On tap for Friday is a huge 11-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Brooklyn Nets – $11,400 DraftKings, $12,300 FanDuel
Doncic brings one of the highest ceilings on the slate tonight in FantasyLabs models and is a player you must have some exposure to. Despite being questionable with a calf injury heading into Wednesday’s season opener vs. the Spurs, Doncic dominated the division rival with a huge triple-double worth 72.25 DraftKings points in 34.4 minutes, behind a colossal 37.1% usage rate. Following this victory, the Mavs now head back to Dallas for their home opener vs. the Nets.
Via the FantasyLabs Vegas page, this contest carries the second-highest total on the board (230 points), and the Mavs boast the second-largest implied team total on the board (118 points). Doncic was 3.9 DraftKings PPG better on his home floor last season compared to when on the road and topped 60 DraftKings points in 11 of his 16 starts when at home playing and playing behind an implied team total of at least 115 points, via the Trends Tool.
Value: Jeremy Sochan vs. Houston Rockets – $5,000 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
Sochan got the start at point for the Spurs on Wednesday and didn’t disappoint, posting 32 DraftKings points across 28.4 minutes vs. the Mavs. The 20-year-old was just two rebounds away from a double-double and garnered a 25.9% usage rate, which ranked second only to Victor Wembanyama for the team. Sochan should hover around 30 minutes again tonight and is in a great spot to continue his strong start to the season, going against a Rockets defense that ranked dead last in efficiency last season and just allowed 116 points to the Magic in their season opener Wednesday.
San Antonio sports a high implied team total of 114.25 points tonight, and Sochan is providing 31.6 DraftKings PPG for the last 10 instances he has cracked the 25-minute mark.
Top Ceiling: Desmond Bane vs. Denver Nuggets – $8,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
With the Grizzlies missing Ja Morant (suspension), Steven Adams (knee), Brandon Clarke (Achilles), and Santi Aldma (ankle) on Wednesday, Bane stepped up and delivered 52.25 DraftKings points in 36.1 minutes vs. the Pelicans with a team-high 30.9% usage rate. On top of all those players remaining unavailable tonight, Luke Kennard (concussion) has also been ruled out for Memphis, putting even more weight on Bane’s shoulders.
A usage rate north of 30% is almost guaranteed for Bane again tonight, and another effort over 50 fantasy points is a strong possibility.
Value: Caris LeVert vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,900 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Jarrett Allen (ankle) will remain sidelined tonight, making LeVert an appealing target, despite that he will likely still come off the bench. With Allen inactive Wednesday, LeVert recorded 27.75 DraftKings points in 31.2 minutes off the bench vs. the Nets. Being the second unit’s top option translated into a healthy usage rate for the wing. LeVert is averaging 27.5 DraftKings PPG with Allen out of the lineup over the last two seasons via the On/Off tool and has 30 fantasy point upside vs. the Thunder tonight. In this spot, the Cavs carry the sixth-highest implied team total on the slate (115.25 points).
Due note that Darius Garland (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Cleveland but played through this same tag Wednesday. The guard should suit up, but in the event, Garland is surprisingly inactive, LeVert would become an even better option and a very tough fade at only $4,900 on DraftKings.
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Top Ceiling: Mikal Bridges at Dallas Mavericks – $7,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
Competing in the second-highest total on the slate (230 points), Bridges is an amazing GPP spend tonight that shouldn’t come with much ownership. In a difficult matchup vs. the Cavs on Wednesday, Bridges tallied 38 DraftKings points across 35 minutes with a 23% usage rate. The ex-Sun was the only Net to log over 30 minutes in the loss and should continue to operate as the team’s main player all season long.
Dallas finished 25th in defensive efficiency last season, and Bridges exceeded 40 DraftKings points at 57% clip last season when competing in a total of at least 230 points via the Trends Tool.
Value: Dillon Brooks at San Antonio Spurs – $5,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Despite the Rockets getting torched by 30 points vs. the Magic on Wednesday, Brooks still delivered 25 DraftKings points in 26.1 minutes. If this contest didn’t get out of hand, the forward surely would have seen over 30 minutes, and Brooks should eclipse that mark tonight. In addition to this matchup vs. the Spurs carrying a healthy total of 225 points, this tilt should be competitive from start to finish, with San Antonio only favored by two points.
The veteran amassed 0.82 DraftKings PPM last season and 25.5 DraftKings PPG in spreads under three points. Plus, given how unpopular Brooks is, he will almost certainly come with very little ownership in GPPs.
Top Ceiling: Victor Wembanyama vs. Houston Rockets – $8,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
Wembanayama’s NBA debut was a slight disappointment, with the rookie finishing with 29.25 DraftKings points Wednesday vs. the Mavs. Wembanayama only logged 23.2 minutes in the loss, but this was a result of foul trouble. With the debut jitters behind him, Wembanayama should play smarter tonight and avoid foul trouble, which should translate into a minimum of 30 minutes for the prodigy in this excellent matchup vs. the Rockets, who, as noted above, finished second to last in defensive efficiency a year ago.
Including the preseason, Wembanayama has led the Spurs with a 33.2% usage rate and 1.5 DraftKings PPM this year. These are truly elite numbers, and perusing the rookie’s massive ceiling tonight is a wise move for GPPs, as most DFS players are likely to fade Wembanayama after his underwhelming debut.
Value: Keegan Murray vs. Golden State Warriors – $5,200 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Murray got his sophomore season off to a terrific start Wednesday, scoring 34.5 DraftKings points across 29.4 minutes in the 16-point win over the Jazz. The 23-year-old saw 16 first-half minutes in this victory, meaning Murray would have approached 35 minutes if this contest stayed competitive, which should be the case for tonight’s matchup vs. the Warriors.
The Kings are only favored by 2.5 points for this rematch from last year’s playoffs. More importantly, this tilt’s total is up a huge 238.5 points – which is the high mark of this 11-game slate by a whopping 8.5 points – and Sacramento’s implied team total is the largest on the board (120.25 points). Having exposure to this expected shootout is a must tonight, and Murray is one of the best values available to attack in this contest. Including two efforts vs. this Warriors team, Murray has exceeded 30 DraftKings points in each of the last three Kings games that have presented a total of at least 235 points.
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis vs. Golden State Warriors – $10,200 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
Sabonis is underpriced for the upside he brings in this high-scoring affair vs. the Warriors. The center finished with 51 DraftKings points in Wednesday’s convincing win over the Jazz, and tonight’s contest will be at home in Sacramento, where Sabonis was nearly three DraftKings points better than when on the road last season. Additionally, Draymond Green (ankle) is out for Golden State, certainly making this an easier matchup for Sabonis.
When at home and playing in a total of 235 points or greater last season, Sabonis scored over 50 DraftKings points 60% of the time via the Trends Tool.
Value: Day’Ron Sharpe at Dallas Mavericks – $3,300 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
While priced more correctly on FanDuel and a solid GPP target on that site, Sharpe needs to be one of your core plays at only $3,300 on DraftKings, regardless that he is expected to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate according to FantasyLabs projections. Assuming Sharpe starts in place of the injured Nicholas Claxton (ankle) tonight, he should see a minimum of 20 minutes. While that might not seem like much, Sharpe is a great fantasy asset who contributed 1.1 DraftKings PPM last season.
Furthermore, in the three starts the big man made last season, Sharpe generated 31.3 DraftKings PPG. As noted above, tonight’s matchup in Dallas presents the second-highest total on the board (230 points), and Sharpe is a legitimate threat to exceed 10-times value in this setting if he gets the starting nod.