Thursday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
Jalen Brunson has been priced up to $8,500 on DraftKings, which feels a bit ridiculous on the surface. However, it’s more than justified given his recent play. He’s racked up at least 38.2 minutes in three straight games, and he’s scored at least 37.0 DraftKings points in each of those contests. He was at his best in his last game, finishing with 48.0 DraftKings points, and he should be asked to carry a similar workload on Thursday. Not only is Luka Doncic still out of the lineup, but Tim Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke have also entered health and safety protocols. Brunson has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute with Doncic and THJ off the court this season.
Value
Things are dire for the Knicks’ backcourt at the moment. Derrick Rose will miss at least the next eight weeks after undergoing ankle surgery, while Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, and Miles McBride are all in health and safety protocols.
That’s forced Tom Thibodeau to dust of Kemba Walker recently. Walker has logged at least 37.4 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s racked up at least 41.0 DraftKings points in both contests. Walker has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute this season, so there’s no reason to expect much of a decline on Thursday.
Fast Break
Delon Wright started at point guard for the Hawks on Wednesday, and he should make another start Thursday vs. the 76ers. He played more than 38.5 minutes in his last game and finished with 26.25 DraftKings. That was good enough to return value, but there are reasons to believe he can improve on Thursday. Wright is currently projected for 37 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +9.03 when projected for at least 30 minutes (per the Trends tool).
Steph Curry has cooled off after a torrid start to the season, posting an average Plus/Minus of -9.94 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. That’s caused his price tag to drop to just $9,700 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. He could see a few additional shot attempts with Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole out of the lineup, so he’s an elite buy-low option.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Timberwolves have a tough matchup vs. the Jazz, but they have the potential to be pretty shorthanded in the backcourt. Anthony Edwards and Patrick Beverley have already been ruled out, while Jaylen Nowell is questionable with a thumb injury.
That should mean plenty of minutes for D’Angelo Russell. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.1% and his assist rate by +15.4% with Edwards and Beverley off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.11 DraftKings points per minute. He’s also shot the ball dreadfully in that situation – he owns an effective field goal percentage of just 42.6% – so he can improve on that mark moving forward.
Value
Cam Reddish stands out as another elite source of value for the shorthanded Hawks. He led the team with 42.4 minutes and a 29.2 usage rate on Wednesday, and he responded with 51.5 DraftKings points. He’s a bit more expensive on Thursday, but he’s still massively underpriced given his current role.
Fast Break
Malik Beasley also deserves some consideration for the Timberwolves. He’s racked up at least 30.4 minutes in three straight games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of them. He’s increased his production to 0.88 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models.
Caris LeVert continues to provide strong value on FanDuel. His $6,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he has the potential for a big game on Thursday. Malcolm Brogdon is currently questionable, and LeVert finished with 49.1 FanDuel points over 37.5 minutes the last time Brogdon was out of the lineup.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James has gotten very expensive across the industry, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three of his past four games. However, he should continue to see a slight boost in value with Anthony Davis out of the lineup. James has increased his production to 1.40 DraftKings points per minute with AD off the floor, and he’s currently projected for 37 minutes. He also owns a solid matchup vs. the Spurs, who have played at the seventh-fastest pace this season.
Value
Hamidou Diallo has gotten plenty of burn for the Pistons recently. He’s logged at least 29.5 minutes in back-to-back games, and Diallo is an excellent per-minute producer for his price tag. He’s averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s unsurprisingly returned value in each of his past two games. Diallo is currently projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models, and Diallo has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +8.88 with a comparable salary and minute projection.
Fast Break
Josh Hart has carried a massive workload for the Pelicans recently, logging at least 40.8 minutes in back-to-back games. He’s responded with at least 40.75 DraftKings points in both contests, and his role doesn’t figure to decrease on Thursday. The team will be without Jonas Valanciunas and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Hart has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute with both players off the court.
Tobias Harris stands out as one of the best pure values on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $7,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he’s coming off 41.4 minutes and 38.9 FanDuel points in his last outing.
Power Forward
Stud
Julius Randle leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $8,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. Randle hasn’t been the same dominant per-minute force that he was last season, but he’s still averaged a respectable 1.12 FanDuel points per minute. He’s played around 40 minutes in each of his past two games, so that’s good enough for him to potentially return value at his current salary. The Wizards are also a solid matchup, ranking 19th in defensive efficiency.
Value
Power forward is one of the least appealing positions on today’s slate, but Otto Porter should be a decent source of value. He’s an excellent producer for his price tag – he’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute – and he should see a few additional minutes given the Warriors’ current absences. He’s racked up 31.25 DraftKings points over 29.5 minutes in his last game, and I would expect similar production on Thursday.
Fast Break
If you’re looking to go even cheaper, Trey Lyles is a possible option at $3,600. He’s increased his production to 1.00 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s racked up at least 23.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He’s played 18.5 minutes or less in each of those contests, so he doesn’t need much playing time to provide value.
John Collins should be able to provide stud-like production at a slight discount on Thursday. He played nearly 41 minutes in the Hawks’ last game, and he’s seen a slight boost in production with Trae Young and Clint Capela off the court this season. Both players remain out of the lineup on Thursday, so Collins has the potential for another big game.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic is coming off his worst game in ages on Wednesday, finishing with just 29.25 DraftKings points vs. the Thunder. He only played 24.9 minutes in a blowout loss, but that’s still nowhere near the per-minute production we’ve come to expect from Jokic.
Still, there’s no reason to doubt Jokic at this point. He’s been the best fantasy player in the league this season, and he’s averaged an elite 1.82 DraftKings points per minute. He also draws one of the best matchups in fantasy Thursday vs. the Hornets. They rank third in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency, and the Nuggets’ implied team total of 116.75 ranks second on the slate. In other words, Jokic could have a field day in this matchup.
Value
Guillermo Hernangomez has been one of the best per-minute producers in fantasy this season. He’s averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute, and he should see a nice spike in playing time on Thursday. He’s a candidate to replace Valanciunas in the starting lineup, and Hernangomez is currently projected for 26 minutes in our NBA Models. If he sees that much playing time, he’s going to smash his current price tag.
Fast Break
DeMarcus Cousins has posted back-to-back games with at least 33.5 DraftKings points, and he remains very reasonably priced at just $4,700 on DraftKings. He could also carry lower ownership with most of the attention being focused on Hernangomez, which makes him an excellent pivot in GPPs. You can also play both players together, and they grade out as two of the best values on the entire slate.
Joel Embiid is another interesting GPP pivot. He’s coming off a massive game in his last contest, and his $10,700 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’ll likely carry less ownership than Jokic, but both players have similar median and ceiling projections in our NBA Models.
