Sunday features a six-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
With Luka Doncic uncertain to play and Ja Morant questionable, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is defaulted to the best stud point guard on the slate. Sundays are always a mess with players sitting out due to injury or rest, making it very important to follow our news dashboard to see who is in and out of the lineup. Priced at $10,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Gilgeous-Alexander is a strong play, as he has poured in back-to-back games with 30-plus points.
The Thunder are 3.5-point home favorites against the potentially Doncic-less Mavericks and are implied for 115.5 points. It has been an impressive year for the 17-22 Thunder, who have played all year without No. 2 overall pick Chet Holmgren. They have been led by Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging a career-high 30.4 points per game while shooting 49.8% from the field. The Mavericks play at a snail’s pace with or without Doncic in the lineup, but Gilgeous-Alexander can still reach value in any game environment. There’s a good chance he ends up being the top fantasy scorer on the slate.
Value
In anticipation of Doncic being out, Spencer Dinwiddie has by far the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate, reaching double digits for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Using our On/Off Tool, Dinwiddie has a +6.8% usage rate and a team-high +7.9 DraftKings Plus/Minus with Doncic off the floor this season. He has a 45.5% assist rate paired with 57% true shooting. He is the best play on the slate, especially on FanDuel where he has a 95% Bargain Rating.
The Thunder rank right outside the top 10 in defensive rating this season, but with so much added usage rate and production without Doncic, it won’t matter at this salary for Dinwiddie. In his first full season with the Mavericks, Dinwiddie is averaging 16.1 points and 5.1 assists per game. However, those numbers increase to 18 points and nine assists per game without Doncic this season. Dinwiddie will be the highest-owned player on the slate, but he is worth it.
Fast Break
Trae Young and Dejounte Murray seem to go back and forth on ceiling games for the Hawks. Despite a tough matchup against the Clippers, both Young and Murray are priced at salaries they can outperform. Clint Capela remains out for the Hawks, so both guards will need a strong game to keep the Hawks competitive, as they have lost five of their last six games. Per usual, Murray is better on FanDuel, while Young is best option on DraftKings.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Shooting guard is another position where two of the top options are questionable with injuries. That would be Anthony Edwards and Paul George, making Donovan Mitchell the stud shooting guard Sunday. Mitchell missed last game due to rest, but he should be good to go for this matchup against the reeling Suns, who have lost eight of their last nine games. Six days ago, Mitchell went for 71 points and 11 assists. It’s safe to say he has a high ceiling.
After a three-game absence, Darius Garland returned against the Nuggets, but is back on the injury report as questionable Sunday. In eight games without Garland, Mitchell is averaging 33.5 points per game with a 34.3% usage rate. He looks much better without Garland in the lineup, but he can exploit this Suns team even if Garland plays. In his first season with the Cavaliers, Mitchell is averaging a career-high 29 points per game while shooting a career-best from the field, from behind the arc, and from the charity stripe.
Value
Looking to go dumpster diving? Then Jaden Hardy is the best option. The rookie has put together back-to-back games with 15 points while shooting 12 of 17 from the field and 4 of 5 from behind the arc. He has played 15 and 21 minutes during those two games, and now with Doncic likely out, our Tournament Model has Hardy projected for 25 minutes. Hardy is priced barely above the stone minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is one of the best values for both sites.
After putting up over 20 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, Hardy can thrive in this matchup if he gets it cooking from long distance. Not only is Doncic likely out, but Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, and Josh Green are already ruled out, solidifying the playing time for Hardy. Even though there are 12 teams on this slate, it makes sense to get exposure to several Mavericks players. After all, Doncic leads this team in points, rebounds, assists, and steals this season.
Fast Break
The Rockets are the only team in the league that has 10 wins this season. Jalen Green has seen his salary rise rapidly on both sites, but it is deserving as he is averaging a career-high 21.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game. This game against the Timberwolves features a 230-point total, as the Timberwolves are playing at the fifth-fastest pace in the league. Green can be scoring dependent, but can drop 30-plus any given night.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Kevin Durant could easily be the highest-priced player on the slate if injuries to the top point guards keep them from playing Sunday. The Nets have won 17 of their last 19 games, and they are 3.5-point road favorites against the Heat. Durant has put up over 50 DraftKings points in five of his last six games and is averaging 30 points per game for the first time since the 2013-14 season. He is also shooting a career-high 56% from the field, which is absurd for basically a guard.
Over the last five games, Durant has had three double-doubles: two with double-digit rebounds and one with assists. Durant is matchup-proof, but this is a tougher spot against the Heat who rank eighth in defensive rating and 28th in pace (97.4) entering Sunday’s games. Over the last two games, Durant has made 9 of 17 3-pointers, which also increases his upside. Similar to Gilgeous-Alexander, Durant could easily be the highest scorer on the slate.
