Wednesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Despite this being an 11-game main slate, the stud options on Wednesday are a bit thin. Most of the best players in fantasy were active last night, so guys like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, and Kevin Durant are not available.
That makes Luka Doncic even more valuable than usual. He racked up 75.0 DraftKings points in just 30 minutes in a demolition of the Lakers on Tuesday, and he should be asked to do a bit more than usual with Spencer Dinwiddie out of the lineup vs. the Cavaliers.
Tyus Jones finally let us down in his last outing, but it wasn’t entirely his fault. He was still pretty effective on a per-minute basis, but he was limited to just 25.7 minutes in a blowout victory vs. the Warriors. Wednesday’s game vs. the Spurs is expected to be more competitive, with the Grizzlies listed as just 5.5-point road favorites.
As long as Jones returns to his usual workload, he’s a good bet to pay off this price tag. He’s averaged just under 30 minutes per game in 20 games without Ja Morant this season, and he’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute in those contests.
The Timberwolves have hit a rough patch following an excellent stretch, dropping three of their past four games. D’Angelo Russell’s numbers have suffered during those contests, which has caused his salary to plummet to $5,500 on FanDuel. That’s a ridiculous price tag for Russell, who has averaged 1.07 FanDuel points per minute this season. The Timberwolves face another tough matchup Wednesday vs. the Raptors, but this price tag is too good to pass up.
Ish Smith is another potential source of value at the position, particularly at $3,800 on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 22 minutes in our NBA Models. His matchup vs. the Magic is also a good one, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.55.
Tre Mann is currently questionable, and it certainly wouldn’t be a shock if he ended up sitting. The Thunder are in hardcore tank mode at the moment, and Mann is one of their better remaining players.
If he is active, Mann should serve as one of the Thunder’s primary scoring threats vs. the Hawks. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight straight games prior to sitting in their last contest, and he’s displayed a ceiling of more than 50 DraftKings points. It’s not a stretch to call him a stud.
The Knicks are finally – finally! – starting to give Immanuel Quickley the run he deserves. It only took Tom Thibodeau 75 games, but better late than never. The Knicks have quietly won four straight games, and Quickley has logged at least 27 minutes in each of his past two. That number could be even higher on Wednesday if Evan Fournier is ultimately ruled out.
Quickley is capable of doing a ton of damage with that much playing time. He’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s increased that figure to 1.13 over the past month. The Hornets haven’t been nearly as good of a matchup recently as they were at the beginning of the year, but they still rank merely 20th in defensive rating over their past 10 games.
Caris LeVert is no longer on a minute restriction, and he’s logged at least 32.8 minutes in back-to-back games. He hasn’t taken advantage from a fantasy perspective – he finished with 28.75 DraftKings points in both contests – but he has the potential for bigger performances moving forward. LeVert has averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s underpriced across the industry.
The Blazers’ lineup is an absolute abomination at this point, but it has created some fantasy value. I have no idea if Keon Johnson is actually good at basketball, but he’s projected for 32 minutes at just $3,900 on FanDuel. It’s hard to beat that combo. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.83 (per the Trends tool).
The Kings are another team with nothing to play for at this point, but Harrison Barnes is still logging all the minutes he can handle. He’s played at least 37.9 minutes in three of his past four games, and there’s no reason to think they’ll ease up on him now. Barnes hasn’t been quite as effective on a per-minute basis recently, but he has a bit more upside than usual vs. the Rockets. They’ve been the best matchup in fantasy this season, ranking second in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency.
On the other side of that matchup, Garrison Mathews stands out as a viable punt play. He’s near the minimum at just $3,200 on DraftKings, and he’s currently projected for 24 minutes in our NBA Models. Mathews is a dreadful per-minute producer, but players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.55.
The Kings are also a great matchup, ranking 28th in defensive efficiency for the year.
Anthony Edwards is another potential option for the Timberwolves. He’s not quite as big of a bargain as Russell, but he still stands out as underpriced across the industry. His $6,700 salary on FanDuel is particularly egregious, and Edwards has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.10 with a comparable price tag.
Kyle Anderson has been a nice option recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games on FanDuel. He also has the potential to see a few additional minutes on Wednesday. Jaren Jackson Jr. is questionable, and the Grizzlies could exercise caution with their star big man given their position in the standings. If he’s ruled out, Anderson would become one of the best values on the slate.
Alperen Sengun is currently questionable, but he should be a popular option if he’s able to suit up. He’s been a fantastic fantasy producer as a rookie, averaging 1.13 DKFP per minute, but he’s played limited minutes behind Christian Wood. Wood has been ruled out for the Rockets on Wednesday, so Sengun should see a sizable boost in value. He’s played at least 26 minutes in seven previous games this season, and he’s averaged 37.11 DraftKings points in those contests. He should easily eclipse that threshold if he’s active vs. the Kings.
Jae’Sean Tate is another player who should see a boost in playing time. Dennis Schroder and Eric Gordon will join Wood on the sidelines, and Tate has already been a nice source of value recently. He’s scored at least 21.75 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, and his 27.7 minutes in his last outing was his highest output since the end of February. He’s a very reasonable option at just $4,500 on DraftKings.
Kevin Love’s minutes have been up and down all year, but the Cavaliers are going to have to lean on him on Wednesday. Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, and Dean Wade are all out of the lineup, so the Cavs’ usually deep frontcourt is actually pretty thin. Love has averaged an elite 1.26 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s always appealing when he’s expected to see more playing time than usual.
Chuma Okeke has some appeal for the Magic, who are going to be playing without Wendell Carter Jr. on Wednesday. Okeke has provided solid value in games without WCJ this season, and he’s played at least 34.2 minutes in two of his past three games. He’s a nice value at just $4,600 on FanDuel.
Nikola Jokic headlines the position on Wednesday, but it’s hard to get too excited about him vs. the Pacers. The Nuggets are listed as 9.5-point road favorites, so the Nuggets shouldn’t need a huge performance from Jokic in this spot.
Instead, I’d rather pivot to Kristaps Porzingis. He has been fantastic since joining the Wizards’ rotation, averaging 1.44 DraftKings points per minute. He’s also playing around 30 minutes per night, and his role should remain the same with Kyle Kuzma expected to sit. Porzingis has returned value in five of his past seven games, and I see no reason why he can’t do it again vs. the Magic.
The Thunder have been demolished by opposing centers recently, giving Onyeka Okongwu one of the best matchups at the position. He’s served as the Hawks’ clear No. 2 center behind Clint Capela, but that could actually work in his favor on Wednesday. He should see around 20 minutes if this game goes as expected – especially with Danilo Gallinari out and De’Andre Hunter questionable – and he has the potential for a few additional minutes if this game turns into a blowout. Okongwu has averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to return value.
DeMarcus Cousins is an interesting tournament option on Wednesday. He has the chance to pay off his salary in his usual playing time, and he could see a few additional minutes if the Nuggets turn this game into a blowout. Cousins has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he has excellent upside in that situation.