7 from the field and only had 6.75 DraftKings points. The Hornets were blown out at home, and Hayward only played 22 minutes. As a result, his salary dropped like a rock, especially on DraftKings. According to our model, he is the best small forward option by far on DraftKings tonight.
The Hornets are slight home underdogs as they have lost four-straight games. This matchup against the Raptors is an interesting one as they rank 26th in Pace and allow only 106.9 points per game. Almost the exact opposite of how the Hornets like to play. Every other game has a spread of six or more points. The Hornets can be valuable tonight, especially Hayward.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam at Charlotte Hornets – $9,200 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
The best part about rostering a Raptors player is the minutes they are logging. The Raptors have four starters that rank in the top five of minutes played per game. That is insanity! Pascal Siakam is second on the list averaging 37.7 minutes per game. Siakam has been fantastic lately. He has averaged 24 points, 11 rebounds, and 52.4 DraftKings points per game in his last five games.
Not only is the minutes a massive boost for Siakam, but so is the matchup against the Hornets. They rank 24th in Defensive Rating and second in Pace this season, and the Hornets have allowed the third-most points with 114.2 per game. This game has the closest spread and the second-highest game total on the slate at 224.5 points. There is a lot to like about getting exposure to Siakam tonight.
Top Value: Darius Bazley vs. Golden State Warriors – $5,400 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Not only are the Thunder without Gilgeous-Alexander, but their frontcourt is decimated with injuries, including Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Isaiah Roby, Mike Muscala, and Lu Dort. That will solidify the minutes for Darius Bazley, who has been excellent lately. Over the last three games, Bazley is averaging a double-double with 11.7 points and 10.0 rebounds per game.
Bazley has actually scored in the double digits in four out of his last five games. As I mentioned with Giddey, this matchup is very difficult. However, with so many players out for the Thunder, they provide a great source of value even in this tough spot. Bazley leads the way in our model as the best value play on FanDuel and the second-best on DraftKings, even at an elevated salary.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Vucevic vs. Phoenix Suns – $10,100 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Last night was only the second time in his last 11 games that Nikola Vucevic has not recorded a double-double. During those 11 games, Vucevic averaged 22.5 points, 13 rebounds, and 49.2 DraftKings points per game. He shot 54.2% from the field and had a season-high 70.8 DraftKings points over that span. His salary has skyrocketed to the highest on FanDuel, but it is deserved.
Vucevic has recorded a double-double in 29 of his 45 games played this season which ranks tied for fifth in the league. He has scored over 64 DraftKings points in two out of his last three games. In nine games without LaVine, Vucevic has averaged 20.7 points and 10.6 rebounds per game. If LaVine is playing, this spot gets dicey as the Suns rank in the top 10 in points allowed in the paint this season.
Top Value: Montrezl Harrell vs. Miami Heat – $4,700 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
The best value play according to our model on DraftKings is Wizards center Montrezl Harrell. Starting center Daniel Gafford is out tonight, which will likely move Harrell into the starting lineup. Thomas Bryant and Rui Hachimura are now back from injury, but in four games without Gafford this season, Harrell has averaged a double-double with 15.8 points and 10 rebounds per game.
With Bradley Beal still out, the Wizards need a little bit more scoring as well, and Harrell has averaged 16.3 points per game in the last three games while shooting 56.8% from the field. This matchup against the Heat is brutal for opposing centers. They allow a league-best 39.6 points per game in the paint this season and rank sixth in Defensive Rating. Despite the matchup, the value is still high with Harrell.
