On the menu for Friday is an eight-game slate on DraftKings. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry vs. Indiana Pacers – $8,600 DraftKings
Curry’s salary has hit a new season low on DraftKings, just in time for a meeting with the Pacers. Indiana ranks second in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency. When these two clubs met back in Indiana last month, Curry lit them up for 54 DraftKings points across only 30 minutes in a 22-point blowout win for the Warriors, which is the third effort of at least 54 DraftKings points in his last four meetings with Pacers. As the 10 seed in the West and only 2.5 games ahead of the red-hot Rockets, who have won seven in a row, every game is crucial for the Warriors right now, and in this terrific spot vs. the Pacers, they carry the second-highest implied team total slate (122 points). Furthermore, this game’s total is the highest on the board (240 points), and Golden State is only favored by five points, via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
Curry is amassing 52.3 DraftKings PPG in totals of 240 points or more this season (10 games) and could erupt in this near-perfect situation.
Top Value: T.J. McConnell at Golden State Warriors – $4,600 DraftKings
Opposite of Curry, McConnell is standing out as a strong, cheap way to attack this slate-high total in Golden State. The veteran is coming off a 26 DraftKings point outing vs. the Bulls, marking McConnell’s fourth straight performance of at least 24 DraftKings points. The main reason for his consistency has been Benedict Mathurin’s (shoulder) absence, who will remain out Friday.
With the guard inactive this season, McConnell is generating 24.6 DraftKings PPG (nine games) with a team-high 28.1% usage rate in those contests, which is a 5.3 percentage point lift from his season average, via the On/Off Tool. McConnell should have zero issues exceeding five-times value in this possible shootout with Golden State and FantasyLabs is projecting him for single-digit ownership on DraftKings.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Derrick White at Detroit Pistons – $7,600 DraftKings
White exposed the Bucks for 47.5 DraftKings points on Wednesday and has now recorded at least 36 DraftKings points in five straight starts. The difference has been that in each of these five games, at least one of the Celtics starters was inactive, which will be the case again tonight. Jrue Holiday (shoulder) has been ruled out, while Jayson Tatum (ankle), Jaylen Brown (ankle) and Kristaps Porzingis (hamstring) are questionable. With Boston 10.5 games ahead of the Bucks for the top seed in the East, they will likely be resting key players every game the rest of the way, and at least one of Tatum, Brown, and Porzingis should join Holiday on the sidelines tonight, especially with the lowly Pistons as the opposition – who rank 26th in defensive efficiency.
White is generating 42 DraftKings PPG with Holiday out this season (eight games) and will bring an even higher ceiling in the likely event that another starter is inactive.
Top Value: Josh Giddey at Toronto Raptors – $5,500 DraftKings
The Thunder head to Toronto tonight to face the struggling Raptors, who have dropped eight in a row. Toronto leads the league in pace this month, and Oklahoma City’s implied team total is the highest on the slate tonight (123.25 points). Having a piece of this squad feels necessary, and Giddey is an affordable way to gain access. The guard is providing 31.7 DraftKings PPG in his last eight and Giddey went off for 44.5 DraftKings points when the Thunder met the Raptors last month.
Giddey shouldn’t be priced under $6,000 in this spot and is a strong target for both cash games and GPPs.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $9,700 DraftKings
While most of DFS players are sleeping on Edwards (questionable, ankle) with the Cavs and their No.4 ranked defense in town – FantasyLabs is projecting him for only 6.5% ownership on DraftKings – we need to be attacking the wing in GPPs. Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) remains sidelined, and with him inactive this season, Edwards has been incredible, scoring 55.6 DraftKings PPG (nine games) with a 36.6% usage rate.
Assuming he plays through his questionable tag like he usually does, Edwards should score nothing less than 50 DraftKings points tonight, regardless of the matchup.
Top Value: GG Jackson at San Antonio Spurs – $6,200 DraftKings
With Desmond Bane (back) limited to only 24 minutes Wednesday vs. the Warriors, Jackson stepped up and delivered a career-best 48.75 DraftKings points across 34.5 minutes. With Bane already ruled out for tonight, Jackson is an easy choice against this Spurs team, that third in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency.
The rookie is supplying 38 DraftKings points in 37.6 minutes per game since becoming a starter for the Grizzlies four games ago, and with Bane off the court since the All-Star Break, Jackson has seen a 26.4% usage rate, which ranks second on the Grizzlies during this time, only trailing Jaren Jackson Jr.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jaren Jackson Jr. at San Antonio Spurs – $8,200 DraftKings
Speaking of Jackson Jr., this is a very reasonable price for the forward. In the 20 starts he has made without Bane this season, Jackson Jr. is leading the Grizzlies with 42.1 DraftKings PPG and a 36.4% usage rate, which is a 5.4 percentage point increase from his average for the season.
Jackson Jr. collects 1.3 DraftKings PPM with Bane off the floor this season, and he brings a huge ceiling against this fast-paced Spurs club.
Top Value: Andrew Wiggins vs. Indiana Pacers – $5,200 DraftKings
Wiggins came alive in Wednesday’s win over the Grizzlies, posting a double-double of 44.5 DraftKings points. While we can’t expect this type of fantasy score again, Wiggins should be able to outperform this modest salary, with the Warriors boasting the second-highest implied team total on the board (122.75 points).
Since moving back into the Warriors’ starting lineup five games ago, Wiggins has recorded at least 24 DraftKings points in all but one game. Plus, when the wing faced the Pacers last month, Wiggins finished with 26 DraftKings points.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $10,600
Davis is one of the best spends on the slate against this 76ers club that is still without Joel Embiid (knee). With the center off the court this season, Philadelphia’s defensive rating has dropped to 117.0, which would rank as the eighth-worst rating in the NBA this season. The 76ers have no player that has any chance of slowing down Davis with Embiid absent, and this is also an important game for the Lakers, with the Warriors only a half-game behind them for the ninth seed in the West.
Los Angeles’ implied team total is the fifth highest on the slate (116.25 points), and they are also 7.5-point favorites over Philadelphia. When competing as a favorite this season, Davis is averaging 53.4 DraftKings PPG (30 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Ivica Zubac at Portland Trail Blazers – $5,400 DraftKings
Zubac has been a thorn in the Blazers’ side all season. The center posted 39.75 DraftKings points vs. Portland on Wednesday, bringing his average against the team this season up to 38.6 DraftKings PPG in three meetings. Zubac has scored at least 32 DraftKings points in all three of these games and is obviously mispriced for his potential in this spot.
The Blazers rank 22nd in defensive efficiency and are allowing the sixth most points in the paint this season, and Zubac is one of the best values available Friday at this low price tag.
