Can’t wait a full week for NBA DFS to return? Don’t worry, you can still get your fix with the NBA Rising Stars game. This game kicks off the festivities for All-Star weekend and features two teams comprised of 10 rookies and sophomores each. This game has featured a lot of formats over the years, but the current iteration consists of the USA vs. the World. The World team is currently a three-point favorite, and the total sits at 296.5.
On the surface, this game does seem largely unpredictable. Most players will see between 15 and 25 minutes, with some of the bigger names serving as possible exceptions. Over the past two games, only Kristaps Porzingis cracked the 30-minute mark, and Andrew Wiggins just missed it at 29.5. Only two other players have approached the same level of playing time in the past decade: Damian Lillard in 2014 and DeJuan Blair in 2010 (lol). With playing time mostly equal, it’s going to come down to how shots are distributed.
That said, there do appear to be a few trends from the past few years that we can use to gain an edge in this format. Let’s dive in.
The Format
Both DraftKings and FanDuel will offer guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) for this game, but each site features a slightly different format. It’s pretty simple on DraftKings: Pick six players regardless of position while staying under the salary cap of $50,000. It’s a little more complicated on FanDuel. You have to select one guard, one forward/center, and three utility players, with one serving as the team “MVP.” This player earns 1.5x value, which adds another level of difficulty when building a lineup. Most people will likely just pick their most-expensive player as their MVP, so avoiding some of the obvious names for that role could increase your chances of having a contrarian lineup.
The Strategy
Like most All-Star games, defense is optional in this contest. This game has produced an average of over 301 points per game the past two seasons, resulting in an average of over 150 points per team. Given that this contest is only 40 minutes, that’s a ridiculous amount of offense. The teams have unsurprisingly shot well from the field, with no team shooting worse than 56 percent over the past two games. That has limited the number of available rebounds, which does somewhat decrease the value of the big men in this contest. You can forget about blocks, too: There have been just four total over the past two years. Basically, the majority of the fantasy scoring in this game is going to come from actual scoring.
Another factor that pushes the needle in the direction of guards is how the points in this game have increasingly been scored. When they changed the format to USA vs. the World three years ago, the two teams combined to shoot just 52 3-pointers. That number increased to 84 in 2016 before peaking at 95 last season. Teams are shooting more 3s than ever in regular season NBA games, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see these teams crack the triple-digit mark tonight.
The sheer volume of 3-pointers obviously increases the value for guys that are prolific from long range. Here are the top-scoring players from the past two years:
- Jamal Murray (2017) – 36 points, nine 3-pointers made
- Frank Kaminsky (2017) – 33 points, nine 3-pointers made
- Buddy Hield (2017) – 28 points, three 3-pointers made
- Emmanuel Mudiay (2016) – 30 points, five 3-pointers made
- Kristaps Porzingis (2016) – 30 points, five 3-pointers made
- Zach LaVine (2016) – 30 points, two 3-pointers made
- Andrew Wiggins (2016) – 29 points, zero 3-pointers made
It seems like you really want guys who can fill it up from deep, especially on DraftKings given the 0.5-point bonus for 3-pointers. Otherwise, you’re going to want to target elite athletes capable of putting on a show with their dunking ability. Guys who can’t do either appear to be the types you want to avoid.
The Rosters
Team USA
Kris Dunn, Donovan Mitchell, Dennis Smith Jr., De’Aaron Fox, Jaylen Brown, Brandon Ingram, Jayson Tatum, Taurean Prince, John Collins, Kyle Kuzma
This team is heavy at the guard position between Dunn, Mitchell, DSJ, and Fox, which could ultimately decrease the minutes for all four. None of these options are very prolific from behind the arc, with Mitchell leading the group with a 3-point percentage of 35.4 percent. Ultimately, him and Smith seem most likely to have a big game, although that is reflected in their price tags. Dunn feels like someone you want to avoid: He just came back from an injury, has shot just 30.5 percent from 3-point range over his first two seasons, and is not a prolific dunker (YouTube his hard fall vs. the Warriors if you dare).
The US team features a couple of intriguing wing players in Tatum and Brown. Tatum has been one of the most prolific 3-point shooters in the league this season, shooting a blistering 42.7 percent from behind the arc. He seems like a solid bargain on DraftKings, where his $7,000 salary makes him the sixth-cheapest player on the slate. Brown hasn’t been as good from behind the arc, but he’s still shooting a very respectable 37.8 percent. He has averaged 1.6 additional 3-pointers per game and has posted a higher usage rate than Tatum this season: He might be the better bet from a pure volume perspective.
While the US team is deep at the guard and wing positions, they’re lacking in the frontcourt. Their only true big man is Collins, but Kuzma will also likely serve as a small ball big man. That may not be a huge problem in an exhibition, but the World team does feature a lot of size. Both of these guys could wind up playing more minutes than some of their teammates just out of necessity. Of the two, Kuzma has the more appealing profile for this type of game. His average of 15.8 points per game ranks third among rookies, and he’s shot a respectable 36.2 percent from behind the arc.
Team World
Jamal Murray, Ben Simmons, Frank Ntilikina, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Dillon Brooks, Buddy Hield, Joel Embiid, Lauri Markkanen, Domantas Sabonis, Dario Saric
The World squad doesn’t have nearly the same depth as the US team at the PG position, but they might feature the best actual player in Simmons. That said, he seems like a prime fade candidate for this kind of contest. He relies on peripheral statistics to score his fantasy points, and those should be hard to come by. He’s also a dreadful shooter from outside the paint, so don’t expect him to launch many 3s. Murray put on a show in this contest last season and seems like a prime candidate to do so again. Finally, Ntilikina is the cheapest player on both sites and will likely be among the lowest-owned players. He might make sense as a contrarian option, but he doesn’t profile as a great fit for this format.
Hield and Bogdanovic are both prolific shooters, with Hield shooting 42.5 percent and Bogdanovic shooting 40.0 percent from behind the arc this season. They could both factor into the equation in this contest if they get enough minutes, with Hield the preferred option on FanDuel and Bogdanovic the preferred option on DraftKings.
Finally, the World team is loaded with skilled big men. Embiid is obviously the headliner, and he’s priced as the highest option on both sites. He’s a perfect fit for this contest: A usage machine with 3-point ability who loves the spotlight. The only issue is that he’s also playing the main All-Star Game on Sunday and has been battling an ankle issue. It’s possible he sees less minutes than expected. Markkanen and Saric also seem like perfect fits given their ability with the 3-ball, while Sabonis is more of a traditional big man.
Good luck!
Photo credit: Bob Donnan- USA TODAY Sports
