The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Damian Lillard at Oklahoma City Thunder – $11,100 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Monday’s 11-game slate offers plenty of excellent options to consider, and I’m ready to go back to the well on Lillard, who has the second-highest ceiling projection at point guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Luka Doncic has a higher ceiling projection, but he’s sharing usage with Kyrie Irving and costs significantly more on both sites.
Lillard should be poised for success against the Lakers in this matchup that gives him and the Blazers a Pace Differential of +3.9, the third-highest of any team on this slate. The game also has the third-highest over/under and should be competitive, according to the odds.
Dame has outperformed salary-based expectations in seven of his past 10 games with an average Plus/Minus of +8.52 during that span. He followed up his monster triple-double with 38 points, nine assists, and 56 DraftKings points on Friday night against the Thunder and has over 55 DraftKings points in three of his past four contests.
This will be the third time Lillard takes on the Lakers this year. He had 41 points and 52.25 DraftKings pointsin their first meeting early in the season and posted 49 DraftKings points and a double-double in their rematch in January. Especially with Patrick Beverley no longer causing issues for the Lakers’ opposing point guards, Lillard should be able to produce another ceiling game Monday.
Lillard’s scoring prop sits at 35.5 points on Monkey Knife Fight. You can get a $100 sign-up bonus on Monkey Knife Fight by signing up through our promo link.
Top Value: Jordan Clarkson at Indiana Pacers – $6,700 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
Another point guard in a great pace-up spot is Clarkson, who is stepping into a more prominent role for the Jazz after the trade of Mike Conley at the deadline. Clarkson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on FanDuel. He is also in the top 10 at the position on DraftKings, where he does get outpaced by a couple of bargain plays but still brings an excellent ceiling for a midrange play.
After missing a game with illness last week, he returned to the court Saturday and had a 30% usage rate. With Conley off the court, he gets the most significant usage bump on the team and produces 1.08 DraftKings points and 1.03 FanDuel points per minute.
Aside from a down game against Minnesota, Clarkson has scored 20+ points in five straight games with at least 29 FanDuel points and 32 DraftKings points in each contest. He hasn’t had a double-double since mid-January, but with Conley out of the picture, he will have to pick up more playmaking responsibilities. He didn’t even shoot particularly well on Saturday and still finished with a solid 35 DraftKings points on 24 points, six rebounds, and three assists.
Clarkson played 40 minutes in that loss to the Knicks on Saturday and should continue to have a heavy workload in this great scoring environment against the Pacers. The Jazz have the fourth-highest Implied Team Total on the slate, and they’ll be a prominent team on Monday.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. San Antonio Spurs – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
The Cavaliers have the biggest Pace Differential on the slate as they host the Spurs. It will be quite a contrast in styles since the Cavs play tremendous defense and rank last in Pace, while the Spurs play at the sixth-fastest Pace and rank last in Defensive Rating. The situation sets up Mitchell with the second-highest ceiling projection at shooting guard on DraftKings, and he’s also in the top five in that category on FanDuel.
Mitchell was on fire in January but cooled off toward the end of the month, and his salary came down a bit as a result. He seems to have rediscovered his rhythm in his two most recent games, though, dropping 30 points on the Pelicans last Friday and following that up with 29 points, 10 rebounds, six assists, 57 FanDuel points, and 58.5 DraftKings points on Saturday against the Bulls.
He brings that kind of upside to this favorable spot as well, so give Spida a look if you’re spending up at shooting guard.
Top Value: Talen Horton-Tucker at Indiana Pacers – $3,900 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
The Jazz not only shipped out Conley but also traded away Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt, which has opened plenty of time on the wing for THT. Horton-Tucker brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel and can also be a great play at small forward, where he also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel.
Horton-Tucker put up good stats when given volume in the past with the Lakers, and it now looks like the Jazz will give him an expanded role on the wing. He has played over 24 minutes in three straight games and averaged 33.5 FanDuel points and 33 DraftKings points over that stretch.
He can contribute in multiple categories, so he should be a great value play that fits in almost any roster build.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Lauri Markkanen at Indiana Pacers – $9,100 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
This is the last member of the Jazz in this writeup, but it’s impossible to tune them out with such a tasty matchup against the Pacers, who play fast and without much discipline on the defensive end. Markkanen brings the highest ceiling projection at small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on FanDuel, where his price is shockingly low.
Markkanen has been outstanding in his first year in Utah and has scored at least 19 points in each of his past 24 contests. Since returning from a quick two-game absence in January, he has averaged 25.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game over his past 11 contests. He has over 40 DraftKings points in eight of those 11 games, including both games following the trade deadline. In those two games, he has totaled 43 shots and scored 52 points while falling just one rebound short of a double-double against the Raptors last Friday.