Value
Continuing the Mavericks value with forward Tim Hardaway Jr., who is guard and forward eligible on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He ranks second behind Dinwiddie with the highest projected Plus/Minus on both sites. Using our On/Off Tool, it is Hardaway Jr. who has a team-high +7.8% usage rate without Doncic on the floor. With a near 30% usage rate, Hardaway Jr. looks incredible on this slate priced under $6,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Most of Hardaway Jr.’s fantasy production comes from scoring the ball, and he has been very boom or bust shooting the ball all season long. Overall, he is shooting a career-low 38.7% from the field, as 67% of his field goal attempts come from behind the arc. The Thunder rank 20th in 3-point attempts allowed with 35.5 per game. If Hardaway Jr. can get cooking from deep with the extra usage, he is going to be a phenomenal value on this six-game slate.
Fast Break
Kawhi Leonard is expected to play while Paul George is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. Leonard was playing 35-plus minutes over his last few games before a minor knee injury and now is projected to play 34 minutes against a Hawks team that ranks sixth in pace this season. This matchup has a 233-point total, which is the second-highest on the slate. If George is out, Leonard looks like a very strong play priced in the upper mid-range.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The Jazz have fallen off a cliff after their hot start this season and find themselves two games under .500 with a road matchup against the Grizzlies as 7.5-point underdogs. One Jazz player who hasn’t fallen off is Lauri Markkanen, who leads the team with a career-high 24.6 points per game. His first season with the Jazz has been a major success, as he is shooting a career-best from the field, from behind the arc, and from the free-throw line.
The Grizzlies lead the league in Defensive Rating (109), entering Sunday’s games and rank fourth in points allowed in the paint with 45.9 per game this season. However, with Steven Adams questionable to play, this defense could take a major hit, especially defending the paint. Over the last two games, Markkanen is averaging 38.5 points per game while shooting 57.4% from the field. If Adams is out, Markkanen looks like an incredible play on both sites.
Value
Another player who is going to benefit from the potential absence of Adams is Grizzlies big man Xavier Tillman. He is center-only eligible on DraftKings, but is power forward eligible on FanDuel. He isn’t popular now, but expect his ownership to rise if Adams is ruled out. Brandon Clarke is already out for the fourth-straight game, which has increased Tillman’s playing time. Over the last three games, Tillman is averaging 17.8 DraftKings points per game.
This is a fantastic matchup for Tillman, as the Jazz are allowing a league-high 55.4 points per game in the paint this season. During that three-game stretch with extra playing time, Tillman is shooting 56.3% from the field. He also has rebounding upside, as he has averaged seven per game in his last two games. Another player priced near the stone minimum, Tillman could really explode in this spot if Adams is out. It may come down to whether his salary relief is even needed.
Fast Break
Christian Wood is another Mavericks player who could also have a massive game without Doncic on Sunday. In the three games that Doncic has missed this season, Wood is averaging a double-double with 24.3 points and 10.3 rebounds per game. He is scoring over 47 DraftKings points per game, which is much higher than his 32.5 DraftKings points with Doncic playing. Load up on the Mavericks and don’t forget about Wood, even with his higher price tag.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
The top of the center position is a ghost town. Bam Adebayo is the highest-priced player, but he is questionable to play. Rudy Gobert looks like the best option, as he is coming off a 25-point, 21-rebound game against the Clippers Friday night. He shot 11 of 15 from the field, and he has put together back-to-back double-doubles. With Karl-Anthony Towns still out due to injury, Gobert has a much higher ceiling paired with a 20.1% rebound rate.
The Rockets have been great defending the paint as well as rebounding the ball, but priced under $7,000 on DraftKings, Gobert has an 85% Bargain Rating. The Timberwolves are two-point road favorites against the Rockets, and they may also be playing without Anthony Edwards, who left last game with a hip injury and is questionable Sunday. Don’t be deterred by the emergence of Naz Reid, as he is also questionable. Gobert has the highest ceiling at the center position.
Value
Ivica Zubac remains a mystery, as his playing time has been all over the place this season regardless of who is in or out of the Clippers lineup. His minutes are tough to project, but our model has him in line to play 30 minutes with the highest projected Plus/Minus at the center position on DraftKings. At $5,100 on DraftKings, Zubac has a 91% Bargain Rating, as he has double-double upside despite not recording one in four-straight games.
Even with his recent struggles, Zubac is averaging a double-double for the first time in his career. If he gets extended playing time like we project, Zubac is going to feast on a Hawks frontcourt that is without Clint Capela. The Hawks defense is allowing 53.7 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks as the fifth-highest in the league. That number has increased to 61.3 in their last three games. Get Zubac the minutes and he will dominate this salary.
Fast Break
There are a few other mid-range center options worth getting exposure to, as Deandre Ayton looks like the best play in this pricing tier outside of Gobert. Devin Booker is already out and Chris Paul is questionable with another injury, which will boost the ceiling for Ayton. He has back-to-back games with over 40 DraftKings points and is averaging 19 points and 16 rebounds during that time. The Cavaliers are solid guarding the paint defensively, but the added usage rate and production for Ayton should be enough to be a strong value play at this mid-range salary.
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