Let’s get to it.
Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors (-4)
Implied Total: 98 – 102, O/U: 200
The best Defensive Rating since the All-Star Break meets the second-overall defense in terms of DraftKings points allowed to point guards over their last 10 games (top-five allowed to shooting guards). In turn, Kyle Lowry might be a terrific tournament option (as shown by his highest projected floor among point guards), but he certainly isn’t mandatory in cash. Though enticing, for example, his Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.99 is only the eighth-highest at his position.
As far as surrounding tournament plays for Toronto, DeMar DeRozan (who is a +8.4 points better than the next closest guard in this slate over the last month) and Jonas Valanciunas remain in that category. Valanciunas has an absurdly cheap Bargain Rating of 93% at DraftKings and benefits from an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.21 points allowed to centers. Regarding Paul Millsap (in cash, at least), note that Toronto has limited opposing power forwards of his salary to -3.3 points below expectations.
Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs (-14.5)
Implied Total: 93.5 – 108, O/U: 202
With a Bargain Rating of 93% at DraftKings, Derrick Rose is certainly cash viable despite his less-than-stellar matchup. This season, he has averaged an additional +8.8 DraftKings points on a usage rate that is +5.1% higher without Jimmy Butler (out). Pau Gasol is also considered an elite option at DraftKings due to his salary difference of -$1,200. He has averaged a line of 17.2-11.3-6.4 on a team-high 32.9 minutes without Butler. Taj Gibson remains more of a tournament option (though likely to be highly under-owned), as he has averaged 37.2 minutes in back-to-back performances.
With Tony Parker expected to play, Patty Mills and Andre Miller return to being more fringe-tournament options. Seeing as how Tim Duncan sat out only due to rest in his last game, Kawhi Leonard should still be treated as a demigod. Note that, although LaMarcus Aldridge is a value due to his Bargain Rating of 95% at DraftKings and is now averaging 32.4 DraftKings points on a team-high usage of 26.4% without their starting center, he has also averaged -1.9 fewer raw points alongside Duncan. And speaking of Duncan, he remains the protagonist of San Antonio tournament options, although with a projected floor of 8.2 points he is slated to oppose the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to centers in this slate.
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets (-8.5)
Implied Total: 11.5 – 103, O/U: 214.5
Our models show Emmanuel Mudiay with the highest Projected Plus/Minus among point guards. Given that this total is +5.5 points greater than the next closest, he should already be locked-in as one of your guards. The Suns also have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.72 allowed to point guards of his salary. Oh, and (as if you need anymore reasoning) he’s exceeded expectations by +12.03 points since Danilo Gallinari went down.
While you can get away with rostering a powerhouse-center for cheap at DraftKings, the options at FanDuel (in cash, anyways) appear to be watered down to Alex Len and Nikola Jokic. Not that I need to tell you about Len’s recent surge, but he has exceeded expectations by +13.75 points over his last 10 performances. Even so, Jokic has produced 34 DraftKings points in 27.2 minutes over his last five games. Both are terrific options, but Len (with a Dud Percentage of 0% in his last nine games) gets the nod.
Brandon Knight was active last night against New York but remained glued to the bench for the entirety of play (an event I’m assuming will continue for the next week, at least); rather, Ronnie Price has mirrored Devin Booker’s minutes (38.2) in their last three outings. While Price remains a cheap tournament play at FanDuel (where he has a Bargain Rating of 93%), Booker has quietly entered the cash discussion, averaging 39.3 DraftKings points over his last four games. Kenneth Faried should receive the same treatment as Booker. Outside of his lone performance against the Lakers in which he battled back issues, he has logged at least 27 minutes in every outing without Gallinari.
Cleveland Cavaliers (-9.5) at Los Angeles Lakers
Implied Total: 109.3 – 99.8, O/U: 209
D’Angelo Russell has obviously been out of his mind as of late, but his salary at FanDuel now includes a differential of only -$200 when compared to Kyrie Irving. Irving is held in higher regards at DraftKings where his salary is actually +$500 greater. For this slate, note that Irving has a much more advantageous Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.71. Given their respective values independently, Russell should warrant greater consideration at DraftKings while Irving remains in play across sites.
Assuming no one rests for Cleveland (which, mind you, is a terrible assumption), Jordan Clarkson would remain a terrific cash play (as he wouldn’t be lined up opposite of Iman Shumpert). Clarkson, of course, has exceeded expectations in 80% of his last 10 performances, logging the most minutes for Los Angeles whether Kobe Bryant (questionable) has been active or not. He’s much more valuable at FanDuel where, in qualifying at shooting guard, he has a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Despite his most recent performance of 42.75 DraftKings points (and 34.6 over his last five), Julius Randle should be used solely in tournaments given his matchup: Cleveland has limited opposing power forwards of his salary to -3.54 points below expectations. Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson (as long as Timofey Mozgov is ruled out again) are more than viable in cash at FanDuel. Love remains ridiculously underpriced ($6,800, compared to his DraftKings salary of $7,200), while Thompson is now averaging 31.8 minutes in 29 starts this season.
Good luck!
