The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry vs. Orlando Magic – $11,700 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel
Normally we have a few more options at the top of point guard, but that is not the case tonight. Stephen Curry is the clear ceiling point guard on this slate. His price tag reminds high due to the outbursts that he can have any given night. However, it may be too high on DraftKings seeing as the Warriors are 16-point favorites. I prefer Curry on FanDuel where he has a 95% Bargain Rating.
The Orlando Magic rank 26th in Defensive Rating this season and have allowed 110.5 points per game. They also have allowed the eighth most 3-pointers made at 13.2 per game. Curry might have 13 himself in this game. Curry is a player who can get value in limited minutes, so I still think he is a great spend up option on FanDuel tonight. I would keep him to tournaments-only on DraftKings.
Top Value: Dennis Smith Jr. vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
The price on Dennis Smith Jr. shot way up after he posted 41.50 DraftKings points in his last game against the Boston Celtics. The Trail Blazers were blown out at home 145-117 and Smith Jr. still played 37 minutes and finished with 21 points, four rebounds, six assists, three steals, and no turnovers while shooting 50% from the field. That game resulted in a +26.5 Plus/Minus.
The Trail Blazers are still playing without Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons which will allow Smith Jr. to get another start tonight. This matchup should hopefully stay closer than the last one, as the Clippers are 3-point favorites on the road. However, Smith Jr. as shown in his last game will get the minutes regardless of the score. The price increase is significant, but there is still value at this salary.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Houston Rockets – $8,100 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Anthony Edwards can certainly be tilting to roster, since he seems to be a very boom or bust fantasy player. However, when he booms he can win you a tournament. Edwards had two games last month where he put up 69.5 and 67.5 DraftKings points. The ceiling is there. He is averaging the third most minutes played this season with 36.4 per game. The opportunities will be there.
Edwards could also be playing tonight without two of his better teammates in Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell, who are both questionable. Keep on an eye on their status because Edwards will get a major boost if both are unable to go tonight. Using our On/Off tool Edwards has a +15.9 Plus/Minus without Russell and Towns on the floor this season. The Atlanta Hawks rank 24th in Defensive Rating this season and they have a far worse rating on the road than at home.
Top Value: Ish Smith vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
After being priced at $4,800 on DraftKings and $5,000 on FanDuel last night, these prices on both sites tonight seem like a layup. Ish Smith is the best value on the slate. He played 32 minutes last night and finished with 18 points, seven assists, and five rebounds for 37.25 DraftKings points. He added a steal and only had one turnover. Let’s run it back with Smith again tonight.
The Philadelphia 76ers defense is completely different when Joel Embiid plays. When Embiid plays this season, they have a Defensive Rating of 105.9 compared to 115.2 when he does not play. Bad news for Smith and the Hornets, Embiid is playing tonight. However, at this salary I think the value far outweighs the matchup. Smith has a 94% Bargain Rating on DraftKings projected to play 35 minutes.
Note: Ish Smith is only PG eligible on DraftKings.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Paul George at Portland Trail Blazers – $10,600 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
Paul George has one of the biggest pricing differences between sites that I have seen this season. He is $1,700 cheaper on FanDuel where he has a 98% Bargain Rating. On DraftKings his price tag is tough to get to seeing as he has had a negative Plus/Minus in 14 of his last 15 games!
This matchup for George is one that he can thrive in. The Trail Blazers rank dead last in Defensive Rating this season and they have given up 111.7 points per game. They allow the second-highest field goal percentage with 47.7%. This is a great bounceback game for George, but I recommend prioritizing him on FanDuel over DraftKings. He is projected for 25% ownership on FanDuel.
Top Value: Kelly Oubre vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $5,800 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
I realize that Kelly Oubre isn’t all that cheap, but he is the highest rated small forward on DraftKings tonight. With LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier out, Oubre had a fantastic game last night. He finished with 28 points on 11-17 shooting from the field in a season-high 39 minutes.
Not only is Oubre getting a boost in playing time and usage, but he has been playing awesome lately. Oubre has a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games and has scored over 20 points in five of those six, with his lone miss scoring 18 points. He has averaged a 24.9% usage rate during that time as well. The best part about Oubre recently is that he is putting up a high volume of shots. He has averaged 16.8 field goal attempts per game in his last six games and has made 4.2 3-pointers made per game during that stretch.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Miles Bridges vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $7,700 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
Oh look, another Charlotte Hornets player! It is a little crazy on a 10-game slate to recommend three players from the same team, but here we are. Miles Bridges is the third and the worst Pts/Sal option of the three in our model. However, he is very difficult to ignore. Bridges went off for 32 points, four rebounds, four assists, three steals, and one block last night for 53 DraftKings points in 40 minutes.
Bridges was struggling as last night was his first positive Plus/Minus game on DraftKings in four straight games. He certainly got out of the funk with that game. Bridges has the highest upside of the three Hornets players and this game has a reasonable total of 217.5 which is the third highest on the slate. You can use all three of these Hornets players, or pick your favorite by position. If I had to rank them by interest I would go in order; Smith, Oubre, Bridges. Can’t go wrong with any of these options though.
Top Value: Darius Bazley vs. Charlotte Hornets – $4,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
The OKC Thunder had a long time to think about their historic loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. They haven’t played a game since then and that was played last Thursday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains out, but they do get a few pieces back so hopefully this game on the road against the Pistons won’t get too out of hand. The Pistons are favored by five points tonight.
With this game being the lowest total on the slate at 204 points, I would much rather search for value and that is what I found in Darius Bazley. He has seen a price decrease on DraftKings which makes him pop in our model. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus at power forward and is the best value at the position. It has been a struggle for Bazley and the Thunder, but I think they can bounceback in this matchup against the Pistons who rank 22nd in Defensive Rating this season.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Chicago Bulls – $12,000 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel
The highest priced player on DraftKings also has the highest ceiling in our model tonight. That would be Nikola Jokic. It is good to have Jokic back in our lives after he missed four games. He is averaging a career-high 1.77 DraftKings points per minute. He is shooting a career-high 59% from the field and also averaging a career-high 13.6 rebounds per game which is the second most in the league.
There is no doubt that Jokic is matchup-proof, but this spot against the Chicago Bulls is tough. The Bulls rank seventh in Defensive Rating and have only allowed 108.9 points per game at home this season. They rank 13th in Pace while the Nuggets rank last, so at least this is a pace-up spot for Jokic. He has had a double-double in 14 of his 17 games played. His upside is high and he is very safe to roster.
Top Value: Isaiah Stewart vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
It has taken Isaiah Stewart awhile to get going this year, but now he is finally starting to roll. He has back-to-back games getting his first double-doubles of the season averaging 13.5 points per game and 14 rebounds per game. Stewart has had over a +14 Plus/Minus in both of those games while playing 33 and 35 minutes. The price tag on both sites has come up, but I still think he is a great value play.
Stewart gets a dream matchup against the Thunder who just got absolutely obliterated by the Memphis Grizzlies 152-79. Over their last three games, the Thunder have allowed a league-high 60.7 points per game allowed in the paint. If Stewart can stay out of foul trouble which has been a problem for him, he should dominate against this undersized frontcourt.
Note: Isaiah Stewart is only PF eligible on FanDuel.
