Thursday features a three-game slate starting at 10 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Sitting at 10-4, the Trial Blazers have the best record in the Western Conference, but they are 1.5-point favorites over the Nets on Wednesday. Damian Lillard has only played in nine games this season but is averaging 27.9 points per game and has back-to-back games with double-digit assists. When Lillard plays, the Trail Blazers have a 7-2 record while scoring 112.3 points per game.
A matchup against the Nets’ defense looks quite juicy, as they gave up a league-high 153 points last game against the Kings. The Nets have lost back-to-back games against the Kings and Lakers, and the games were not even that close. They rank 21st in Defensive Rating (112.7) entering tonight’s games. This may turn into a Lillard and Kevin Durant shootout, which would be very exciting to watch.
Value
Despite his salary increasing to over $6,000 on both sites, Tre Jones has the highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings at the point guard position. After a scorching start, the Spurs have cooled off, losing seven of their last eight games. Even though they are seven-point underdogs, they are implied for the second-highest total on the slate at 114.75 points. This matchup against the Kings has a very high 236.5 total.
Through 15 games this season, the Spurs and Kings rank seventh and eighth in Pace. This is going to be a track meet, which bodes well for Jones. Starting every game this season, Jones is averaging a career-high 11.6 points per game while leading the Spurs in assists and steals. He is shooting over 40% from behind the arc and has recorded a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in 10 of his 14 games.
Fast Break
De’Aaron Fox could easily be in the stud category, but as long as Lillard is suiting up, he gets the nod. Not only is Fox scoring 24.6 points per game, but he is shooting a career-high 54.1% from the field. Over the last four games, Fox is also averaging 9.3 assists per game. The Kings have the highest total on the slate at 122.5 points, which makes Fox and company the best team to get exposure to on this small three-game slate.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Paul George is questionable to play tonight, so we’ll need to monitor the news dashboard throughout the day. It has been a while since we have seen a true ceiling game from George. Since erupting for 75.25 DraftKings points against the Rockets, George has averaged 42.8 DraftKings points over eight games. Playing without Kawhi Leonard, George can still reach his ceiling outcome if he plays.
The Clippers are almost double-digit home favorites against the Pistons, who are playing without star point guard Cade Cunningham. They currently rank dead last in Defensive Rating (117.6) and are allowing 118.2 points per game, which ranks as the second-highest in the league. This is an excellent spot for George, but it could also be a great spot for him to sit.
Value
The Nets desperately need to get someone else going other than Kevin Durant. Joe Harris is a great candidate if he can start seeing some shots fall from the perimeter. He has started the last nine games but is shooting a career-low 39.4% from the field and 33.3% from behind the arc. Harris is still a great value across the industry at a very cheap salary, and the Nets need him to score without Kyrie Irving on the floor.
Over 65% of Harris’ field goal attempts come from downtown, which makes him slightly better on DraftKings with the 3-point bonus. The Trail Blazers have been pretty strong defensively to start the season and rank around the middle of the pack in defending the 3-point shot. However, playing alongside Durant, who draws so much attention, Harris will find himself open behind the arc several times tonight. The big question is: Will he make the shot?
Fast Break
Devin Vassell has had a mediocre last few games but comes into tonight with the perfect combination of ceiling and value. On FanDuel, Vassell has the highest projected Plus/Minus and the second-highest ceiling behind George at the shooting guard position. He is second on the team in usage rate and scoring, averaging a career-high 19.6 points per game. Vassell has scored 20+ points in eight of his 11 games this season.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Keldon Johnson is another Spurs player worth getting exposure to on this small three-game slate. The small forward position is a little weak, so he will get classified in this stud position. Johnson has been a little boom or bust lately but continues to lead the Spurs in usage rate with a career-high 27.7%. He is averaging 22.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.6 assists while attempting nearly 17 field goal attempts per game.
The Kings allow their opponents to shoot 38.1% from behind the arc, which ranks tied for the sixth-highest in the league. That is great news for Johnson, who shoots over half of his field goal attempts from downtown. He is averaging 3.7 made 3-pointers per game, which ranks him tied with Lillard for seventh in the league. This sharpshooter can score points in a hurry, and this is a great game environment to do so.
Value
Don’t be thrown off by Royce O’Neale‘s last game, where he scored only six DraftKings points. The Nets got beaten by 32 points, and most of the starters didn’t play in the fourth quarter. O’Neale played a season-low 24 minutes while only attempting four field goals. The Nets should bounce back tonight, and if anything, it gave O’Neale’s legs some rest after averaging a career-high 35.5 minutes per game.
