At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available to those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our “Trend of the Day” series features articles that walk subscribers through an important trend each weekday, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Model tools.
MLB Trend of the Day: High Pro-Trend National League Batters
When creating stacks for tournaments or targeting high-Upside batters for cash games, some DFS players intentionally target batters from American League teams because they assume that the presence of the designated hitters in AL lineups will give AL batters extra value that National League batters simply don’t have.
But is that assumption true?
Step 1: Team Filters > Division > “National League Central, East, and West”
As you can see, on DraftKings — and the trend also holds true for FanDuel — the average NL batter tends to have a positive Plus/Minus and the average AL batter tends to have a negative Plus/Minus.
As incredible as it sounds, the presence of the designated hitter in AL lineups seems to be a reason not to roster AL batters, as DFS platforms appear to have overvalued the importance of that player.
So (on average) NL batters yield more value than AL batters. What happens if we add some juice to this trend and target NL batters with a lot of Pro Trends?
Step 2: Trends > Pro Trends > “10 to 15”
That’s pretty decent. Are there any batters who currently match for the trend?
Current Matches
Platoon players Matthew Joyce and Sean Rodriguez are intriguing — but A) they aren’t projected to be in Pittsburgh’s starting lineup and, even if they were, B) they would be facing Cubs ace pitcher Jake Arrieta.
Tommy La Stella (another platoon player) is currently projected to start for the Cubs, and he is intriguing because he can be used as either a second or third baseman — but as a left-handed batter he typically faces right-handed pitchers. Slated to go against the left-handed Jon Niese (who is, admittedly, not great), La Stella has woeful Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and Isolated Power (ISO) splits (-.142/-.169) that cannot be ignored.
All of which means that you’re left with Mets outfielder Michael Conforto, who has 13 Pro Trends and numbers that are easy on the eyes (for instance, his 96 percent Bargain Rating). It’s probably not a surprise that he’s my selection for today’s Plays of the Day article.
The Takeaway
I’m probably going to dig deeper into the impact of the designated hitter on DFS value — maybe as early as tomorrow’s Labyrinthian. Keep an eye out for it.
Good luck!
