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NBA DFS Breakdown (Sunday, Mar. 27): Dre Day

Sunday features a six-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

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Point Guard

Stud

Kyrie Irving ($10,500) has been all over the map in terms of fantasy production over the last six games. He’s coming off a 29-DraftKings-points performance against the Heat and went for 38.5 against the Celtics. Those just happen to be two of the top defensive teams in the league. In the other four, he went over 60 DraftKings points three times with a high of 87! The Hornets are fifth in offensive pace, 23rd in defensive rating, and boost the FPPM to point guards by 5.43% above the league average. This game has the highest total on the Vegas Dashboard at 238.5.

Value

Payton Pritchard ($3,800) doesn’t start and only plays around 20 minutes per game. That said, he’s averaging 1.00 FP/Min over the last month and has put up 21.75, 28.25, 28.5, and 36.25 DraftKings points over the last four games. He’s scored in double figures and racked up at least one steal in each contest. Minnesota plays at the fastest pace in the league, so the environment should be a good one.

Fast Break

Tomas Satoransky ($3,800) isn’t an exciting option, as he’s only averaging 0.77 FP/Min over the past month, but he’s starting and should see around 28 minutes.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Terry Rozier ($7,100) is averaging 1.05 FP/Min, so he will likely end up in the 30-DraftKings points range. That said, he’s gone over 50 DraftKings points eight times this season, with two over 60. The last time these teams met, he went for 55.5 DraftKings points.

Value

Gary Payton II ($3,900) is a low-usage player, but he’s averaging 0.94 FP/Min on the season. Over the last two games, he’s played 30 and 27 minutes, producing 27.5 and 20.75 DraftKings points. The Wizards are 25th in defensive rating.

Fast Break

Deni Avdija ($5,000) has averaged 29.9 minutes, 14.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 0.8 steals over the last four games. That’s translated to 42.5, 20.5, 30.25, and 31.5 DraftKings points.

Small Forward

Stud

Kevin Durant ($11,000) is averaging 1.4 FP/Min on the season. He’s one of the most unstoppable offensive forces in the league and has 70-DraftKings-points upside. That said, there is a modicum of risk, as Kyrie Irving can go bonkers on any given night as well. The last time these teams met, Irving went for 50 points while Durant only attempted 13 shots. This game environment is the juiciest on the slate, so both could go off.

Value

Grant Williams ($3,600) will likely get the start with Al Horford out. In 17 starts this season, Williams has averaged 30.6 minutes, 11.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.6 steals, and 0.9 blocks. He’s gone over 30 DraftKings points in four of those contests. Minnesota plays at the fastest pace in the league.

Fast Break

Miles Bridges ($7,300) averages 1.07 FP/Min on the season. Over the last seven games, he’s gone for at least 40 DraftKings points in five games with two of those over 50. He thrives in uptempo affairs, and this should be right up his alley.

Power Forward

Stud

LeBron James ($11,200) is questionable for this game. What else is new? With the Lakers clinging to the ninth spot in the Western Conference, only ahead of the 11th-seeded Spurs by one game in the win column, I find it difficult to see James sitting this one. He’s averaging 1.49 FP/Min on the season and has ramped that up to 1.53 this month. Over the last three games, he’s gone for 76.75, 62, and 61.25 DraftKings points. The Pelicans boost the FPPM to small forwards by 12.18% above the league average.

Value

Jonathan Kuminga ($4,000) was inserted into the starting lineup on Friday and bombed, producing 8.5 DraftKings points in 15 minutes. In the prior 10 games, though, he had one sub-10-DraftKings-points game but went over 20 in eight others, with two over 30. IF he starts, the ownership will likely be low due to recency bias, but the upside is still there. The Wizards have boosted the FPPM to power forwards by 4.39% above the league average.

Fast Break

Jayson Tatum ($9,600) is coming off a 37.75-DraftKings-points game, but that was because he only played 29 minutes in a 28-point blowout win. In the prior 10 games, he went for at least 50 DraftKings points in eight of those contests with three above 60.

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Center

Stud

Andre Drummond ($5,600) is averaging 1.34 FP/Min on the season. The issue is that the playing time has been all over the place. Over the last 10 games, he’s played fewer than 20 minutes four times with only two games above 25. That said, this is a juicy environment, and the last time he faced the Hornets, he went for 47.5 DraftKings points in 25 minutes.

Value

Dwight Powell ($4,500) has averaged 25.2 minutes, 12.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 0.7 blocks over the last 10 games. He’s scored under 20 DraftKings points three times, but he’s gone over 20 seven times with 41 and 50-DraftKings-points games. The range of outcomes is wide. That said, the game environment should be a good one.

Fast Break

Mason Plumlee ($4,400) has been all over the map like Drummond. Over the last 10 games, he’s played fewer than 20 minutes two times and scored under 10 DraftKings points once. He’s gone for at least 20 DraftKings points in seven games with four above 30 and a high of 40.25. The last time he faced Brooklyn, he played 20 minutes and put up 19.75 DraftKings points.

