I realize it’s New Years and all, but we’re only hours away from a six-game slate that features $10K salaries and values alike (as well as a few game-time calls that are worth monitoring). Put down the champagne glass, if only for a moment, and dive into our game-by-game breakdown.
Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers (-8)
Implied Total: 102 – 96, O/U: 200.5
The lot of Ian Mahinmi (knee), C.J. Miles (back), and Jordan Hill (dental work, the greatest injury status ever) are all either questionable or doubtful to play tonight, leaving both Lavoy Allen and Myles Turner as viable options if only for the sheer minutes. Once Mahinmi exited early last night, Allen was forced to log 38 minutes of court time, eventually finishing with 28 DraftKings points. Though that was only his second instance of scoring greater than 20 points in the last eight games, Allen has now logged at least 25 minutes in four of his last six, exceeding his implied total of 14.81 in 50% of performances over that span. Our models currently have him projected to play 24.9 minutes, though that would likely receive a rather large uptick if any of the aforementioned players are officially ruled out.
Michael Carter-Williams had lost minutes to Jerryd Bayless on the first leg of their most recent back-to-back but scored 47.25 DraftKings points in 31 minutes the following night. The Pacers have allowed +1.3 points above expectations to point guards, but our models show Carter-Williams with a Projected Plus/Minus of -2.3 points (due to his projection being -2.3 points fewer than his implied total of 29.53). He also has a porous Rating 39.68 in our Cash model and, for the time being, remains best used in tournaments (especially at FanDuel where he holds an 84% Bargain Rating).
Khris Middleton remains an eater of minutes (the unofficial Terraria spinoff), having stayed above 30 in 18 consecutive games. In his last 10 alone, Middleton has exceeded his expectations by +9.04 points, essentially outscoring the implications of his salary a ridiculous 80% of the time.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Detroit Pistons (-7)
Implied Total: 103.8 – 96.3, O/U: 200
Even in being the only center that DraftKings refuses to underprice, Andre Drummond has exceeded his expectations by an average of +3.27 points in his last 10 games. His projected ceiling of 67.8 points is 4.4 points greater than that of DeAndre Jordan’s, though Jordan is $1,800 cheaper.
Eryan Ilyasova has quietly logged at least 24 minutes in 10 of his last 11 games, exceeding his expectations on 50% of his performances in December. It bodes well for him that the T’Wolves have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.8 points allowed to power forwards.
Karl-Anthony Towns is the king of Fantasy Labs tonight as he sits atop both our Tournament and Cash models. Hand him his sceptre and get out of the way: the Pistons allow a whopping +3 points above expectations to opposing centers. Same goes for Gorgui Dieng who, remaining criminally underpriced at FanDuel, has played fewer than 25 minutes only once in his last eight games. In his last 10 alone, Dieng has overshot the expectations of his salary by an average of 6.13 points.
Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets (-1.5)
Implied Total: 105.8 – 104.3, O/U: 210
In a Stephen Curry-less world, it’s the Rockets who are implied to score more points than the Warriors. These are tough times, but it’s not shocking in the least bit if you caught any of last night’s game. Andrew Bogut logged 14.2 minutes in the first half as the Mavericks led by 18 at the break, and it was exactly as we feared: Klay Thompson, for all his greatness, wasn’t able to create his own shot, while Shaun Livingston (their point guard, mind you) passed the ball at a frequency of 9.9%, fifth-best on the team. If Curry sits out again (which is looking more likely than not), I’d assume we see additional minutes dispersed to the combination of Ian Clark and Andre Iguodala, in some form or another. Note Draymond Green still costs $9,300, and though our models show him with a projected ceiling of 51.5 points, he failed to reach his implied total by 9.74 points last night.
If the Rockets are to make any type of turnaround, Ty Lawson will be at the helm. Having logged at least 25 minutes in three of his last four games, Lawson has averaged 20.8 DraftKings points over that span. In the last three games, Patrick Beverley hasn’t exceeded 22 minutes (though he still comes with a 93% Bargain Rating at FanDuel).
Dwight Howard scored 58.5 DraftKings points on 12 field goal attempts in his last outing, the most he’s taken since November 29. Golden State has a median Opponent Plus/Minus of limiting opposing centers to -0.2 points below expectations, but Howard’s production likely hinges on the subjective outlook of which rotation you think the Warriors will lean on most frequently. Small-ball (featuring Green at the five-spot) is certainly in play as these two teams have a combined Pace of 201.8 and remain the only two averaging at least 99.98 possessions per 48 minutes in tonight’s slate.
Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City (-15)
Implied Total: 113.8 – 98.8, O/U: 212.5
In his first two games without Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight was dealt the Cavaliers (who have limited opposing guards to -0.1 points fewer than expected) and Spurs (who have limited everyone to below everything). The Thunder, on the other hand, have allowed opposing guards to score +0.9 points greater than expected, meaning it’s as good of time as any to roll out Knight’s projected floor of 21.5 points (especially at FanDuel where he has a Bargain Rating of 95%). If pivoting away from Phoenix guards altogether, it remains worth nothing that the Thunder have the third-highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to power forwards in tonight’s slate.
Los Angeles Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans (-2.5)
Implied Total: 105.3 – 102.8, O/U: 208
J.J. Redick has scored at least 29 DraftKings points in two of his three games played without Blake Griffin, but both he and Jamal Crawford remain easier to roster at FanDuel where both have a Bargain Rating in the mid-90’s (Crawford especially, who remains priced only $100 above the absolute minimum). Still, the Clippers guard always worth considering is Chris Paul.
Paul has now exceeded his expectations in 80% of his last 10 games. Though his salary was bumped up to $9,000 (and currently sits at $9,100) once Griffin went down, Paul has averaged the implied total of a player that costs $9,600 in those three games. Paul Pierce has either doubled or scored double-digits above his implied total over that span.
While most will be out on Anthony Davis following another early exit, the Clippers Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to power forwards is the second-highest of tonight’s slate (only to be outdone by Minnesota). It’s also of note that Los Angeles has allowed at least +0.9 points above expectations to opposing front courts, meaning Tyreke Evans has a plus-matchup no matter the rotation — Evans has scored at least 33.5 DraftKings points in four of his last five games, 41.5 in three of four.
Portland Trailblazers at Utah Jazz (-3.5)
Implied Total: 97.3 – 93.8, O/U: 191
Though 191 is far and away the lowest total of the evening, there are two separate caveats that need monitoring until tip-off.
First and foremost, C.J. McCollum will likely rise to the top of our models at shooting guard if Damon Lilliard were to sit. The Trailblazers have played only one game in their last four in which McCollum was needed at all times, and in that one game he scored 74.25 DraftKings points. Without Lilliard, his usage should remain somewhere around 29, which would rank second only to James Harden at shooting guard (unless we’re actually counting Andrew Wiggins as a guard, in which case McCollum would rank third).
Finally, whether or not Derrick Favors takes the court also remains of the utmost importance. Without him, Jeff Withey has scored 20.69 and 16.44 points more than his implied total of 14.81. Gordon Hayward, who ranks second in our Tournament Model with an overall Rating of 67.96, has averaged +3.41 points more than expected in that same two-game span.
Good luck tonight.