O’Neale is a great mid-range value play on this small slate due to the high minutes and how involved he is offensively. The offense runs through Kevin Durant, but O’Neale is averaging a career-high in points and field goal attempts per game. Add that to his career-high in assists, steals, and blocks, and O’Neale looks like a very strong play as the Nets try and rebound with a win against the Trail Blazers tonight.
Fast Break
A big reason why the Kings have been on this winning streak is the addition of Kevin Huerter. In his first season with the Kings, Huerter ranks third on the team in scoring while shooting a career-high 51.4% from the field and 52.6% from behind the arc. He has averaged 3.8 3-pointers made per game and has made at least four in each of his last five games. Playing against the Spurs, who allow the most points per game in the league, Huerter will fill it up again.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
This may be the last game Kevin Durant plays before the return of Kyrie Irving, as he is expected back as soon as Sunday. Durant’s salary has risen to $11,500 on FanDuel and $11,600 on DraftKings, and he is by far the highest-priced player on the slate. He played a season-low 31 minutes in their blowout loss last game but extended his streak of at least 25 points to 15-straight games.
Durant is the obvious pay-up option on the slate if value pops up throughout the day, especially if George gets ruled out. That would likely increase his ownership, but it is very deserving since raw points matter so much on a small slate. He is actually shooting and scoring more with Irving on the floor with him this season, but Durant’s peripherals skyrocket with Irving off the floor.
Value
The playing time may fluctuate more than we’re used to, but Marcus Morris provides incredible value on this slate, especially on FanDuel. At his $5,500 salary on FanDuel, Morris has a 93% Bargain Rating and has returned a positive Plus/Minus in every game this season. He is second behind George in scoring on the Clippers, shooting a career-high 51.3% from the field and 40.3% from behind the arc.
Morris has also increased his peripherals as he is playing over 30 minutes per game for the first time since joining the Clippers in the 2019-20 season. If George gets ruled out, Morris will look even better. Playing against this atrocious Pistons defense, Morris will likely get whatever shot he wants. Prioritize Morris on FanDuel, but with the minutes rising and George potentially out tonight, Morris is one of the better values on the slate.
Fast Break
Jerami Grant has been fantastic for the Trail Blazers. He has been a bit of a journeyman, but in his first year with the Trail Blazers, Grant is averaging 21.3 points per game while shooting over 50% from the field and 49.3% from downtown. Over the last four games, Grant has averaged 29 points per game while shooting 56.9% from the field while making at least four 3-pointers in each game. During that stretch, Grant is playing 38.3 minutes and averaging 47 DraftKings points per game. He is cooking right now and deserves consideration as one of the best plays on the slate.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Domantas Sabonis continues to do it all for the Kings. He is second behind Fox in scoring but leads the team in rebounds and assists. Sabonis has averaged a double-double with rebounds for five-straight seasons, but his assist numbers continue to climb. Over the last eight games, Sabonis has recorded six or more assists in each game. He is a triple-double threat every time he touches the floor.
The Spurs rank 25th in Rebounding Percentage, last in points allowed, and tied for last in assists per game allowed. If there was ever a game to predict a Sabonis triple-double, it would be tonight. He should have no trouble sifting through this poor defense with the Kings’ very high implied team total. Sabonis has the third-highest ceiling projection in our Tournament Model and remains at a great salary across the industry.
Value
Clippers center Ivica Zubac has the highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings. The last two games have been very poor from Zubac, but we know the double-double upside is there. Having Sabonis as a power forward on FanDuel makes Zubac an even better option as a value center. It also helps this is an excellent matchup against the Pistons.
The Pistons have allowed the fifth-most points in the paint this season at 53.3 per game. Zubac is averaging a double-double for the first time in his career while also averaging a career-high 2.1 blocks per game. He has dominated the paint this season, and tonight should be no different. The Pistons are also a below-average rebounding team, so another double-double seems likely.
Fast Break
The center position is somewhat loaded on this slate, with options in every pricing tier. Jakob Poeltl is likely the next best option to pay up for at center other than Sabonis. He is coming off his best game of the season with 31 points and 14 rebounds as he shot a ridiculous 14 of 17 from the field. Poeltl finished with a season-high 57.5 DraftKings points, and he is also averaging a double-double for the first time in his career.
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