MLB Trend of the Day: Low PPG Hitters With Positive Differentials

At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.

With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that each weekday walk subscribers through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.

MLB Trend of the Day: Low PPG Hitters With Positive Differentials

One way to be contrarian is to lean on our recent advanced stats, even when DFS production lags behind. With all the tools at our disposal, I want to determine if hitters on DraftKings priced above their monthly point-per-game average have historically netted a positive Plus/Minus.

If hitters have been averaging less than their expected production over the past month, I assume that the disparity between recent performance and current salary typically places the hitter in a good position. That, or the player is in freefall but has a reputation that warrants a higher-end salary. I’m looking at you, Bryce Harper.

In screening low-scoring hitters for positive advanced stats, I surmise that we can find positive Plus/Minus players before the rest of the market does. If recent differentials all register positively, we should have a trend that can help locate players on the cusp of ascension.

Step 1: Fantasy Month Filters > Month PPG > 4 to 6.9

Narrowing the monthly point production to fewer than seven points provides us with almost a neutral Plus/Minus.

Step 2:  Player Filters > Salary > 4,000 to 4,500

A $4,000 hitter on DraftKings must score 7.6 points in order to meet expected value. Per DraftKings’ scoring system, it’s impossible for hitters to record fractions of a point.

Anyone averaging fewer than seven points over 30 days fails to meet value around $3,000. But if we’re looking for hitters who’ve provided fewer points per game compared to their current salary, we need to increase the salary filter to a range where their past production doesn’t justify the price.

Step 3: Fantasy Month Filters > Month Count > 10 to 30

In order to increase the likelihood of a player participating in today’s slate, we need to ensure that the player has participated in at least double-digit contests over the past month.

Through the first three steps, none of the filters have shifted the Plus/Minus significantly.

Step 4a: Adv Stats – Recent > Distance Diff > 1 to 30

Step 4b: Adv Stats – Recent > HH Diff > 1 to 24

Step 4c: Adv Stats – Recent > Exit Velocity Diff > 1 to 5

On their own, each advanced stat differential supplies a Plus/Minus no greater than +0.26 when combined with Steps 1-3. When all three positive differentials are included, batters see a +0.75 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. That is, batters averaging fewer than seven DK points over the past month and costing $4,000 to $4,500 exceed value with 44.6-percent Consistency.

Plus/Minus, Consistency, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.

Current Matches

Targeting players priced above their monthly DK PPG average can be beneficial if they have been hitting the ball comparatively well over the past 15 days.

The advanced stats tell us that these players have improved their batting over the past 15 days. Their monthly points per game gives the public a reason to shun them.