Wednesday features a two-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Jrue Holiday has been asked to take on a larger offensive role with Khris Middleton sidelined in this series. He’s posted a usage rate of 29.7% vs. the Celtics, which represents a massive increase from his regular-season average of 23.5%. That jives with Holiday’s marks during the regular season, where he led the team with a +4.8% usage rate bump with Middleton off the floor. Holiday has also played at least 40.9 minutes in each of the past two games, and he should be looking at another sizeable workload in a crucial Game 5.
Tyus Jones is easily the top value on Wednesday’s slate. Ja Morant has been ruled out for Game 5 vs. the Warriors, and he’s doubtful to suit up for the remainder of the postseason. The Grizzlies’ postseason run would end with a loss on Wednesday but expect them to give a solid effort at home. They actually increased their Net Rating with Morant off the floor during the regular season, and they were 20-2 in their first 22 games without Morant.
Jones entered the starting lineup in place of Morant on Monday, and he provided elite production. He racked up 37.0 DraftKings points over 41.2 minutes, and Jones has thrived in that role all year. He’s increased his production to 0.90 DraftKings points per minute in games without Morant, so he’s nearly impossible to fade at his current price tag.
Steph Curry could be a bit overlooked on this slate. He will likely garner less ownership than some of the other top options, which is always appealing in DFS. He’s coming off 52.75 DraftKings points in his last outing – good for a Plus/Minus of +5.19 – despite shooting just 40% from the field and 28.6% from 3-point range. He’s yet to have a true Curry-like performance during the postseason, but it remains within his range of outcomes.
Jordan Poole also continues to play big minutes for the Warriors. His role has shrunk a bit since moving back to the bench, but he’s projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models. He averaged 0.99 FanDuel points per minute this season, so that’s enough for him to potentially return value. Poole also leads the position with an 85% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Jaylen Brown is coming off a down performance in Game 4, finishing with just 25.25 DraftKings points over 32.1 minutes. He struggled with foul trouble, and he was also a bit less aggressive offensively, with his usage rate of 22.6% serving as a new postseason low. Brown isn’t a priority pay-up target on this slate, but expect him to bounce back a bit on Wednesday.
The Bucks have played a bit of a smaller lineup in their past two games, with Grayson Allen replacing Bobby Portis as a starter. Pat Connaughton has also seen a larger role off the bench, racking up at least 30.3 minutes in back-to-back games. He’s responded with at least 24.0 DraftKings points in both contests, which is nice production at a sub-$4k price tag. He’s a capable per minute producer – he averaged 0.77 DKFP per minute this season – so he should continue to return value with increased playing time. His $3,800 price tag also results in a position-high 94% Bargain Rating.
Desmond Bane is one of the most interesting players on this slate. He’s been priced down across the industry, and he obviously has more opportunities to score the ball with Morant out of the lineup. That said, he has really struggled recently and appears to be battling an injury. He posted just a 10.3% usage rate without Morant in his last game, despite averaging a 24.3% usage rate in games without Morant during the regular season. As tempting as his price tag looks, it could be a trap.
Derrick White was excellent for the Celtics in their last game, finishing with 23.0 DraftKings points over 34.3 minutes. He will likely lose some minutes if Robert Williams is able to return to the lineup, but he’s worth consideration at just $3,700 on DraftKings.
Jayson Tatum had another quiet first half in Game 4, but he put together a massive second half to help lead the Celtics to victory. He finished with 21 points, six rebounds, and five assists in the final 24 minutes, and he finished with 55.75 DraftKings points for the game.
Tatum has also seen a slight price decrease for Game 5, which makes him a bit more palatable. He doesn’t have the same upside as Giannis Antetokounmpo, but he has the potential to outscore everyone else on Wednesday’s slate.
Dillon Brooks finished with 31.25 DraftKings points in Game 4 vs. the Warriors, which was enough for him to return value. Still, his performance could’ve been so much better. He was unusually productive in the peripheral categories, tallying eight assists and five rebounds, but he struggled as a scorer. He made just five of 19 shots from the field and two of nine shots from 3-point range, so he should progress in both areas on Wednesday. Brooks averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute in games without Morant during the regular season, and he played nearly 39 minutes in Game 4. He’s a steal at just $5,600.
Allen is an interesting pivot away from the more popular Connaughton. He hasn’t been nearly as effective recently, but both players have been playing approximately the same number of minutes. Allen has also been a comparable per-minute producer this season, and he’s the better pure value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 73%.
Andrew Wiggins has quietly been a nice source of value for the Warriors of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in all four games vs. the Grizzlies, including 37.5 FanDuel points in Game 4. His price has remained pretty stagnant, so he’s worth consideration once again.
With so much value available with the Grizzlies, locking in Giannis Antetokounmpo is a no-brainer. He continues to put up absurd numbers, even in a brutal matchup vs. the Celtics. He’s scored at least 63.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he’s increased his usage rate to 42.4% in this series. Antetokounmpo posted a usage rate of 34.9% during the regular season, and he averaged 1.76 DraftKings points per minute. That means his upside with a usage rate of greater than 40% is absurd.
Otto Porter has been a solid yet unspectacular producer for the Warriors in this round of the playoffs. He’s racked up at least 21.2 minutes in all four games vs. the Grizzlies, and he’s returned positive value in each of them. That includes three performances with at least 22.0 DraftKings points. He has gotten a bit more expensive of late, but his $4,200 salary remains reasonable. He’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to return value.
Draymond Green has struggled in this round of the playoffs, posting a negative Plus/Minus in all four games on FanDuel. That’s caused his salary to dip to just $6,000, and he has some buy-low appeal at that number. His Bargain Rating of 83% is tied for the second-best mark at the position.
Kyle Anderson was tremendous for the Grizzlies in Game 4, racking up a ridiculous 40.6 FanDuel points in just 22.8 minutes. I would not expect a repeat performance, but he’s still capable of paying off his current price tag. He’s averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute this season, so 23 minutes gives him a shot to return value.
Jaren Jackson Jr. might be the sneakiest option for the Grizzlies on Wednesday. He led the team in usage in games without Morant during the regular season, and he posted a 30.3% usage rate sans Morant on Monday. He finished with 41.25 DraftKings points over 33.9 minutes, but his numbers were kept in check by some pedestrian shooting. JJJ was just 7-21 from the field and 0-7 from 3-point range, and he should be better in both areas on Wednesday. Overall, he has massive upside for his salary.
Steven Adams is easily the best punt play on Wednesday’s slate. He re-entered the Grizzlies’ starting lineup in Game 4 and provided huge value, finishing with 37.75 DraftKings points over 27.2 minutes. The Grizzlies were also +13 with Adams on the court, so expect a similar role for him in Game 5. Adams has averaged 1.03 DKFP per minute this season, so he’s ridiculously underpriced at just $3,400.
Al Horford has been outstanding for the Celtics recently. He’s scored at least 35.5 FanDuel points in all four games vs. the Bucks, including at least 42.7 FanDuel points in each of his past three. However, he’s been priced up drastically for Game 5, and he is due for some regression. He shot a ridiculous 11-14 from the field and 5-7 from 3-point range in his last outing, so I prefer Jackson at a cheaper price tag.
Horford could also lose a bit of value if Robert Williams is able to suit up. Williams has been playing reduced minutes of late, but he racked up 32.25 DraftKings points over 23.3 minutes in his last outing. He has some viability at just $5,000 on DraftKings.