Sunday features a six-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Point Guard

Stud

Kyrie Irving ($10,500) has been all over the map in terms of fantasy production over the last six games. He’s coming off a 29-DraftKings-points performance against the Heat and went for 38.5 against the Celtics. Those just happen to be two of the top defensive teams in the league. In the other four, he went over 60 DraftKings points three times with a high of 87! The Hornets are fifth in offensive pace, 23rd in defensive rating, and boost the FPPM to point guards by 5.43% above the league average. This game has the highest total on the Vegas Dashboard at 238.5.

Value

Payton Pritchard ($3,800) doesn’t start and only plays around 20 minutes per game. That said, he’s averaging 1.00 FP/Min over the last month and has put up 21.75, 28.25, 28.5, and 36.25 DraftKings points over the last four games. He’s scored in double figures and racked up at least one steal in each contest. Minnesota plays at the fastest pace in the league, so the environment should be a good one.

Fast Break

Tomas Satoransky ($3,800) isn’t an exciting option, as he’s only averaging 0.77 FP/Min over the past month, but he’s starting and should see around 28 minutes.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Terry Rozier ($7,100) is averaging 1.05 FP/Min, so he will likely end up in the 30-DraftKings points range. That said, he’s gone over 50 DraftKings points eight times this season, with two over 60. The last time these teams met, he went for 55.5 DraftKings points.

Value

Gary Payton II ($3,900) is a low-usage player, but he’s averaging 0.94 FP/Min on the season. Over the last two games, he’s played 30 and 27 minutes, producing 27.5 and 20.75 DraftKings points. The Wizards are 25th in defensive rating.

Fast Break

Deni Avdija ($5,000) has averaged 29.9 minutes, 14.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 0.8 steals over the last four games. That’s translated to 42.5, 20.5, 30.25, and 31.5 DraftKings points.

Small Forward

Stud

Kevin Durant ($11,000) is averaging 1.4 FP/Min on the season. He’s one of the most unstoppable offensive forces in the league and has 70-DraftKings-points upside. That said, there is a modicum of risk, as Kyrie Irving can go bonkers on any given night as well. The last time these teams met, Irving went for 50 points while Durant only attempted 13 shots. This game environment is the juiciest on the slate, so both could go off.

Value

Grant Williams ($3,600) will likely get the start with Al Horford out. In 17 starts this season, Williams has averaged 30.6 minutes, 11.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.6 steals, and 0.9 blocks. He’s gone over 30 DraftKings points in four of those contests. Minnesota plays at the fastest pace in the league.

Fast Break

Miles Bridges ($7,300) averages 1.07 FP/Min on the season. Over the last seven games, he’s gone for at least 40 DraftKings points in five games with two of those over 50. He thrives in uptempo affairs, and this should be right up his alley.

Power Forward

Stud

LeBron James ($11,200) is questionable for this game. What else is new? With the Lakers clinging to the ninth spot in the Western Conference, only ahead of the 11th-seeded Spurs by one game in the win column, I find it difficult to see James sitting this one. He’s averaging 1.49 FP/Min on the season and has ramped that up to 1.53 this month. Over the last three games, he’s gone for 76.75, 62, and 61.25 DraftKings points. The Pelicans boost the FPPM to small forwards by 12.18% above the league average.

Value

Jonathan Kuminga ($4,000) was inserted into the starting lineup on Friday and bombed, producing 8.5 DraftKings points in 15 minutes. In the prior 10 games, though, he had one sub-10-DraftKings-points game but went over 20 in eight others, with two over 30. IF he starts, the ownership will likely be low due to recency bias, but the upside is still there. The Wizards have boosted the FPPM to power forwards by 4.39% above the league average.

Fast Break

Jayson Tatum ($9,600) is coming off a 37.75-DraftKings-points game, but that was because he only played 29 minutes in a 28-point blowout win. In the prior 10 games, he went for at least 50 DraftKings points in eight of those contests with three above 60.

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Center

Stud

Andre Drummond ($5,600) is averaging 1.34 FP/Min on the season. The issue is that the playing time has been all over the place. Over the last 10 games, he’s played fewer than 20 minutes four times with only two games above 25. That said, this is a juicy environment, and the last time he faced the Hornets, he went for 47.5 DraftKings points in 25 minutes.

Value

Dwight Powell ($4,500) has averaged 25.2 minutes, 12.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 0.7 blocks over the last 10 games. He’s scored under 20 DraftKings points three times, but he’s gone over 20 seven times with 41 and 50-DraftKings-points games. The range of outcomes is wide. That said, the game environment should be a good one.

Fast Break

Mason Plumlee ($4,400) has been all over the map like Drummond. Over the last 10 games, he’s played fewer than 20 minutes two times and scored under 10 DraftKings points once. He’s gone for at least 20 DraftKings points in seven games with four above 30 and a high of 40.25. The last time he faced Brooklyn, he played 20 minutes and put up 19.75 DraftKings points.