Not only has Markkanen been a breakout start, but he also has been remarkably consistent as a strong fantasy play. He should continue to get all the usage he can handle in this great spot against the Pacers.
Top Value: Jae’Sean Tate at Philadelphia 76ers – $3,500 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Tate has unique eligibility on DraftKings, where he brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard and the third-highest at small forward. On FanDuel, he is eligible at small forward and power forward and ranks in the top 10 at each position in Projected Plus/Minus.
The Rockets shuffled things around a little bit at the trade deadline, which opens up some additional minutes for Tate. He moved into the starting lineup in place of Eric Gordon on Friday and should continue to start for as long as Kevin Porter Jr. (foot) is sidelined.
Tate started 77 of his 78 games last year for Houston and averaged 11.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 25.05 DraftKings points per game, but he has missed most of this season due to multiple ankle issues. In his first start of the year, he had five points, four boards, and just 11 DraftKings points. Even though that number isn’t impressive, he has shown a much higher ceiling in the past, and he did play slightly more than usual. If he keeps getting that much work, he should be able to offer good returns at this very affordable salary.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle vs. Brooklyn Nets – $10,100 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
The Knicks get their first look at their crosstown rival’s new look on Monday night, and it sets up well for Randle to put up a big number. He has the second-highest ceiling projection at power forward on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel.
Randle exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his previous nine games before falling just short Saturday against the Jazz. The big man has scored at least 19 points in 12 straight games and has averaged 27.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 50.7 DraftKings points over that span. He had six straight double-doubles before finishing with just six rebounds Saturday.
Less than a month ago, Randle had 19 points, 10 boards, and eight assists for 46 DraftKings points in the Knicks’ loss to the Nets, but he should be able to outpace that performance in this rematch. He’s one of the most consistent performers at the position, partly due to his reliably heavy workload.
Top Value: De’Andre Hunter at Charlotte Hornets – $5,200 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Hunter is in the top five of Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel and also in the top 10 small forward. Part of that is due to a great matchup against the Hornets, and part of that is due to John Collins and Bogdan Bogdanovic being questionable with hip injuries. Both players are currently included in the projections, but if either is ruled out, Hunter’s potential value would jump even higher.
The Hornets are a great matchup, giving Hunter an Opponent Plus/Minus over +1.5 in this matchup, which has the highest over/under on the slate.
Hunter has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his past 10 games and is coming off a big game with 24 points, five rebounds, three steals, 39.5 FanDuel points, and 38.25 DraftKings points on Saturday against the Spurs. He was in a little shooting slump before breaking through in that contest but has averaged 16.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.8 assists in 33.3 minutes per game over his past 16 contests.
Especially if Bogdanovic or Collins are sidelined, Hunter will bring a great ceiling at this salary.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Houston Rockets – $11,400 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel
Even with Nikola Jokic on the slate and Anthony Davis possibly playing without LeBron James, Embiid has to be the choice at center. He brings an astronomical ceiling in this matchup against the Rockets, who don’t really play much defense, especially against opposing centers.
On both FanDuel and DraftKings, Embiid has the highest ceiling projection on the slate by a comfortable margin and brings a fairly high Projected Plus/Minus, indicating he’s actually underpriced despite his massive price tag.
Embiid is questionable for this game, as has become his new norm, but he has been putting up big numbers lately despite his ailments. He has over 30 points in four of his past five games and double-digit rebounds in eight of his past nine.
In those nine games, Embiid has averaged 32.8 points, 11.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.0 blocked shots in 35.4 minutes per game. He posted over 60 DraftKings points in each of his two most recent games, leading his team to victories over the Knicks and the Nets.
Earlier this season, the Rockets knocked off the Sixers at home despite 39 points and seven rebounds from Embiid. The Sixers will be out to avenge that defeat and continue their playoff push, and the best way for them to do that is to give the ball to Emibiid early and often.
Top Value: Mark Williams vs. Atlanta Hawks – $4,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Williams has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings and the second-highest at center on FanDuel, where he has been priced up a little bit.
The rookie from Duke has stepped into a much larger role with the Hornets after the departure of starting center Mason Plumlee. He started both games of Charlotte’s back-to-back on Friday and Saturday of last week. He had 11 points, 12 rebounds, and 31.4 FanDuel points in his start against the Celtics and followed that up with 21 FanDuel points on six points, five boards, two blocks, and a steal vs. the Nuggets.
He typically brings good defensive numbers, which makes him especially valuable on FanDuel, and he should be a nightly threat for a double-double if he continues to get starters’ minutes.
In a game that should have plenty of points, Williams is a great value to build around in the middle if you decide to pass on Embiid or go with a multi-center lineup on DraftKings.
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